14884 Prickly Pear Cv · Magnolia, TX 77354

$247,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,820 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2021 8,071 sqft lot Est $288k · 14% under $63/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

FANTASTIC NEW Express Homes BUILT 1 STORY! Sought-After Split Plan Interior Layout! Beautiful Elevation with Covered Front Porch! Impressive Foyer Opens Onto Gourmet Island Kitchen + Spacious Dining Area & Supersized Living Area! Privately Located Primary Suite with Lovely Bath & Big Walk-In Closet! Convenient Indoor Utility Room! Covered Patio Accents Backyard! Great Community with SplashPad, Trails, & Park! Walking Distance to Magnolia High School! Easy Access to Hwy 249 & FM 1488! Estimated Completion - December 2021.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• Splash pad

Tags

• SPLASH PAD
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: DR HORTON
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Inframark); Annual association fee of $760

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2021; Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor); Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Three additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite counters; 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (11.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $248k).
• Recommended offer: $219k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,373 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.79%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,560
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40814 Hawthorne Glades St	0.28mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,882 (+3%)	0mo	$279,990	$149	76
40807 Hawthorne Glades	0.27mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (+4%)	2mo	$259,990	$137	72
15106 Rose Willow Ln	0.50mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,818 (-0%)	2mo	$281,990	$155	70
15019 Baikal Teal Ter	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,931 (+6%)	0mo	$317,900	$165	69
40603 Balsam Run Ln	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,041 (+12%)	1mo	$321,990	$158	63
15315 Mountain Plover Pl	0.50mi	4/2.5	1,689 (-7%)	1mo	$299,990	$178	62
40742 Barley Straw Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (-14%)	2mo	$279,990	$178	58
40654 Balsam Run Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (-14%)	0mo	$287,490	$183	54
40734 Barley Straw Dr	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,041 (+12%)	0mo	$314,990	$154	52
15307 Mountain Plover Pl	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,064 (+13%)	1mo	$314,900	$153	52
15459 Park Perch Pl	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,061 (+13%)	2mo	$309,990	$150	49
15443 Park Perch Pl	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,064 (+13%)	2mo	$327,900	$159	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $118,390
• Equity at exit: $223,328

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $345,279
• Equity at exit: $481,615

Cash invested: $69,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,533 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,300
• Tax from tax record: −$696 /mo · $8,353/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$532
• Net cashflow: $-161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,737

Max offer price $219,373

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,975
• Closing costs: $7,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	43d	1	0.04mi
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	19d	1	0.21mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	43d	1	0.52mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	1d	40	0.77mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	43d	1	0.97mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	24d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $247,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $247,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $247,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $247,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 657-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $247,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,353 · $696/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,353 · $696/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,886
• − Property taxes: −$8,353
• − Insurance: −$1,240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,431
• − Management: −$2,431
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$7,212
• Taxable loss: −$5,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,420
• After-tax cash flow: $-518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $247,900 HARMLS
• 2022-02-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-12-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-12-23 Price Changed $287,990 HARMLS
• 2021-12-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-10-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-09-11 Price Changed $280,490 HARMLS
• 2021-08-13 Listed $279,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+19.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,353 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.