5115 Knob Creek Rd · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40109

$158,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Other · 5 Days on market

Built 1985 1.03 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

5 BR, 3 BA home has walk-out full basement with Family Room, Rec Room, 2 BR, full BA & E-I kitchen. All rooms are large. Laundry on both floors. 2 car det garage. All on 1 acre. Approx 15 minutes to UPS & Ford Plant on Fern Valley Rd.

Key facts

• Rural feel
• Walkout ranch
• All brick

Tags

• WALKOUT RANCH
• LARGE KITCHEN
• ALL BRICK
• RURAL FEEL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1.03-acre lot
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Propane service available
• Home design: Single-family ranch home; Single-story (1 story); Primary entries and main living on the first floor
• Construction: Built in 1985; Shingle roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Irregular lot; No fencing; Lot dimensions approximately 104 x 432

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor; Primary bedroom on the first floor with primary bathroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, both on the first floor; Primary full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfinished walkout basement; One fireplace (located in the basement); Seven closets; Seven total rooms; Utility room in main level; Other finished/usable space in basement
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry; Main-level utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $84 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bullitt County (suburban): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #55 of 165 in KY (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nichols Elementary (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #487 of 676 statewide, top 72%, 106 students, 62% FRL); Bullitt Lick Middle School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #189 of 217 statewide, top 89%, 461 students, 67% FRL); Bullitt Central High School (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #174 of 254 statewide, top 69%, 1,363 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 380 units permitted in Bullitt County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bullitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $131k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,509 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.29%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-20,307
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-11,099
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40109

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $341/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,168

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $129	+0% $84	+5% $40	+10% $-194
Rent	-10% $-16	-5% $34	+0% $84	+5% $135	+10% $185
Rate	-1.0pp $164	-0.5pp $125	base $84	+0.5pp $44	+1.0pp $2

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $158,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $158,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $158,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-05-27
   listed $158,000 Active
5. 2011-09-22
   soldstatus $130,800 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   5 BR, 3 BA home has walk-out full basement with Family Room, Rec Room, 2 BR, full BA & E-I kitchen. All rooms are large. Laundry on both floors. 2 car det garage. All on 1 acre. Approx 15 minutes to UPS & Ford Plant on Fern Valley Rd.

6. 2011-07-02
   listed $139,000 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   5 BR, 3 BA home has walk-out full basement with Family Room, Rec Room, 2 BR, full BA & E-I kitchen. All rooms are large. Laundry on both floors. 2 car det garage. All on 1 acre. Approx 15 minutes to UPS & Ford Plant on Fern Valley Rd.

7. 2010-12-01
   historical
8. 2009-12-01
   listed $149,900
9. 1998-08-04
   soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $341 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,359 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,017/yr (+$85/mo · 298.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$341
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable loss: −$1,725
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$414
• After-tax cash flow: $1,428/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullitt County
• NCES district ID: 2100750
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,009
• Composite: 30.78/100
• National rank: #6151
• State rank: #55 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 419,741
• Population (ZIP): 2,363

Population outlook (Bullitt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,555 people
• By 2030: 94,389 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 102,759 · +14.7%
• By 2050: 108,955 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 121,898 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 126,383 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Iranian 2% Romanian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bullitt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 23.8% · R 74.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -32.3pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+32.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.41%
• Current HPI: 261.2976
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+2533.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $158,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2011-09-22 Sold (MLS) $130,800 Metro Search MLS
• 2011-07-02 Listed $139,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2010-12-01 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2009-12-01 Listed $149,900 Metro Search MLS
• 1998-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $341 · +158.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.