748 E Robinson St · North Tonawanda, NY 14120

$159,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1929 5,499 sqft lot $151/sqft · 34% below area Est $242k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom home in the City of North Tonawanda featuring one bedroom on the first floor and two on the second. The updated full bath offers a modern walk-in shower, while the living room showcases newer bamboo flooring for a clean, low-maintenance finish. Enjoy additional space in the covered porch—perfect for relaxing. Major updates provide peace of mind, including a high-efficiency furnace, updated windows, electric panel, and a sump pump with battery backup. New roof in 2020! The basement underwent approximately $28,000 in professional remediation and waterproofing in 2024. Outside, you’ll find a deep lot, a newer shed behind garage, and a 1.5-car garage built in 199

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Updated full bath
• Updated windows

Tags

• UPDATED FULL BATH
• MODERN WALK-IN SHOWER
• NEWER BAMBOO FLOORING
• COVERED PORCH
• HIGH-EFFICIENCY FURNACE
• UPDATED WINDOWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected; Cable available; Circuit breaker electric
• Home design: 2-story home; Resale property; Asphalt roof
• Construction: Composite and vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Covered porch; Shed(s)/storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom; Second-level bedrooms (two)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Full basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($696/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• North Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #398 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $143,704 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.55%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,235
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -33.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 Cramer St	0.05mi	2/1.0	994 (-6%)	14mo	$182,000	$183	76
519 E Thompson St	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,092 (+3%)	2mo	$240,000	$220	67
120 Rumbold Ave	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	998 (-6%)	13mo	$230,000	$230	67
155 Madison Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0	1,142 (+8%)	20mo	$170,000	$149	66
174 Pine St	0.21mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,190 (+13%)	8mo	$223,500	$188	56
57 Donald Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (-4%)	8mo	$252,500	$249	52
108 Hagen Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (+9%)	20mo	$225,000	$195	52
78 Donald Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (-4%)	12mo	$235,000	$232	50
310 Rumbold Ave	0.24mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,204 (+14%)	17mo	$237,500	$197	44
993 Walck Rd	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (+8%)	7mo	$205,000	$179	43
447 Robinson St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-9%)	19mo	$165,000	$172	38
953 Erie Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	906 (-14%)	12mo	$195,000	$215	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-17,804
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $8,489
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14120

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,437 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,065/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,364

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $149	-5% $103	+0% $58	+5% $13	+10% $-32
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $1	+0% $58	+5% $115	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $139	-0.5pp $99	base $58	+0.5pp $17	+1.0pp $-26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
900 E Robinson St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	2d	1	0.29mi
166 Spruce St Unit 5 North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	24d	1	0.64mi
399 Miller St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,250	$1.67	24d	1	0.74mi
705 Sandra Ln North Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,795	$2.48	2d	9	0.83mi
330 E Niagara St Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,900	$1.95	2d	1	1.05mi
317 Hedwig Dr Unit N North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	11d	1	1.20mi
125 3rd Ave North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	44d	1	1.23mi
757 Remington Dr Unit 1 North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	11d	1	1.31mi
184 Sweeney St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,000	$1.73	2d	1	1.34mi
103 Raintree Is Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,800	$2.57	2d	35	1.45mi
175 12th Ave North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 852-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $159,900 Active 852-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,065 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,384 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: +$319/yr (+$27/mo · 15.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,065
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,380
• − Management: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$1,988
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$477
• After-tax cash flow: $1,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621240
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,348
• Composite: 42.15/100
• National rank: #3301
• State rank: #398 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Tonawanda

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #518

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Tonawanda, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 44,241
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,241
• Household income: $74,871
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1303.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.39%
• Current HPI: 303.1744
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,065 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.