45051 Bonny Ln · Lake Riverside, CA 92536

$398,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1987 18 ac lot $332/sqft · 79% above area Est $436k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated in the heart of Aguanga, California, this expansive 18.32-acre parcel presents a rare opportunity for astute investors and developers alike. This is an unique property that’s fully fenced with 2 manufactured Homes. Both featuring 3 bedroom 2 bathroom with amazing mountain views! Home 1 features kitchen and master bath with a walk-out deck to a patio zen garden. Home 2 has flooring and a fireplace for those cooler nights. Both homes need some TLC, but it's an opportunity to make it your own! A detached 2 car garage is perfect for storage. Boasting a strategic location and versatile terrain, this property offers immense potential for various development ventures, including but not limited to commercial, industrial, or mixed-use projects. From hosting weddings and haunted houses to offering camping or horseback retreats, this property is primed for diverse utilization. The western-style town, opening up to a large open area, includes a bathroom for guest use. Although located off a dirt road, access is easy. Don't miss out on this investment opportunity!

Key facts

• Small greenhouse
• Fully fenced
• Cahuilla mountains

Tags

• CAHUILLA MOUNTAINS
• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• FULLY FENCED
• DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• STORAGE SHED
• SMALL GREENHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $398k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-685 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (30.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (34.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,287 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $182k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,382 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.38%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $436,402
• List price: $398,000
• Delta: 11.82%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-8,339
• Equity at exit: $165,461

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $47,777
• Equity at exit: $244,959

Cash invested: $111,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92536

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,624 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,087
• Tax from tax record: −$505 /mo · $6,060/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $-685

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,491

Max offer price $276,956

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,500
• Closing costs: $11,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $398,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $398,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $398,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $398,000 Active 1 DOM
6. 2024-10-16
   price $488,000 1082-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1082 chars)

   Situated in the heart of Aguanga, California, this expansive 18.32-acre parcel presents a rare opportunity for astute investors and developers alike. This is an unique property that’s fully fenced with 2 manufactured Homes. Both featuring 3 bedroom 2 bathroom with amazing mountain views! Home 1 features kitchen and master bath with a walk-out deck to a patio zen garden. Home 2 has flooring and a fireplace for those cooler nights. Both homes need some TLC, but it's an opportunity to make it your own! A detached 2 car garage is perfect for storage. Boasting a strategic location and versatile terrain, this property offers immense potential for various development ventures, including but not limited to commercial, industrial, or mixed-use projects. From hosting weddings and haunted houses to offering camping or horseback retreats, this property is primed for diverse utilization. The western-style town, opening up to a large open area, includes a bathroom for guest use. Although located off a dirt road, access is easy. Don't miss out on this investment opportunity!

7. 2024-07-22
   price $508,000 1082-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1082 chars)

   Situated in the heart of Aguanga, California, this expansive 18.32-acre parcel presents a rare opportunity for astute investors and developers alike. This is an unique property that’s fully fenced with 2 manufactured Homes. Both featuring 3 bedroom 2 bathroom with amazing mountain views! Home 1 features kitchen and master bath with a walk-out deck to a patio zen garden. Home 2 has flooring and a fireplace for those cooler nights. Both homes need some TLC, but it's an opportunity to make it your own! A detached 2 car garage is perfect for storage. Boasting a strategic location and versatile terrain, this property offers immense potential for various development ventures, including but not limited to commercial, industrial, or mixed-use projects. From hosting weddings and haunted houses to offering camping or horseback retreats, this property is primed for diverse utilization. The western-style town, opening up to a large open area, includes a bathroom for guest use. Although located off a dirt road, access is easy. Don't miss out on this investment opportunity!

8. 2024-06-17
   price $550,000 1082-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1082 chars)

   Situated in the heart of Aguanga, California, this expansive 18.32-acre parcel presents a rare opportunity for astute investors and developers alike. This is an unique property that’s fully fenced with 2 manufactured Homes. Both featuring 3 bedroom 2 bathroom with amazing mountain views! Home 1 features kitchen and master bath with a walk-out deck to a patio zen garden. Home 2 has flooring and a fireplace for those cooler nights. Both homes need some TLC, but it's an opportunity to make it your own! A detached 2 car garage is perfect for storage. Boasting a strategic location and versatile terrain, this property offers immense potential for various development ventures, including but not limited to commercial, industrial, or mixed-use projects. From hosting weddings and haunted houses to offering camping or horseback retreats, this property is primed for diverse utilization. The western-style town, opening up to a large open area, includes a bathroom for guest use. Although located off a dirt road, access is easy. Don't miss out on this investment opportunity!

9. 2024-04-24
   listed $580,000 Active 1082-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1082 chars)

   Situated in the heart of Aguanga, California, this expansive 18.32-acre parcel presents a rare opportunity for astute investors and developers alike. This is an unique property that’s fully fenced with 2 manufactured Homes. Both featuring 3 bedroom 2 bathroom with amazing mountain views! Home 1 features kitchen and master bath with a walk-out deck to a patio zen garden. Home 2 has flooring and a fireplace for those cooler nights. Both homes need some TLC, but it's an opportunity to make it your own! A detached 2 car garage is perfect for storage. Boasting a strategic location and versatile terrain, this property offers immense potential for various development ventures, including but not limited to commercial, industrial, or mixed-use projects. From hosting weddings and haunted houses to offering camping or horseback retreats, this property is primed for diverse utilization. The western-style town, opening up to a large open area, includes a bathroom for guest use. Although located off a dirt road, access is easy. Don't miss out on this investment opportunity!

10. 2024-03-31
    historical
11. 2023-11-30
    listed $688,000 Active
12. 2022-03-24
    status Pending Sale
13. 2022-03-24
    historical
14. 2021-12-13
    listed $668,000 Active
15. 2021-11-28
    historical
16. 2020-10-30
    soldstatus $500,000 Closed Sale
17. 2020-10-07
    status Pending Sale
18. 2020-09-10
    status Active
19. 2020-09-05
    historical $499,999
20. 2012-07-25
    soldstatus $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,060 · $505/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,060 · $505/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone D · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,294
• − Property taxes: −$6,060
• − Insurance: −$1,990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,519
• − Management: −$2,519
• − Depreciation: −$11,578
• Taxable loss: −$15,475
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,714
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Riverside

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1287
• US rank: #26526

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,749

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 25% Hispanic / Latino 17% Pacific Islander 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Current HPI: 353.9006
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+195.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2024-10-16 Price Changed $488,000 CRMLS
• 2024-07-22 Price Changed $508,000 CRMLS
• 2024-06-17 Price Changed $550,000 CRMLS
• 2024-04-24 Listed $580,000 CRMLS
• 2024-03-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-11-30 Listed $688,000 CRMLS
• 2022-03-24 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-03-24 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2021-12-13 Listed $668,000 CRMLS
• 2021-11-28 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2020-10-30 Sold (MLS) $500,000 CRMLS
• 2020-10-07 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-09-10 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2020-09-05 Coming Soon $499,999 CRMLS
• 2012-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,060 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.