407 Watkins Ave · Opelika, AL 36804

$240,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1978 0.34 ac lot Est $275k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Edgewood Forest subdivision
• HOA & community: Community offers cable TV

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Residential property; Two levels
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Electric range; Disposal
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling; Electric cooling; Space heater for heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.8% in Opelika — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#188 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Opelika City (urban): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #45 of 129 in AL (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside School (math 39% / reading 57%, grade D, #135 of 627 statewide, top 22%, 435 students, 62% FRL); Opelika Middle School (math 19% / reading 39%, grade F, #134 of 257 statewide, top 53%, 1,132 students, 72% FRL); Opelika High School (math 27% / reading 24%, grade F, #111 of 305 statewide, top 37%, 1,562 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 397 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,858 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (113 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +54% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,610 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.29%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2589 Arlee Ave	0.51mi	4/2.5	1,759 (-2%)	1mo	$277,140	$158	66
2598 Stokes Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	1,759 (-2%)	2mo	$269,993	$153	64
2595 Stokes Dr	0.55mi	4/2.5	1,759 (-2%)	1mo	$276,790	$157	64
2619 Stokes Dr	0.55mi	4/2.5	1,759 (-2%)	4mo	$259,993	$148	61
2655 Stokes Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	1,759 (-2%)	5mo	$269,590	$153	61
2643 Stokes Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,875 (+4%)	5mo	$259,993	$139	54
2646 Stokes Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,875 (+4%)	6mo	$259,993	$139	52
2661 Stokes Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,875 (+4%)	6mo	$254,993	$136	52
2625 Stokes Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,875 (+4%)	6mo	$255,000	$136	52
2589 Stokes Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,636 (-9%)	0mo	$265,590	$162	48
2604 Stokes Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,636 (-9%)	2mo	$259,993	$159	47
2650 Jansen Ave	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,001 (+11%)	6mo	$274,993	$137	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-30,810
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-16,699
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36804

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Active inventory: 397
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,996 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,079/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,834

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $264	-5% $196	+0% $128	+5% $60	+10% $-7
Rent	-10% $-29	-5% $50	+0% $128	+5% $207	+10% $286
Rate	-1.0pp $249	-0.5pp $189	base $128	+0.5pp $66	+1.0pp $3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
613 Lismore Dr Opelika, AL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	45d	1	0.30mi
127 Raiden Cir Opelika, AL	3.0	2.5	1937	$2,200	$1.14	15d	1	0.61mi
2704 Matsu Ln Opelika, AL	3.0	2.0	1430	$2,350	$1.64	23d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $240,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $240,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $240,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,079
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,916
• − Management: −$1,916
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$2,584
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$620
• After-tax cash flow: $2,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Opelika City
• NCES district ID: 0102580
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $40,081
• Composite: 29.34/100
• National rank: #6541
• State rank: #45 of 129 in AL

Livability — Opelika

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #188
• US rank: #15556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Opelika, AL
• County: Lee County · 144,175 people
• City population: 45,973
• Metro: Auburn-Opelika, AL
• Population (ZIP): 20,535
• Household income: $61,880
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 399.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,440 people
• By 2030: 217,417 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 259,467 · +32.1%
• By 2050: 301,557 · +53.5%
• By 2075: 402,186 · +104.7%
• By 2100: 474,503 · +141.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Korean 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 35.5% · R 63.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.8pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+19.9 2008: R+19.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.83%
• Current HPI: 212.8718
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Auburn-Opelika, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $240,000 LCMLS