The Cardinal Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$256,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · SingleFamily · 922 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The cozy Cardinal plan features three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a pocket office at the front of the home that can be converted into a powder bathroom or enlarged pantry space. The primary suite is tucked away at the back of the home for extra privacy leaving lots of room for the open concept kitchen/dining and family room areas. Customize the Cardinal plan further with a spacious covered back patio perfect for outdoor get-togethers with family and friends.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 921 days

🏗️ New construction. The $256,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $311,879.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $257k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-299 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 922 days — a 12% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $226,151 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 922 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.11%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,879
• List price: $256,990
• Delta: -17.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40443 Gerygone Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,614 (-1%)	6mo	$304,900	$189	81
15122 Rose Willow Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-3%)	2mo	$279,990	$178	79
40511 Tyto Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,492 (-8%)	0mo	$235,000	$158	74
40530 Tyto Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-10%)	1mo	$274,900	$188	69
40710 Barley Straw Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+8%)	2mo	$286,490	$164	65
40731 Barley Straw	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,476 (-9%)	2mo	$264,990	$180	64
40418 Winding Way Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,605 (-1%)	5mo	$350,000	$218	64
15214 Black Scoter Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,614 (-1%)	6mo	$299,900	$186	62
15315 Mountain Plover Pl	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,689 (+4%)	1mo	$299,990	$178	52
15219 Black Scoter Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-10%)	7mo	$279,900	$191	45
40504 Warialda Trace Ln	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+12%)	7mo	$245,000	$135	43
15123 Bank Swallow Pl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,826 (+12%)	7mo	$319,370	$175	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $144,683
• Equity at exit: $280,965

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $429,909
• Equity at exit: $605,911

Cash invested: $87,326 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,350 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,636
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$390 /mo · $4,678/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,728

Max offer price $268,625

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-83	-5% $-191	+0% $-299	+5% $-407	+10% $-514
Rent	-10% $-485	-5% $-392	+0% $-299	+5% $-206	+10% $-113
Rate	-1.0pp $-142	-0.5pp $-220	base $-299	+0.5pp $-380	+1.0pp $-462

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,970
• Closing costs: $9,356
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	0d	40	0.05mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	45d	1	0.16mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	26d	1	0.18mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	45d	1	0.32mi
14541 Montclair Way Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,200	$1.01	0d	1	0.66mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	45d	1	0.83mi
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	45d	1	1.14mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	26d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $256,990 Active 922 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $256,990 Active 919 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $256,990 Active 918 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $256,990 Active 917 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $256,990 Active 916 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $256,990 Active 914 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $256,990 Active 910 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $256,990 Active 909 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $256,990 Active 908 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $256,990 Active 905 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $256,990 Active 904 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $256,990 Active 903 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $256,990 Active 902 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $256,990 Active 901 DOM
15. 2024-03-04
    price $256,990 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    The cozy Cardinal plan features three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a pocket office at the front of the home that can be converted into a powder bathroom or enlarged pantry space. The primary suite is tucked away at the back of the home for extra privacy leaving lots of room for the open concept kitchen/dining and family room areas. Customize the Cardinal plan further with a spacious covered back patio perfect for outdoor get-togethers with family and friends.

16. 2023-12-13
    listed $249,990 Active 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    The cozy Cardinal plan features three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a pocket office at the front of the home that can be converted into a powder bathroom or enlarged pantry space. The primary suite is tucked away at the back of the home for extra privacy leaving lots of room for the open concept kitchen/dining and family room areas. Customize the Cardinal plan further with a spacious covered back patio perfect for outdoor get-togethers with family and friends.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,470
• − Property taxes: −$4,678
• − Insurance: −$1,559
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,256
• − Management: −$2,256
• − Depreciation: −$9,073
• Taxable loss: −$9,094
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,182
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Magnolia, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and modernize the interior.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace landscaping with drought-resistant plants — Reduces maintenance and improves curb appeal.
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal, attracting buyers and renters alike.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace landscaping with drought-resistant plants — Reduces maintenance and improves curb appeal. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal, attracting buyers and renters alike. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-04 Price Changed $256,990 Zillow
• 2023-12-13 Listed $249,990 Zillow