40233 Highway 77 S · Ashland, AL 36251

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,139 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1935 ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the city limits of Ashland, AL. The home has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, large laundry/utility room, living room, dining room, large eat-in kitchen, and sunroom. Large covered front porch with ramp for entry and the front yard in fenced. The back yard is large and flat, with room to add a carport, garage or back deck. This property must be sole as is and will need a little TLC but it offers a lot of charm and space plus the convenience of city utilities.

Key facts

• Built 1935

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#471 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Clay County (rural): math 15% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #88 of 129 in AL (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Clay County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.12%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $444,912
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42770 Al-77	0.07mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,352 (+10%)	12mo	$270,000	$115	57
500 Jessie Ann Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,209 (+3%)	18mo	$460,000	$208	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $60,815
• Equity at exit: $63,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.58×
• Total profit: $156,535
• Equity at exit: $125,542

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36251

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $291/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $640

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $467	-5% $443	+0% $419	+5% $395	+10% $371
Rent	-10% $326	-5% $373	+0% $419	+5% $465	+10% $511
Rate	-1.0pp $462	-0.5pp $441	base $419	+0.5pp $397	+1.0pp $374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2023-07-27
   soldstatus $80,000
2. 2023-06-05
   soldstatus $80,000 Sold 467-char remark

   Show marketing remark (467 chars)

   Located in the city limits of Ashland, AL. The home has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, large laundry/utility room, living room, dining room, large eat-in kitchen, and sunroom. Large covered front porch with ramp for entry and the front yard in fenced. The back yard is large and flat, with room to add a carport, garage or back deck. This property must be sole as is and will need a little TLC but it offers a lot of charm and space plus the convenience of city utilities.

3. 2023-05-05
   status Pending 467-char remark

   Show marketing remark (467 chars)

   Located in the city limits of Ashland, AL. The home has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, large laundry/utility room, living room, dining room, large eat-in kitchen, and sunroom. Large covered front porch with ramp for entry and the front yard in fenced. The back yard is large and flat, with room to add a carport, garage or back deck. This property must be sole as is and will need a little TLC but it offers a lot of charm and space plus the convenience of city utilities.

4. 2023-05-04
   historical
5. 2023-04-03
   listed $85,000 Active 467-char remark

   Show marketing remark (467 chars)

   Located in the city limits of Ashland, AL. The home has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, large laundry/utility room, living room, dining room, large eat-in kitchen, and sunroom. Large covered front porch with ramp for entry and the front yard in fenced. The back yard is large and flat, with room to add a carport, garage or back deck. This property must be sole as is and will need a little TLC but it offers a lot of charm and space plus the convenience of city utilities.

6. 2023-04-02
   listed $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $291 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $349 · $29/mo
• Expected delta: +$57/yr (+$5/mo · 19.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,041
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$291
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,123
• − Management: −$1,123
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $3,844
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$923
• After-tax cash flow: $4,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay County
• NCES district ID: 0100750
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,719
• Composite: 21.53/100
• National rank: #8315
• State rank: #88 of 129 in AL

Livability — Ashland

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #24069

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashland, AL
• Population (ZIP): 5,146

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,758 people
• By 2030: 12,233 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 11,105 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 9,935 · -22.1%
• By 2075: 7,615 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 5,715 · -55.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.2) · D 14.7% · R 84.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.3pp · 2024: -70.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.2 2020: R+62.5 2016: R+60.8 2012: R+45.7 2008: R+47.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.84%
• Current HPI: 193.2598
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2023-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-05 Sold (MLS) $80,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-05-05 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-05-04 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2023-04-03 Listed $85,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-04-02 Listed $85,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $291 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.