12 Leonard Post Dr · Cheektowaga, NY 14211

$189,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,319 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1943 5,663 sqft lot $144/sqft · 18% below area Est $231k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1943

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-338 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (31.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#54 in NY, #811 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Cheektowaga Central School District (urban): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #564 of 590 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Union East Elementary School (math 19% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,777 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 895 students, 65% FRL); Cheektowaga Middle School (math 10% / reading 36%, grade F, #646 of 729 statewide, top 89%, 627 students, 68% FRL); Cheektowaga High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 705 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 51% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,509/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 1804% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $190k implies a 216% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $130,251 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.62%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,629
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -17.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Eden Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+0%)	2mo	$225,000	$170	74
105 Hoerner Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,367 (+4%)	2mo	$90,000	$66	69
32 Wildy Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,267 (-4%)	1mo	$210,000	$166	66
62 Haller Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,397 (+6%)	4mo	$125,000	$89	65
25 Mcnaughton Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,437 (+9%)	4mo	$255,000	$177	62
16 Kemp Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-13%)	0mo	$275,000	$239	60
64 Westchester Dr	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,194 (-10%)	2mo	$190,000	$159	59
97 Southern Pkwy	0.58mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,471 (+12%)	1mo	$237,000	$161	48
115 Southern Pkwy	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,195 (-9%)	4mo	$215,000	$180	46
1003 Walden Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,130 (-14%)	0mo	$70,000	$62	44
85 Cathedral Ln	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,137 (-14%)	1mo	$275,000	$242	41
102 Francis Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,130 (-14%)	4mo	$165,000	$146	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-7,855
• Equity at exit: $75,407

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $14,560
• Equity at exit: $108,977

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14211

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,509 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$454 /mo · $5,453/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,936

Max offer price $130,251

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-230	-5% $-284	+0% $-338	+5% $-391	+10% $-445
Rent	-10% $-457	-5% $-397	+0% $-338	+5% $-278	+10% $-218
Rate	-1.0pp $-242	-0.5pp $-289	base $-338	+0.5pp $-387	+1.0pp $-437

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
143 Reo Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,600	$1.40	13d	1	0.26mi
1202 Walden Ave Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	19d	1	0.28mi
24 Euclid Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,700	$1.48	45d	1	0.60mi
979 Walden Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	3.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	3d	1	0.70mi
11 Kaufman Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	45d	1	0.76mi
50 Pine Ridge Ter Unit 3 Cheektowaga, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	19d	1	0.83mi
14 Rutland Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1430	$2,200	$1.54	12d	1	0.89mi
65 Domedion Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1632	$1,500	$0.92	3d	1	0.94mi
2935 Genesee St Unit Up Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	12d	1	1.19mi
67 Moeller St Unit UPPER Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,000	$1.04	5d	1	1.29mi
67 Moeller St Unit LOWER Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,200	$1.25	25d	1	1.29mi
47 Awood Pl Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1840	$1,500	$0.82	3d	1	1.32mi
103 Preston Rd Unit Lower Cheektowaga, NY	2.0	1.0	882	$1,300	$1.47	5d	1	1.32mi
85 Blake St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1022	$1,000	$0.98	45d	1	1.37mi
1777 Broadway Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	45d	1	1.38mi
61 Courtland Ave Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	45d	1	1.39mi
216 Newburgh Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1690	$1,150	$0.68	25d	1	1.45mi
249 Newburgh Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	930	$1,300	$1.40	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,900 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-03-05
    listed $189,900 Active
17. 2000-06-08
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,453 · $454/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,453 · $454/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$5,453
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,448
• − Management: −$1,448
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$7,358
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,766
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cheektowaga Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607230
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,401
• Composite: 28.45/100
• National rank: #6753
• State rank: #564 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cheektowaga

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #811

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cheektowaga, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 55,470
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,663
• Household income: $36,300
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1804.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 9% White 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Current HPI: 357.6438
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+216.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $189,900 WNYREIS
• 2000-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,453 · +17.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.