562 Highway 11c · Winthrop, NY 13697

$80,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 253 Days on market

Built 1880 0.45 ac lot $70/sqft · 47% below area Est $150k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

great new listing for you! lots of space and super nice inside. Call today for your showing

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1880

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $380 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,067 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Brasher Falls Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #499 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 253 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $80k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 253 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.34%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,623
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -46.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
369 State Highway 420	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,010 (-11%)	21mo	$127,000	$126	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $47,710
• Equity at exit: $50,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $121,454
• Equity at exit: $92,201

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13697

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,286/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $814

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $425	-5% $402	+0% $380	+5% $357	+10% $334
Rent	-10% $277	-5% $329	+0% $380	+5% $431	+10% $482
Rate	-1.0pp $420	-0.5pp $400	base $380	+0.5pp $359	+1.0pp $338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 253 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 250 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 249 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 248 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 246 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 245 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 242 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 241 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 240 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 239 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 236 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 235 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 234 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 233 DOM
16. 2025-10-10
    listed $80,000 Active 91-char remark

    Show marketing remark (91 chars)

    great new listing for you! lots of space and super nice inside. Call today for your showing

17. 2010-06-16
    soldstatus $35,000
18. 2004-10-19
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,286 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,286 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$2,286
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,243
• − Management: −$1,243
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $3,560
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$854
• After-tax cash flow: $3,703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brasher Falls Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627960
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,069
• Composite: 35.47/100
• National rank: #4926
• State rank: #499 of 590 in NY

Livability — Winthrop

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1067
• US rank: #21337

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winthrop, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,951

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 5% German 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.07%
• Current HPI: 305.4251
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+166.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-10 Listed $80,000 ACVMLS
• 2010-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,286 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.