1586 Potomac Heights Dr #231 · Oxon Hill, MD 20744

$249,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,969 sqft · Townhouse public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1973 5,024 sqft lot Est $345k · 27% under $290/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR SPECIAL! This charming towhouse in highly sought after Fort Washington offers tons of potential with a main level featuring a living room, kitchen and dining room. Upstairs features three large bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The full-footprint tall basement with 1 full bathroom presents endless possibilities and space to increase your rental or resale value. This property is ideally situated near major highways, dining, and shopping, making it a top contender for a reliable long-term rental, as well as a profitable fix-and-flip. Investors will love the upside potential and the high demand for updated homes in this growing area. With the right vision, this home can become a standout asset in your portfolio. The property is being sold AS-IS, so move quickly. Opportunities like this don’t last long! * * * SELLERS PREFER SANCTUARY TITLE FOR CLOSING * * *

Key facts

• $290 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($418/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $235k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.5% in Oxon Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#311 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, crime D, schools F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 179 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $136k; list at $250k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.60%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $344,575
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1475 Potomac Heights Dr #241	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,969 (0%)	0mo	$315,000	$160	95
1521 Potomac Heights Dr #273	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,969 (0%)	0mo	$342,500	$174	91
1353 Potomac Heights Dr #54	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,969 (0%)	3mo	$350,000	$178	89
1278 Palmer Rd #88	0.17mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,969 (0%)	1mo	$375,000	$190	87
1470 Potomac Heights Dr #126	0.13mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,969 (0%)	4mo	$375,000	$190	86
1540 Potomac Heights Dr #208	0.11mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,969 (0%)	7mo	$379,000	$192	84
1518 Potomac Heights Dr #197	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,969 (0%)	7mo	$325,000	$165	81
1342 Potomac Heights Dr #72	0.10mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,969 (0%)	14mo	$375,950	$191	79
1486 Potomac Heights Dr #134	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,969 (0%)	14mo	$340,000	$173	76
1212 Palmer Rd #121	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,969 (0%)	15mo	$345,000	$175	74
1580 Potomac Heights Dr #228	0.02mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,250 (+14%)	3mo	$349,555	$155	68
8875 Rusland Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,940 (-2%)	20mo	$300,280	$155	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-37,898
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-28,607
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20744

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,601 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,782/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$290
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,557

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1023 Spring Valley Ct Fort Washington, MD	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,500	$1.70	43d	1	0.21mi
8102 Carey Branch Dr Fort Washington, MD	3.0	2.5	2484	$2,700	$1.09	18d	1	0.72mi
9518 Blanchard Dr Fort Washington, MD	3.0	2.0	1250	$3,300	$2.64	43d	1	0.96mi
9102 Cooper Dr Fort Washington, MD	3.0	1.5	1400	$3,499	$2.50	43d	1	1.11mi
7521 Catone Ct Oxon Hill, MD	3.0	3.5	2048	$3,500	$1.71	24d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $290 · $3,480/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $249,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $249,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,900 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,900 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-03-27
   listed $249,900 Active 882-char remark

   Show marketing remark (882 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL! This charming towhouse in highly sought after Fort Washington offers tons of potential with a main level featuring a living room, kitchen and dining room. Upstairs features three large bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The full-footprint tall basement with 1 full bathroom presents endless possibilities and space to increase your rental or resale value. This property is ideally situated near major highways, dining, and shopping, making it a top contender for a reliable long-term rental, as well as a profitable fix-and-flip. Investors will love the upside potential and the high demand for updated homes in this growing area. With the right vision, this home can become a standout asset in your portfolio. The property is being sold AS-IS, so move quickly. Opportunities like this don’t last long! * * * SELLERS PREFER SANCTUARY TITLE FOR CLOSING * * *

9. 2026-03-26
   historical $249,900 882-char remark

   Show marketing remark (882 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL! This charming towhouse in highly sought after Fort Washington offers tons of potential with a main level featuring a living room, kitchen and dining room. Upstairs features three large bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The full-footprint tall basement with 1 full bathroom presents endless possibilities and space to increase your rental or resale value. This property is ideally situated near major highways, dining, and shopping, making it a top contender for a reliable long-term rental, as well as a profitable fix-and-flip. Investors will love the upside potential and the high demand for updated homes in this growing area. With the right vision, this home can become a standout asset in your portfolio. The property is being sold AS-IS, so move quickly. Opportunities like this don’t last long! * * * SELLERS PREFER SANCTUARY TITLE FOR CLOSING * * *

10. 2004-01-23
    soldstatus $136,000
11. 2003-05-27
    soldstatus $136,000
12. 2003-04-07
    historical
13. 2002-10-19
    listed $129,000
14. 1993-07-27
    soldstatus $107,500
15. 1991-06-06
    soldstatus $95,000
16. 1990-04-02
    soldstatus $104,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,782 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,782 · $315/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,209
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,782
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,497
• − Management: −$2,497
• − HOA: −$3,480
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$3,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$855
• After-tax cash flow: $1,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400510
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $73,967
• Composite: 16.82/100
• National rank: #9151
• State rank: #21 of 24 in MD

Livability — Oxon Hill

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #16277

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oxon Hill, MD
• County: Prince Georges County · 919,866 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 54,441
• Household income: $124,190
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 833.0

Population outlook (Prince George's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,005,426 people
• By 2030: 1,048,416 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,123,425 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,183,220 · +17.7%
• By 2075: 1,306,202 · +29.9%
• By 2100: 1,408,179 · +40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% Hispanic / Latino 21% White 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George's

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+75.2) · D 86.3% · R 11.2% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 75.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+75.2 2020: D+80.5 2016: D+81.0 2012: D+80.9 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -265.38%
• Current HPI: 250.5558
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.06%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+140.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-26 Coming Soon $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $136,000 Public Records
• 2003-05-27 Sold (MLS) $136,000 MRIS
• 2003-04-07 Delisted — MRIS
• 2002-10-19 Listed $129,000 MRIS
• 1993-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $107,500 Public Records
• 1991-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 1990-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,782 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.