329 Blue Willow Dr · Wildwood, TX 77663

$125,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 945 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1988 9,962 sqft lot $132/sqft · 44% above area Est $87k · 44% over $200/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy home in the gated community of Wildwood. If your looking for a starter home or to down size of even a weekend/lake home this is it! Home sits on one lot and there are two lots conjoining the home and lot so plenty of room to build a new home or a shop. Wildwood offers a 365 acre lake for boating, fishing and a swimming area. Basketball court, tennis and volley ball at the beach area. 18 hole golf course and pro shop with grill. Gated community in the Warren school district. Schedule for a showing.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Tennis
• Basketball court

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• 365 ACRE LAKE
• BASKETBALL COURT
• TENNIS
• VOLLEY BALL
• 18 HOLE GOLF COURSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.0% in Wildwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#855 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Warren ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #378 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5 units permitted in Tyler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Tyler County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.02%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,526
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 44.46%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $17,652
• Equity at exit: $42,967

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $58,920
• Equity at exit: $57,328

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77663

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,615 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,611/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,319

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $305	-5% $269	+0% $234	+5% $199	+10% $163
Rent	-10% $106	-5% $170	+0% $234	+5% $298	+10% $362
Rate	-1.0pp $297	-0.5pp $266	base $234	+0.5pp $202	+1.0pp $169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
917 W Wildwood Dr Kountze, TX	3.0	1.5	1125	$1,615	$1.44	14d	1	0.70mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 129 DOM
17. 2026-01-21
    listed $125,000 Active 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Cozy home in the gated community of Wildwood. If your looking for a starter home or to down size of even a weekend/lake home this is it! Home sits on one lot and there are two lots conjoining the home and lot so plenty of room to build a new home or a shop. Wildwood offers a 365 acre lake for boating, fishing and a swimming area. Basketball court, tennis and volley ball at the beach area. 18 hole golf course and pro shop with grill. Gated community in the Warren school district. Schedule for a showing.

18. 2026-01-18
    listed $125,000 Active 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    This cozy home located in the gated community of Wildwood. If you looking to down size, a starter home or even a weekend home then this is it! This home sits on three lots with room to build a brand new home or the shop of your needs. Wildwood offers a 365 acre lake for fishing, boating and swimming. 18 hole golf course with pro shop and grill. 24/7 manned gate, private tennis and basketball courts. Call to schedule a showing!

19. 1997-09-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,611 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$677/yr (+$56/mo · 42.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,611
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,550
• − Management: −$1,550
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,005
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$241
• After-tax cash flow: $2,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844580
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,575
• Composite: 34.97/100
• National rank: #5059
• State rank: #378 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wildwood

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #855
• US rank: #15381

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wildwood, TX
• Population (ZIP): 309

Population outlook (Tyler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,375 people
• By 2030: 20,036 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 19,150 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 18,017 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 15,300 · -24.9%
• By 2100: 11,702 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Polish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Tyler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.5) · D 13.0% · R 86.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.5pp toward R · 2008: -44.0pp · 2024: -73.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.5 2020: R+70.3 2016: R+67.2 2012: R+55.5 2008: R+44.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Current HPI: 103.9751
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-18 Listed $125,000 BBOR
• 1997-09-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,611 · -4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.