115 Tubman Cir · Cloverdale, MS 39120

$34,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,067 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1988 0.27 ac lot $32/sqft · 65% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is an investor special being sold at a large discount. The seller is unaware of the condition of the home and the listing brokerage cannot verify anything about the home other than the location. This Property Is Occupied By Unknown Occupant. Seller Is Selling This Property As Is Where Is. Buyers Cannot View Property Or Disturb Occupants before closing.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Parking
• Listed 57 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 car)
• Security:
• Utilities: Public sewer; Community water; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence, one level; House structure; Fixer condition
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,067 (source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms:
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating described in remarks; Cooling described in remarks
• Interior features: Appliances described in remarks
• Laundry & utility:

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $34k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $312 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($750 rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#321 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $235 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,980 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.38%
• DSCR: 2.75
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,974
• List price: $34,000
• Delta: -64.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
157 Tubman Cir	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,048 (-2%)	8mo	$54,900	$52	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $14,428
• Equity at exit: $5,070

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.03×
• Total profit: $38,345
• Equity at exit: $2,940

Cash invested: $9,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$178
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,051/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$158
• Net cashflow: $312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $355

Max offer price $34,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $332	-5% $322	+0% $312	+5% $303	+10% $293
Rent	-10% $253	-5% $283	+0% $312	+5% $342	+10% $372
Rate	-1.0pp $330	-0.5pp $321	base $312	+0.5pp $304	+1.0pp $295

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,500
• Closing costs: $1,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
576 Lower Woodville Rd Unit B3 Natchez, MS	3.0	1.0	1200	$750	$0.62	44d	1	0.12mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $34,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $34,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $34,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $34,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $34,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $34,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $34,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $34,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $34,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $34,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $34,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $34,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $34,000 Active 359-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,051 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,051 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,905
• − Property taxes: −$1,051
• − Insurance: −$170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$720
• − Management: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$989
• Taxable income: $3,445
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$827
• After-tax cash flow: $2,922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Cloverdale

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #321
• US rank: #23944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $34,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,051 · +21.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.