1111 Archwood Dr SW #244 · Olympia, WA 98502

$94,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1990 $53/sqft · 23% above area Est $80k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Nice 3-bedroom home in a 55+ community in West Olympia! This charming home offers an open-concept layout, vaulted ceilings, and 1,848 sq. ft. of living space. The kitchen shines with new luxury vinyl plank flooring, a large center eat-in island, plenty of counter space, a skylight, and all appliances included. A formal dining area and separate family room provide flexible living space and could also work well as a den or office. The huge primary bedroom features a walk-in shower in the bath. Outside, the oversized carport can accommodate up to 3 cars, and the heat pump/AC mini-split helps keep the home comfortable year-round. Enjoy the nice covered deck with ramp, perfect for entertaining.

Key facts

• Rock landscaping
• Skylight
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE CENTER EAT-IN ISLAND
• SKYLIGHT
• DETACHED STORAGE SHED
• COVERED DECK WITH RAMP
• ROCK LANDSCAPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.3% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Olympia School District (urban): math 66% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #17 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($653 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $94k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $91,665 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.89%
• DSCR: 3.71
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,989
• List price: $94,500
• Delta: 18.14%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1111 Archwood Dr SW #226	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+1%)	16mo	$130,000	$73	81
1111 Archwood Dr SW #306	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-12%)	4mo	$75,000	$48	71
1111 Archwood Dr SW #213	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-12%)	14mo	$150,000	$96	66
1111 Archwood Dr SW #202	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-12%)	14mo	$110,000	$70	63
1111 Archwood Dr SW #429	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-14%)	10mo	$75,000	$49	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $137,365
• Equity at exit: $85,133

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.0%
• Equity multiple: 13.78×
• Total profit: $338,066
• Equity at exit: $183,593

Cash invested: $26,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,439 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $596/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $1,343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $740

Max offer price $94,500

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,396	-5% $1,369	+0% $1,343	+5% $1,316	+10% $1,289
Rent	-10% $1,150	-5% $1,246	+0% $1,343	+5% $1,439	+10% $1,535
Rate	-1.0pp $1,390	-0.5pp $1,367	base $1,343	+0.5pp $1,318	+1.0pp $1,293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,625
• Closing costs: $2,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4611 Greenwood Dr SW Olympia, WA	3.0	3.0	1448	$2,495	$1.72	44d	1	0.81mi
2137 Conger Ave NW Unit C Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,895	$1.52	44d	1	1.17mi
2137 Conger Ave NW Unit A Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,995	$1.60	44d	1	1.17mi
5004 4th Way SW Olympia, WA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1271	$2,645	$2.08	14d	5	1.20mi
4407 Goldcrest Dr NW Olympia, WA	4.0	2.5	2615	$2,950	$1.13	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $94,500 Pending 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $94,500 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,500 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,500 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $94,500 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   pricedays on market $94,500 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,500 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,500 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,500 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,500 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-04-16
    listed $99,500 Active
12. 2019-12-06
    soldstatus $59,900 Sold
13. 2019-11-13
    status Pending
14. 2019-10-28
    listed $59,900 Active
15. 2004-07-30
    soldstatus $65,000
16. 2004-05-13
    listed $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $596 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $926 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$330/yr (+$28/mo · 55.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,293
• − Property taxes: −$596
• − Insurance: −$472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,342
• − Management: −$2,342
• − Depreciation: −$2,749
• Taxable income: $15,479
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,715
• After-tax cash flow: $12,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Olympia School District
• NCES district ID: 5306180
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $63,852
• Composite: 62.27/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #17 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olympia, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+53.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $99,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-06 Sold (MLS) $59,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-13 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-28 Listed $59,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-30 Sold (MLS) $65,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-13 Listed $65,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2020): $596 · -6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.