Is Bastrop Plan in Converse, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.7% cap rate and $-323/mo modeled cash flow at a $205,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Bastrop Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.7% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,716/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 29.76

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +7.3/30.0
Condition / age +3.8/5.0
Livability +3.3/5.0
Rent growth +2.2/5.0
1% rule +2.1/10.0
Schools +2.1/10.0
DSCR +1.5/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$205,990

Bastrop Plan · Converse, TX 78109

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,011 sqft · SingleFamily · 380 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Bastrop-a thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home that balances function and charm. The owner's suite features a walk-in closet and elegant bath with dual vanities and a separate shower. The open-concept kitchen flows into the café and gathering room, while a cozy foyer and dedicated laundry area add everyday convenience.

Key facts

Walk-in closet
Open-concept kitchen
Listed 379 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $206k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-323 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (4.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (16.7% below list).
Recommended offer: $172k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 66/100 on livability (#649 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1440 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 380 days — a 12% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $171,590 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 380 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.71% ✗
Cap rate: 4.70%
Cash-on-cash: -5.70%
DSCR: 0.75
GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $242,929
List price: $205,990
Delta: -15.21%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1318 Vallarta Centro	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+14%)	4mo	$174,370	$151	67
10344 Lassen Park	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,156 (+14%)	5mo	$268,610	$232	56
10624 Tufted Ct	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,106 (+9%)	0mo	$229,990	$208	50
836 King Eider	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,106 (+9%)	9mo	$227,990	$206	43
907 King Eider	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,106 (+9%)	12mo	$224,990	$203	40
826 Barnacle Ct	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,106 (+9%)	15mo	$221,990	$201	40
858 Barnacle Ct	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,106 (+9%)	19mo	$199,990	$181	39
815 Barnacle Ct	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,106 (+9%)	20mo	$219,990	$199	36
10514 Bean Goose	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,106 (+9%)	22mo	$219,990	$199	31
10420 Bean Goose	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,106 (+9%)	23mo	$223,990	$203	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.4%
Equity multiple: 0.05×
Total profit: $-64,956
Equity at exit: $36,221

10-year hold

IRR: -48.5%
Equity multiple: -0.51×
Total profit: $-102,403
Equity at exit: $21,004

Cash invested: $68,020 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 10 active · 4 under contract
Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $229,865 ($200/sqft)
Median days on market: 398 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +20.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78109

Home prices YoY: -17.8%
Rents YoY: -1.1%
Active inventory: 1440
Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,716 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,274
Tax est. 1.5%: −$304 /mo · $3,644/yr
Insurance: −$101
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
Net cashflow: $-323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,125

Max offer price $196,152

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-155	-5% $-239	+0% $-323	+5% $-407	+10% $-491
Rent	-10% $-459	-5% $-391	+0% $-323	+5% $-255	+10% $-188
Rate	-1.0pp $-201	-0.5pp $-261	base $-323	+0.5pp $-386	+1.0pp $-450

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $60,732
Closing costs: $7,288
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10313 Lassen Park Adkins, TX	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,850	$1.26	42d	1	0.21mi
1117 King Eider Adkins, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,750	$1.24	13d	1	0.40mi
2016 Palmer Pl Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,595	$1.09	93d	1	0.49mi
2187 Schuwirth Rd Converse, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1085	$1,566	$1.44	9d	1	0.50mi
2025 Palmer Pl Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,495	$1.12	73d	1	0.51mi
2811 Gustavo Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	93d	1	1.12mi
2822 Millikan Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,450	$1.00	34d	1	1.12mi
2822 Millikan Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	73d	1	1.12mi
2819 Gustavo Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	93d	1	1.14mi
2843 Elion Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,425	$1.12	17d	1	1.14mi
2815 Armaan WAY Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1401	$1,495	$1.07	9d	1	1.16mi
11030 Yonder Flts Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,500	$1.05	53d	1	1.24mi
10606 Varmus Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,476	$1.02	42d	1	1.25mi
10538 Varmus Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,550	$1.08	34d	1	1.26mi
10547 Varmus Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,550	$1.08	33d	1	1.29mi
2818 Praline Fry Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,500	$1.05	38d	1	1.30mi
3318 Carducci Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,800	$1.41	93d	1	1.32mi
10707 Giacconi Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,686	$1.33	93d	1	1.36mi
10754 Prusiner Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,450	$1.15	73d	1	1.37mi
10803 Prusiner Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,410	$0.97	73d	1	1.38mi
10803 Prusiner Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,476	$1.02	71d	1	1.38mi
10783 Prusiner Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,621	$1.28	10d	1	1.39mi
10755 Prusiner Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,536	$1.21	71d	1	1.39mi
4611 E 1604 N Converse, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,299	$1.31	9d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $205,990 Active 380 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $205,990 Active 378 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $205,990 Active 377 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $205,990 Active 376 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $205,990 Active 375 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $205,990 Active 372 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $205,990 Active 370 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $205,990 Active 369 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $205,990 Active 367 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $205,990 Active 365 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $205,990 Active 364 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $205,990 Active 363 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $205,990 Active 362 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $205,990 Active 361 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $205,990 Active 359 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $205,990 Active 358 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $205,990 Active 357 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $205,990 Active 356 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $205,990 Active 355 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $205,990 Active 354 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $205,990 Active 353 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $205,990 Active 352 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $205,990 Active 351 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $205,990 Active 350 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $205,990 Active 348 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $205,990 Active 347 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $205,990 Active 346 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $205,990 Active 344 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $205,990 Active 343 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $205,990 Active 342 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $205,990 Active 341 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $205,990 Active 340 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $205,990 Active 339 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $205,990 Active 338 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $205,990 Active 337 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $205,990 Active 335 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $205,990 Active 333 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $205,990 Active 332 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $205,990 Active 329 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $205,990 Active 328 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $205,990 Active 327 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $205,990 Active 326 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $205,990 Active 324 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $205,990 Active 320 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $205,990 Active 319 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $205,990 Active 318 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $205,990 Active 315 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $205,990 Active 314 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $205,990 Active 313 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $205,990 Active 312 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $20,591
− Mortgage interest: −$13,608
− Property taxes: −$3,644
− Insurance: −$1,215
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,647
− Management: −$1,647
− Depreciation: −$7,067
Taxable loss: −$8,237

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,977
After-tax cash flow: $-1,902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,055–$15,165 screening

This Bastrop plan home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good foundation and structure, and the landscaping is well-maintained. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Resale Kitchen updates — Modernizes the kitchen and improves functionality ↑
Resale Bathroom updates — Modernizes the bathrooms and improves functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Middle East Central Heritage Middle F TX #1,478/1,662 Nat'l #12,017/14,009 High East Central H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: East Central ISD
NCES district ID: 4817850
Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $53,941
Composite: 18.67/100
National rank: #8887
State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Converse

Score: 66/100
State rank: #649
US rank: #12250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Bexar County · 2,336,851 people
City population: 63,067
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP): 63,067
Household income: $91,320
Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 27% Two or more races 21% Black 21% Asian 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 4%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -51.02%
Current HPI: 236.4923
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-03-28 Price Changed $205,990 Zillow
2025-07-24 Listed $220,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…