43913 W Colby Dr · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$299,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2002 5,041 sqft lot $150/sqft · 11% below area Est $339k · 12% under $62/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One of the best-priced homes in Maricopa. Positioned within the established Rancho El Dorado community, This home presents a compelling blend of space, design, and value. Encompassing approximately 2,000 square feet, this two-story residence offers a refined yet functional layout with three bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, and a versatile loft that can easily serve as a fourth bedroom or executive workspace. The home opens to an inviting interior where natural light enhances the expansive living areas. The main level is designed with flow in mind, seamlessly connecting gathering spaces to create an environment that feels both open and intentional. The kitchen anchors the home, offering a central space for daily living and entertaining alike. Seller is highly motivated.

Key facts

• 5,041 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2002

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-310 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (32.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 845 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $300k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,349 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.44%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $339,110
• List price: $299,995
• Delta: -11.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44188 W Cydnee Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,917 (-4%)	1mo	$287,000	$150	70
43843 W Roth Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,885 (-6%)	1mo	$385,000	$204	64
22392 N Balboa Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,950 (-2%)	0mo	$375,000	$192	60
20743 N Enchantment Pass	0.70mi	3/3.0	2,057 (+3%)	2mo	$500,000	$243	59
20765 N Enchantment Pass	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,051 (+2%)	1mo	$485,000	$236	56
43522 W Snow Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,228 (+11%)	1mo	$345,000	$155	54
21197 N Jubilee Pl	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,906 (-5%)	1mo	$347,200	$182	54
43874 W Bailey Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,820 (-9%)	2mo	$379,000	$208	53
44729 W Alamendras St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,754 (-12%)	2mo	$265,000	$151	45
20626 N Madison Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,252 (+13%)	1mo	$475,000	$211	45
43423 W Venture Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	2,218 (+11%)	2mo	$370,000	$167	43
44449 W Eddie Way	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,292 (+15%)	2mo	$350,000	$153	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-43,372
• Equity at exit: $74,036

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-47,358
• Equity at exit: $79,132

Cash invested: $83,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 845
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,033 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,881/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$62
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,427

Max offer price $245,145

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,999
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43839 W Rio Grande Dr Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1462	$1,650	$1.13	5d	1	0.14mi
43697 W Sagebrush Trl Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1981	$1,600	$0.81	24d	1	0.17mi
43878 W Wade Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1685	$1,750	$1.04	3d	1	0.22mi
43854 W Cahill Dr Unit 1545679P Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1689	$2,258	$1.34	15d	1	0.27mi
21047 N Alma Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,995	$1.23	44d	1	0.27mi
44212 W Cydnee Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,700	$1.18	44d	1	0.34mi
20793 N Marquez Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,550	$1.08	44d	1	0.37mi
43207 W Lindgren Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1907	$1,699	$0.89	44d	1	0.49mi
21061 N Bustos Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1907	$1,749	$0.92	44d	1	0.53mi
20544 N Alma Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2301	$2,200	$0.96	5d	1	0.56mi
44812 W Paraiso Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,595	$1.13	3d	1	0.56mi
22257 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,795	$0.99	24d	1	0.56mi
22257 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,795	$0.99	20d	1	0.56mi
22257 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,795	$0.99	44d	1	0.56mi
43849 W Kramer Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,895	$1.01	17d	1	0.57mi
22165 N Celtic Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2363	$2,295	$0.97	1d	1	0.58mi
22156 N Sunset Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2112	$2,100	$0.99	1d	1	0.66mi
43205 W Roth Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2215	$2,200	$0.99	44d	1	0.68mi
43205 W Roth Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2216	$2,100	$0.95	11d	1	0.68mi
43332 W Griffis Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2235	$4,200	$1.88	44d	1	0.68mi
19696 N Madison Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2219	$3,400	$1.53	24d	1	0.69mi
44456 W Eddie Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1679	$1,695	$1.01	44d	1	0.70mi
45192 W Alamendras St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	1.5	1461	$1,600	$1.10	24d	1	0.80mi
22641 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2169	$1,699	$0.78	44d	1	0.81mi
43914 W Adobe Cir Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2168	$2,070	$0.95	44d	1	0.83mi
45023 W Miramar Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1653	$3,000	$1.81	44d	1	0.85mi
44415 W Knauss Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2454	$1,895	$0.77	44d	1	0.86mi
44171 W Adobe Cir Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2160	$2,100	$0.97	1d	1	0.88mi
45296 W Gavilan Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2309	$1,925	$0.83	13d	1	0.89mi
45138 W Miramar Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2012	$1,725	$0.86	44d	1	0.89mi
45295 W Gavilan Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2412	$2,400	$1.00	15d	1	0.90mi
43194 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1937	$1,850	$0.96	15d	1	0.93mi
44216 W Palmen Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2604	$1,895	$0.73	44d	1	0.95mi
44425 W Oster Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,200	$0.88	5d	1	0.96mi
44151 W Palmen Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2604	$2,350	$0.90	18d	1	0.97mi
43368 W Palmen Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2200	$1,889	$0.86	44d	1	1.00mi
42376 W Chisholm Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2312	$2,000	$0.87	5d	1	1.01mi
19680 N Ortman Cir Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1975	$1,700	$0.86	3d	1	1.07mi
19676 N Locke Ct Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	2466	$1,995	$0.81	44d	1	1.09mi
43223 W Neely Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2223	$2,900	$1.30	17d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $62 · $744/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,995 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,995 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,995 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,995 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,995 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,995 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,995 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,995 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,995 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,995 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,995 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,995 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,995 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,995 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    price $299,995 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    One of the best-priced homes in Maricopa. Positioned within the established Rancho El Dorado community, This home presents a compelling blend of space, design, and value. Encompassing approximately 2,000 square feet, this two-story residence offers a refined yet functional layout with three bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, and a versatile loft that can easily serve as a fourth bedroom or executive workspace. The home opens to an inviting interior where natural light enhances the expansive living areas. The main level is designed with flow in mind, seamlessly connecting gathering spaces to create an environment that feels both open and intentional. The kitchen anchors the home, offering a central space for daily living and entertaining alike. Seller is highly motivated.

16. 2026-04-09
    listed $319,995 Active 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    One of the best-priced homes in Maricopa. Positioned within the established Rancho El Dorado community, This home presents a compelling blend of space, design, and value. Encompassing approximately 2,000 square feet, this two-story residence offers a refined yet functional layout with three bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, and a versatile loft that can easily serve as a fourth bedroom or executive workspace. The home opens to an inviting interior where natural light enhances the expansive living areas. The main level is designed with flow in mind, seamlessly connecting gathering spaces to create an environment that feels both open and intentional. The kitchen anchors the home, offering a central space for daily living and entertaining alike. Seller is highly motivated.

17. 2016-12-20
    soldstatus $155,000 Closed 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Super Clean move in ready 3BR, 2.5 bath, Two Story home in the GOLF COURSE community of Rancho El Dorado! Close to schools and shopping. This home has New carpet, paint and tile in all the right places. The home has a welcoming open floor plan. The back yard is completed with low maintenance desert landscaping. This would also be a great home for an investor, winter visitor or permanent home owner. The furniture is also for sale on a separate bill of sale for additional funds.

18. 2016-12-20
    soldstatus $155,000

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Super Clean move in ready 3BR, 2.5 bath, Two Story home in the GOLF COURSE community of Rancho El Dorado! Close to schools and shopping. This home has New carpet, paint and tile in all the right places. The home has a welcoming open floor plan. The back yard is completed with low maintenance desert landscaping. This would also be a great home for an investor, winter visitor or permanent home owner. The furniture is also for sale on a separate bill of sale for additional funds.

19. 2016-12-10
    listed $153,900 Active 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Super Clean move in ready 3BR, 2.5 bath, Two Story home in the GOLF COURSE community of Rancho El Dorado! Close to schools and shopping. This home has New carpet, paint and tile in all the right places. The home has a welcoming open floor plan. The back yard is completed with low maintenance desert landscaping. This would also be a great home for an investor, winter visitor or permanent home owner. The furniture is also for sale on a separate bill of sale for additional funds.

20. 2016-12-09
    soldstatus $155,000 Closed 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Super Clean move in ready 3BR, 2.5 bath, Two Story home in the GOLF COURSE community of Rancho El Dorado! Close to schools and shopping. This home has New carpet, paint and tile in all the right places. The home has a welcoming open floor plan. The back yard is completed with low maintenance desert landscaping. This would also be a great home for an investor, winter visitor or permanent home owner. The furniture is also for sale on a separate bill of sale for additional funds.

21. 2016-11-01
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Super Clean move in ready 3BR, 2.5 bath, Two Story home in the GOLF COURSE community of Rancho El Dorado! Close to schools and shopping. This home has New carpet, paint and tile in all the right places. The home has a welcoming open floor plan. The back yard is completed with low maintenance desert landscaping. This would also be a great home for an investor, winter visitor or permanent home owner. The furniture is also for sale on a separate bill of sale for additional funds.

22. 2016-10-31
    historical 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Super Clean move in ready 3BR, 2.5 bath, Two Story home in the GOLF COURSE community of Rancho El Dorado! Close to schools and shopping. This home has New carpet, paint and tile in all the right places. The home has a welcoming open floor plan. The back yard is completed with low maintenance desert landscaping. This would also be a great home for an investor, winter visitor or permanent home owner. The furniture is also for sale on a separate bill of sale for additional funds.

23. 2016-09-07
    status Active 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Super Clean move in ready 3BR, 2.5 bath, Two Story home in the GOLF COURSE community of Rancho El Dorado! Close to schools and shopping. This home has New carpet, paint and tile in all the right places. The home has a welcoming open floor plan. The back yard is completed with low maintenance desert landscaping. This would also be a great home for an investor, winter visitor or permanent home owner. The furniture is also for sale on a separate bill of sale for additional funds.

24. 2016-09-03
    status Pending 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Super Clean move in ready 3BR, 2.5 bath, Two Story home in the GOLF COURSE community of Rancho El Dorado! Close to schools and shopping. This home has New carpet, paint and tile in all the right places. The home has a welcoming open floor plan. The back yard is completed with low maintenance desert landscaping. This would also be a great home for an investor, winter visitor or permanent home owner. The furniture is also for sale on a separate bill of sale for additional funds.

25. 2016-08-12
    price $153,900 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Super Clean move in ready 3BR, 2.5 bath, Two Story home in the GOLF COURSE community of Rancho El Dorado! Close to schools and shopping. This home has New carpet, paint and tile in all the right places. The home has a welcoming open floor plan. The back yard is completed with low maintenance desert landscaping. This would also be a great home for an investor, winter visitor or permanent home owner. The furniture is also for sale on a separate bill of sale for additional funds.

26. 2016-06-06
    price $157,900 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Super Clean move in ready 3BR, 2.5 bath, Two Story home in the GOLF COURSE community of Rancho El Dorado! Close to schools and shopping. This home has New carpet, paint and tile in all the right places. The home has a welcoming open floor plan. The back yard is completed with low maintenance desert landscaping. This would also be a great home for an investor, winter visitor or permanent home owner. The furniture is also for sale on a separate bill of sale for additional funds.

27. 2016-04-27
    listed $159,900 Active 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Super Clean move in ready 3BR, 2.5 bath, Two Story home in the GOLF COURSE community of Rancho El Dorado! Close to schools and shopping. This home has New carpet, paint and tile in all the right places. The home has a welcoming open floor plan. The back yard is completed with low maintenance desert landscaping. This would also be a great home for an investor, winter visitor or permanent home owner. The furniture is also for sale on a separate bill of sale for additional funds.

28. 2009-02-21
    soldstatus $77,777
29. 2009-01-13
    historical
30. 2008-09-08
    listed $85,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,881 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,980 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$99/yr (+$8/mo · 5.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,402
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$1,881
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,952
• − Management: −$1,952
• − HOA: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$9,159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,198
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+249.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $299,995 ARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $319,995 ARMLS
• 2016-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2016-12-20 Sold (MLS) $155,000 ARMLS
• 2016-12-10 Listed $153,900 ARMLS
• 2016-12-09 Sold (MLS) $155,000 ARMLS
• 2016-11-01 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2016-10-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2016-09-07 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2016-09-03 Pending — ARMLS
• 2016-08-12 Price Changed $153,900 ARMLS
• 2016-06-06 Price Changed $157,900 ARMLS
• 2016-04-27 Listed $159,900 ARMLS
• 2009-02-21 Sold (MLS) $77,777 ARMLS
• 2009-01-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-09-08 Listed $85,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,881 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.