27 Ellen St · Oswego, NY 13126

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,365 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1900 10,000 sqft lot Est $153k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 27 Ellen Street! This home has been in the same family for generations and has been truly loved and cared for over the years and now it’s ready for its next owner to make memories of their own. The kitchen has been completely renovated and brought back to life, creating a bright, welcoming space to gather with family and friends. The main floor offers one bedroom, while upstairs you’ll find two additional bedrooms and a full bath. A new water heater is already in place, giving you one less thing to worry about. Situated on an oversized city lot, there’s plenty of room to enjoy summer BBQs, gardening, pets, playtime, or simply relaxing outdoors. Located in the Ki

Key facts

• Oversized city lot
• Minutes from schools
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED CITY LOT
• MINUTES FROM SCHOOLS
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING
• MINUTES FROM RESTAURANTS
• MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN OSWEGO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story existing structure; Resale property
• Construction: Stone foundation; Spray foam insulation; Construction details: see remarks
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 200

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Hot water (boiler) heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Bedroom on main level; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#265 in NY, #4,189 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Oswego City School District (town): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #465 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.91%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Varick St	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,454 (+6%)	1mo	$89,000	$61	76
124 Ellen St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,420 (+4%)	4mo	$230,000	$162	71
205 E 2nd St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,368 (+0%)	8mo	$75,000	$55	68
81 Niagara St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,305 (-4%)	3mo	$120,000	$92	67
221 W 7th St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,398 (+2%)	6mo	$70,000	$50	60
27 Hart St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+5%)	3mo	$230,000	$161	58
223 1/2 Syracuse Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,242 (-9%)	9mo	$84,900	$68	56
226 E 2nd St	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,254 (-8%)	9mo	$159,650	$127	55
78 Varick St	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,180 (-14%)	4mo	$132,500	$112	47
440 W 5th St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,180 (-14%)	5mo	$180,000	$153	41
51 E Albany St	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,540 (+13%)	2mo	$179,900	$117	39
225 W 7th St	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,538 (+13%)	9mo	$147,000	$96	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.25% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $10,525
• Equity at exit: $31,973

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $90,197
• Equity at exit: $25,426

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13126

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,926 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,006/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,466

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Murray St Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1589	$1,800	$1.13	13d	1	0.13mi
14 Pond Path Oswego, NY	3.0	1.5	1408	$2,300	$1.63	13d	1	0.33mi
188 W 2nd St Unit 1 Oswego, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,695	$1.88	21d	1	0.71mi
25 W Mohawk St Unit TH Oswego, NY	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,745	$1.52	43d	1	0.72mi
165 W 3rd St Unit 3 Oswego, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,445	$1.45	43d	1	0.73mi
165 W 3rd St Unit 4 Oswego, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	13d	1	0.73mi
105 W Oneida St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,540	$1.41	13d	1	0.92mi
135 W Mohawk St Oswego, NY	3.0	1.0	1103	$1,700	$1.54	13d	1	0.92mi
64 E 5th St Unit 1 Oswego, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	43d	1	0.99mi
143 Liberty St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,480	$1.46	13d	1	1.03mi
130 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,500	$1.47	13d	1	1.04mi
23 NW 9th St Oswego, NY	4.0	1.5	1700	$2,300	$1.35	13d	1	1.05mi
6 Lathrop St Oswego, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,725	$1.57	13d	1	1.07mi
103 W 8th St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	13d	1	1.08mi
136 W Cayuga St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,300	$1.44	13d	1	1.11mi
153 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	1.5	1800	$2,340	$1.30	13d	1	1.14mi
141 W Cayuga St Oswego, NY	4.0	1.0	1311	$2,100	$1.60	13d	1	1.15mi
161 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,240	$1.60	13d	1	1.17mi
39 W 6th St Unit 2-A Oswego, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,725	$1.15	13d	1	1.18mi
85 Liberty St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	13d	1	1.19mi
148 W Seneca St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	13d	1	1.21mi
188 W Bridge St Oswego, NY	4.0	1.0	1008	$1,800	$1.79	13d	1	1.23mi
153 W Seneca St Unit 1 Oswego, NY	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,540	$1.54	43d	1	1.25mi
164 W Schuyler St Unit A Oswego, NY	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,755	$1.25	13d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    remarks 681-char remark
11. 2026-06-03
    listed $175,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,006 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,482 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$476/yr (+$40/mo · 23.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,006
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,849
• − Management: −$1,849
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,642
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$394
• After-tax cash flow: $3,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oswego City School District
• NCES district ID: 3622050
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,835
• Composite: 38.2/100
• National rank: #4257
• State rank: #465 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oswego

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #4189

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oswego, NY
• County: Oswego County · 36,495 people
• City population: 36,495
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,495
• Household income: $65,346
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1341.0

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Current HPI: 295.5134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 19.18%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $175,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+25.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,006 · +48.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.