419 Creek Branch Ct · Lexington, SC 29072

$299,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 195 Days on market

Built 2010 6,969 sqft lot $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home with loft area is located just minutes from downtown Columbia. Formal living area with lots of natural light, laundry room on the 2nd level, owner's suite has a luxurious garden tub with separate shower and large walk-in closet. Loft area is a great versatile area for working, gaming or just relaxing with the family. Home overlooks natural pond.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Walk-in closet
• Natural light

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• GARDEN TUB
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• LOFT AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $375

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water (implied); Public sewer (implied)
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; House; Residential property
• Construction: Stone veneer and vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a house (structure type)
• Exterior features: Patio; Sprinklers in front

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Disposal; Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#8 in SC, #1,502 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: commute F.
• Lexington 01 (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #11 of 80 in SC (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Midway Elementary (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B, #63 of 597 statewide, top 11%, 891 students, 9% FRL); Meadow Glen Middle (math 51% / reading 65%, grade B, #17 of 229 statewide, top 7%, 808 students, 20% FRL); River Bluff High (math 54% / reading 93%, grade B+, #43 of 196 statewide, top 22%, 2,197 students, 19% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lexington 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,187 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.05%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-38,966
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-20,169
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29072

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,344/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,330

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $313	-5% $229	+0% $144	+5% $59	+10% $-26
Rent	-10% $-55	-5% $44	+0% $144	+5% $243	+10% $342
Rate	-1.0pp $295	-0.5pp $220	base $144	+0.5pp $66	+1.0pp $-13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Ripple Ct Lexington, SC	4.0	2.5	2652	$2,430	$0.92	5d	1	0.30mi
303 Newport Hill Ln Lexington, SC	3.0	2.5	1800	$3,100	$1.72	25d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-09
   status Active
3. 2026-01-08
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-31
   price $299,900
5. 2025-11-05
   listed $314,900 Active
6. 2025-10-06
   historical
7. 2025-07-03
   status Active
8. 2025-07-02
   status Active
9. 2025-07-02
   price $307,500
10. 2025-04-17
    price $315,000
11. 2025-03-13
    listed $320,000 Active
12. 2025-03-06
    listed $307,500 Active
13. 2020-09-22
    soldstatus $224,900
14. 2020-07-30
    historical
15. 2020-07-28
    price $220,000
16. 2020-07-17
    status Active
17. 2020-07-09
    historical
18. 2020-06-26
    listed $224,900 Active
19. 2020-04-15
    price $229,000
20. 2009-06-05
    soldstatus $122,080

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,344 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,709 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$365/yr (+$30/mo · 27.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,344
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,411
• − Management: −$2,411
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$3,419
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$821
• After-tax cash flow: $2,545/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington 01
• NCES district ID: 4502700
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,298
• Composite: 41.75/100
• National rank: #3399
• State rank: #11 of 80 in SC

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #1502

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lexington County · 232,571 people
• City population: 122,563
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 69,407
• Household income: $106,382
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 858.0

Population outlook (Lexington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 322,999 people
• By 2030: 342,356 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 377,715 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 406,984 · +26.0%
• By 2075: 465,447 · +44.1%
• By 2100: 485,674 · +50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lexington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.5% · R 66.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: -38.0pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+30.1 2016: R+36.7 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+38.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.53%
• Current HPI: 212.3235
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.23%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+145.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — SBOR
• 2026-01-09 Relisted — SBOR
• 2026-01-08 Pending — SBOR
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $299,900 SBOR
• 2025-11-05 Listed $314,900 SBOR
• 2025-10-06 Listing Removed — Charleston Trident MLS
• 2025-07-03 Relisted — Charleston Trident MLS
• 2025-07-02 Relisted — Charleston Trident MLS
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $307,500 Charleston Trident MLS
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $315,000 Charleston Trident MLS
• 2025-03-13 Listed $320,000 Charleston Trident MLS
• 2025-03-06 Listed $307,500 Consolidated MLS
• 2020-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $224,900 Public Records
• 2020-07-30 Delisted — Consolidated MLS
• 2020-07-28 Price Changed $220,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2020-07-17 Relisted — Consolidated MLS
• 2020-07-09 Delisted — Consolidated MLS
• 2020-06-26 Listed $224,900 Consolidated MLS
• 2020-04-15 Price Changed $229,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2009-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $122,080 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,344 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.