11574 County Road 3168 · Liberty City, TX 75792

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1997

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors!! Great investment opportunity this home will be a great flip or rental property. Home needs work but has great potential. Priced right and ready to sell so come take a look to see if this property is right for you!!

Key facts

• Built 1997
• Listed 34 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $581 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#395 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Chapel Hill ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #650 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.18%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.74% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $54,240
• Equity at exit: $44,021

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $132,506
• Equity at exit: $74,953

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75792

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $393/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $581

Break-even live

Break-even rent $614

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $627	-5% $604	+0% $581	+5% $559	+10% $536
Rent	-10% $475	-5% $528	+0% $581	+5% $635	+10% $688
Rate	-1.0pp $622	-0.5pp $602	base $581	+0.5pp $561	+1.0pp $540

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $393 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,069/yr (+$89/mo · 272.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$393
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $6,014
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,443
• After-tax cash flow: $5,533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chapel Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813650
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,891
• Composite: 24.76/100
• National rank: #7603
• State rank: #650 of 826 in TX

Livability — Liberty City

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #395
• US rank: #8256

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,934

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.74%
• Current HPI: 210.9205
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-03-13 Listed $79,900 GTAR

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $393 · +11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.