4757 Airlake Dr · Woodbury, MN 55129

$389,990

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,983 sqft · Townhouse · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 1,742 sqft lot $197/sqft · at area comps Est $396k · at est. $269/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Estimated completion July-August. Welcome to the Ashton floorplan featuring an inviting, open-concept kitchen and living space, perfect for entertaining. This home has a SUNROOM, too! Enjoy the sleek white cabinets, gorgeous white quartz countertops, and a spacious island. Relax in the gathering room in front of the fireplace, where three large windows along the back wall fill the space with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The upper level offers three bedrooms, including two with walk-in closets, as well as two full bathrooms and a separate laundry. Located in AirLake, this home is just steps away from a brand-new city park featuring a playground, baseball field, bas

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Gathering room
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SUNROOM
• WHITE QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• GATHERING ROOM
• FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions provided for property access
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $269; Association covers lawn care, snow removal and professional management; Association provides in-ground sprinkler system; Association: First Service Residential

Exterior

• Parking: Attached insulated garage with garage door opener; Asphalt driveway; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; 150 amp electrical service; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential attached property (townhome); Two levels; Builder: Pulte Homes; New construction; Pitched asphalt roof (age 8 years or less); Entry faces city street with curb, paved streets and street lights
• Construction: Slab foundation; Foundation area approximately 915; Construction materials: vinyl and stone; Roof: asphalt, pitched
• Exterior features: Patio; Stone and vinyl exterior; Privacy vinyl fencing; In-ground sprinkler system; Sod included; Light tree coverage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with center island; Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Disposal; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom with private ensuite and walk-in closet; Two additional bedrooms located on the upper level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom (main floor); Primary ensuite with 3/4 bath and walk-in shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Electric water heater
• Interior features: Air-to-air exchanger; Energy Star qualified appliances; Indoor sprinklers; Walk-in closets; Breakfast area / eat-in kitchen; Informal dining room; Sun room; Mud room; 3 BR on one level (principal living arranged across two levels with bedrooms upstairs); Has electric fireplace in the family room (1 fireplace); 3/4 primary bath with private ensuite and walk-in shower
• Laundry & utility: Upper-level laundry with washer and electric dryer hookups; Washer/dryer hookup included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-301 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $337k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Woodbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#6 in MN, #153 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• South Washington County School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #40 of 301 in MN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Middleton Elementary (math 64% / reading 57%, grade B-, #203 of 857 statewide, top 24%, 586 students, 19% FRL); Cottage Grove Middle School (math 33% / reading 51%, grade D-, #131 of 258 statewide, top 53%, 924 students, 33% FRL); East Ridge High School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade B+, #13 of 471 statewide, top 3%, 2,021 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $287,565 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.31%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $396,220
• List price: $389,990
• Delta: -1.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-82,651
• Equity at exit: $58,149

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-97,842
• Equity at exit: $33,719

Cash invested: $109,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55129

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 357
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,876 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,152/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$269
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $-301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,257

Max offer price $336,838

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-80	-5% $-191	+0% $-301	+5% $-411	+10% $-522
Rent	-10% $-528	-5% $-414	+0% $-301	+5% $-187	+10% $-74
Rate	-1.0pp $-104	-0.5pp $-202	base $-301	+0.5pp $-402	+1.0pp $-505

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,498
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10692 Wiles Way Saint Paul, MN	3.0	3.0	1777	$2,600	$1.46	45d	1	0.34mi
10108 Sunbird Cir Saint Paul, MN	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1815	$3,298	$1.82	0d	7	0.36mi
11007 Oakgrove Cir Woodbury, MN	3.0	2.5	1826	$2,400	$1.31	45d	1	1.15mi
3790 Hazel Trl Unit B Saint Paul, MN	3.0	3.0	1560	$2,395	$1.54	45d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $269 · $3,228/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 829-char remark
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $389,990 Active 829-char remark
3. 2024-08-15
   soldstatus $6,632,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,152 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,760 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,608/yr (+$134/mo · 139.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$1,152
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,761
• − Management: −$2,761
• − HOA: −$3,228
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$10,534
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,528
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Washington County School District
• NCES district ID: 2733810
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $88,285
• Composite: 51.8/100
• National rank: #1670
• State rank: #40 of 301 in MN

Livability — Woodbury

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #153

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodbury, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 78,305
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 34,120
• Household income: $143,795
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 639.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Asian 17% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.89%
• Current HPI: 216.0248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.91%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-94.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $389,990 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $6,632,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+71.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,152 · +71.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.