9 Payeville Ln · Saranac Lake, NY 12983

$190,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1920 1,742 sqft lot $127/sqft · 49% below area Est $375k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This lovely home with a low maintenance yard is a must see. It is great for a family home or an investment opportunity. The kitchen has been updated with stainless steel appliances and beautiful cabinets. You have 2 living areas to use as you wish. The location is great with easy access to Saranac Lake and Lake Placid.

Key facts

• Mackenzie pond road
• 1,742 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• MACKENZIE POND ROAD
• WALK TO NORTH COUNTRY SCHOOL
• ADIRONDACK RAIL TRAIL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1 open parking space
• Utilities: 200+ amp electric service with circuit breakers; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Metal and shingle roof; Public water and public sewer connections

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Free-standing gas range; Refrigerator; Water heater; Has basement with dirt floor and sump pump; Total of 8 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in the kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $84 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.5% in Saranac Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#274 in NY, #4,341 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities D+.
• Saranac Lake Central School District (town): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #497 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $190k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,992 (3.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.89%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,575
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -49.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13 Pontiac St St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+0%)	13mo	$290,000	$193	70
7 Seneca Avenue Ave	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,600 (+7%)	17mo	$335,000	$209	58
43 Shepard Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+3%)	8mo	$269,000	$174	57
120 Riverside Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-7%)	5mo	$515,000	$368	54
494 Forest Hill Ave	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (+6%)	8mo	$325,000	$205	48
83 Shepard Ave Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-6%)	10mo	$375,000	$266	48
94 Shepard Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+8%)	7mo	$382,000	$236	47
12 Moody Way	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,560 (+4%)	20mo	$270,000	$173	47
245 Lake Flower Ave Ave	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-13%)	11mo	$350,000	$269	42
776 Mckenzie Pond Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+12%)	23mo	$425,000	$253	34
138 Kiwassa Rd Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,275 (-15%)	9mo	$555,750	$436	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-25,390
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-14,999
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12983

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,830 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,724

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 623-char remark
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $190,000 Active 623-char remark
3. 2017-10-25
   soldstatus $112,000
4. 2017-10-24
   soldstatus $118,700 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   This lovely home with a low maintenance yard is a must see. It is great for a family home or an investment opportunity. The kitchen has been updated with stainless steel appliances and beautiful cabinets. You have 2 living areas to use as you wish. The location is great with easy access to Saranac Lake and Lake Placid.

5. 2017-08-07
   listed $112,000 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   This lovely home with a low maintenance yard is a must see. It is great for a family home or an investment opportunity. The kitchen has been updated with stainless steel appliances and beautiful cabinets. You have 2 living areas to use as you wish. The location is great with easy access to Saranac Lake and Lake Placid.

6. 2014-05-02
   soldstatus $83,500
7. 2008-11-21
   soldstatus $77,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,435 · $286/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,435 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$3,435
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,757
• − Management: −$1,757
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,110
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$506
• After-tax cash flow: $1,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saranac Lake Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625740
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,434
• Composite: 35.73/100
• National rank: #4856
• State rank: #497 of 590 in NY

Livability — Saranac Lake

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #274
• US rank: #4341

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C+ Cost of living A- Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saranac Lake, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,410

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.20%
• Current HPI: 318.7218
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+146.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — ACVMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $190,000 ACVMLS
• 2017-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-24 Sold (MLS) $118,700 ACVMLS
• 2017-08-07 Listed $112,000 ACVMLS
• 2014-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records
• 2008-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,435 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.