417 Lawrence St · Montgomery City, MO 63361

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 810 sqft · Other public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1950 7,461 sqft lot $93/sqft · 31% below area Est $122k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom, 1 full bath home, previously used as a rental. 1 car attached. Gas forced air, c/a. Near the park.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Near the park
• Gas forced air

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• GAS FORCED AIR
• NEAR THE PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($950 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#334 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Montgomery County R-II (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #206 of 324 in MO (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 47 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.21%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $121,820
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -38.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $5,896
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $28,328
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63361

• Home prices YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $507/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $591

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 longview CIR Montgomery City, MO	2.0	1.0	916	$950	$1.04	12d	1	0.23mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   status $75,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   status $75,000 Pending 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $75,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $75,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-08
    price $79,900 109-char remark

    Show marketing remark (109 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 full bath home, previously used as a rental. 1 car attached. Gas forced air, c/a. Near the park.

14. 2026-04-21
    listed $85,000 Active 109-char remark

    Show marketing remark (109 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 full bath home, previously used as a rental. 1 car attached. Gas forced air, c/a. Near the park.

15. 2021-09-24
    price $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $507 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $728 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$220/yr (+$18/mo · 43.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$507
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$912
• − Management: −$912
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $2,311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$555
• After-tax cash flow: $2,849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County R-II
• NCES district ID: 2921330
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,644
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #6294
• State rank: #206 of 324 in MO

Livability — Montgomery City

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #334
• US rank: #15238

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montgomery City, MO
• Population (ZIP): 4,477

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,582 people
• By 2030: 9,897 · -6.5%
• By 2040: 8,556 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 7,293 · -31.1%
• By 2075: 4,998 · -52.8%
• By 2100: 3,204 · -69.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Black 3% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.1) · D 19.5% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.5pp · 2024: -60.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.1 2020: R+56.4 2016: R+55.4 2012: R+33.0 2008: R+18.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.18%
• Current HPI: 259.8836
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+22.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $79,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $85,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-24 Price Changed $65,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $507 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.