203 Graham St · South Fulton, TN 38257

$14,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,268 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1940 4,791 sqft lot $12/sqft · 86% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention investors and DIY enthusiasts! Multiple exit strategies: finish this remodel then either flip, rent or move in! Home being sold as is. Cash preferred but will consider financed all offers.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 49 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $14k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#73 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities D, schools D-.
• Obion County (rural): math 40% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #17 of 139 in TN (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Obion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $103 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $447 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Obion County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $1k; list at $15k implies a 964% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $14,453 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 65.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 210.66%
• DSCR: 10.37
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,803
• List price: $14,900
• Delta: -86.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
317 Holmes St. St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,348 (+6%)	2mo	$98,650	$73	63
302 East Dr. Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,188 (-6%)	1mo	$127,000	$107	60
1202 Vine St	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,150 (-9%)	2mo	$121,000	$105	58
1300 E Stateline St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,098 (-13%)	4mo	$95,400	$87	55
405 E Collinwood St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,320 (+4%)	24mo	$139,900	$106	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.16×
• Total profit: $17,343
• Equity at exit: $2,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 92.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.90×
• Total profit: $41,316
• Equity at exit: $1,288

Cash invested: $4,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38257

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,058 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$78
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $233/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $671

Max offer price $14,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $314	-5% $310	+0% $306	+5% $302	+10% $297
Rent	-10% $222	-5% $264	+0% $306	+5% $348	+10% $389
Rate	-1.0pp $313	-0.5pp $310	base $306	+0.5pp $302	+1.0pp $298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,725
• Closing costs: $447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $14,900 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $14,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $14,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $14,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-05-06
   price $14,900 198-char remark

   Show marketing remark (198 chars)

   Attention investors and DIY enthusiasts! Multiple exit strategies: finish this remodel then either flip, rent or move in! Home being sold as is. Cash preferred but will consider financed all offers.

6. 2026-04-14
   listed $24,900 Active 198-char remark

   Show marketing remark (198 chars)

   Attention investors and DIY enthusiasts! Multiple exit strategies: finish this remodel then either flip, rent or move in! Home being sold as is. Cash preferred but will consider financed all offers.

7. 2019-10-10
   soldstatus $1,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $233 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $233 · $19/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$835
• − Property taxes: −$233
• − Insurance: −$5,193
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,016
• − Management: −$1,016
• − Depreciation: −$433
• Taxable income: $3,975
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$954
• After-tax cash flow: $2,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Obion County
• NCES district ID: 4703270
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,678
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5710
• State rank: #17 of 139 in TN

Livability — South Fulton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #8870

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Fulton, TN
• Population (ZIP): 4,205

Population outlook (Obion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,434 people
• By 2030: 27,100 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 24,381 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 22,043 · -22.5%
• By 2075: 18,236 · -35.9%
• By 2100: 16,435 · -42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Obion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.9) · D 17.2% · R 82.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.8pp toward R · 2008: -34.1pp · 2024: -64.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.9 2020: R+60.6 2016: R+58.1 2012: R+44.7 2008: R+34.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.44%
• Current HPI: 210.9462
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+964.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $14,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $24,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $1,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $233 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.