410 Catalina Ln · Alamogordo, NM 88310

$95,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1982 ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property Type: Residential Size: 1056 Lot size: 68'x92' Bedrooms: 2 Bathrooms: 1 TO VIEW: must submit Proof of Funds from financial institution and/or Letter of Credit from lending institution to email: [email protected] Great starter home with one large bedroom, walk thru closet and small (office size) second bedroom. New carpet in bedrooms & laundry area. New laminate flooring in bath, hallway and at backdoor entry. New range/stove 2024. Working wood burning fireplace in living room, chimney has been capped off, because of non-use. New package unit, refrigerated air and forced air gas furnace 5/2024. New Metal roof, sewer line, upgraded electrical and plumbing in 2002. We have owned this property for 30 years, has been well maintained and upgraded throughout the years. Home is smoke and pet free. Just cleaned and ready to move into. Storage shed in rear. More pictures posted on: Zillow.com. , For Sale By Owner.com Clear Deed Taxes: $466.00 NOTE: Buyers are responsible for Buyers Realtor's fees/commissions. Property will be sold as is, where is, and no contingencies. Please, serious inquiries only.

Key facts

• Working fireplace
• New carpet
• New range stove

Tags

• NEW RANGE STOVE
• WORKING FIREPLACE
• DESIGNATED DINING ROOM
• NEW CARPET
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW PACKAGE UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $96k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#5 in NM, #3,233 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• Alamogordo Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #26 of 95 in NM (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 444 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $660 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,635 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.07%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $8,560
• Equity at exit: $14,239

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $33,362
• Equity at exit: $8,257

Cash invested: $26,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88310

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,440 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$501
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $462/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $925

Max offer price $95,500

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,875
• Closing costs: $2,865
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1514 Utah Ave Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	1119	$1,450	$1.30	14d	1	0.69mi
1301 Jefferson Ave Unit LAST ONE AVAILABLE!! Alamogordo, NM	2.0	2.0	892	$1,425	$1.60	3d	1	0.94mi
2509 Pecan Dr Unit 11D Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	735	$975	$1.33	21d	1	1.13mi
1301 Fillmore Ave Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	967	$1,095	$1.13	44d	2	1.18mi
1905 12th St Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	704	$850	$1.21	14d	1	1.24mi
2300 Aspen Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,400	$1.02	3d	1	1.38mi
2201 Mesa Ln Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1408	$3,000	$2.13	23d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,500 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,500 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,500 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,500 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,500 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,500 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,500 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,500 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,500 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,500 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,500 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,500 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,500 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,500 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,500 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $95,500 903-char remark
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $98,500 Active 903-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $462 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $764 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$302/yr (+$25/mo · 65.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone AH · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,349
• − Property taxes: −$462
• − Insurance: −$2,302
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,383
• − Management: −$1,383
• − Depreciation: −$2,778
• Taxable income: $3,626
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$870
• After-tax cash flow: $4,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamogordo Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500030
• Math proficiency: 26% —
• Reading proficiency: 39% —
• Median HH income: $42,194
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #11572
• State rank: #26 of 95 in NM

Livability — Alamogordo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #3233

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alamogordo, NM
• County: Otero County · 36,983 people
• City population: 36,983
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• Population (ZIP): 36,983
• Household income: $57,214
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1231.0

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.88%
• Current HPI: 181.737
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Contingent — ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-06-04 Listed $95,500 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $95,500 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $98,500 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $462 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.