953 Sea Breeze · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$324,975

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,236 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1998 0.25 ac lot $263/sqft · 34% below area Est $496k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beachside....Great location close to the beach. Just a few steps away from the ocean. Bright & cheerful decor. Come see this great well-maintained home for either vacation, 2nd home or primary. Can be used for vacation rentals. Great views from the balcony with storm shutters on every window electric can all close down all at the same time. Large yard with fenced in area for your pets. Lots of patios for entertaining lower and upper levels. Metal roof. Come check it out today!

Key facts

• Well maintained home
• Large yard
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• LOCATION CLOSE TO THE BEACH
• STEPS AWAY FROM THE OCEAN
• WELL MAINTAINED HOME
• VIEWS FROM THE BALCONY
• STORM SHUTTERS ON EVERY WINDOW
• LARGE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (5.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $309k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 774 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $308,879 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.62%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $496,005
• List price: $324,975
• Delta: -34.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3415 Sand Dollar Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+5%)	2mo	$329,000	$254	81
3287 Hidden Gold	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,178 (-5%)	6mo	$349,900	$297	62
3450 Hannas Reef	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,408 (+14%)	14mo	$550,000	$391	58
986 Tuna Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-13%)	2mo	$350,000	$324	57
3185 Sea Castle Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,344 (+9%)	7mo	$280,000	$208	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-57,988
• Equity at exit: $48,455

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-56,038
• Equity at exit: $28,098

Cash invested: $90,993 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 774
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,594 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$422 /mo · $5,064/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$755
• Net cashflow: $-91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,710

Max offer price $308,879

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $93	-5% $1	+0% $-91	+5% $-183	+10% $-275
Rent	-10% $-375	-5% $-233	+0% $-91	+5% $51	+10% $193
Rate	-1.0pp $73	-0.5pp $-8	base $-91	+0.5pp $-175	+1.0pp $-261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,244
• Closing costs: $9,749
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3229 Castle Dr Unit 1353849P Crystal Beach, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$3,035	$2.14	6d	1	0.57mi
1714 Texas 87 Unit 1252629P Port Bolivar, TX	3.0	2.0	1345	$4,393	$3.27	0d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-14
   listed $324,975 Active 485-char remark

   Show marketing remark (485 chars)

   Beachside....Great location close to the beach. Just a few steps away from the ocean. Bright & cheerful decor. Come see this great well-maintained home for either vacation, 2nd home or primary. Can be used for vacation rentals. Great views from the balcony with storm shutters on every window electric can all close down all at the same time. Large yard with fenced in area for your pets. Lots of patios for entertaining lower and upper levels. Metal roof. Come check it out today!

2. 2026-03-31
   historical
3. 2026-01-16
   listed $374,999 Active
4. 2025-12-20
   historical
5. 2025-12-03
   price $374,999
6. 2025-08-06
   listed $389,340 Active
7. 2019-03-21
   historical
8. 2019-01-07
   price $249,900
9. 2019-01-07
   price $249,900
10. 2018-09-21
    listed $269,000 Active
11. 2018-07-27
    price $298,000
12. 2007-08-20
    soldstatus
13. 2001-01-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,064 · $422/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,947 · $496/mo
• Expected delta: +$883/yr (+$74/mo · 17.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,204
• − Property taxes: −$5,064
• − Insurance: −$9,653
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,451
• − Management: −$3,451
• − Depreciation: −$9,454
• Taxable loss: −$6,144
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,475
• After-tax cash flow: $381/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• City population: 2,957
• Population (ZIP): 2,362

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $324,975 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $374,999 HARMLS
• 2025-12-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $374,999 HARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Listed $389,340 HARMLS
• 2019-03-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-01-07 Price Changed $249,900 Galveston MLS
• 2019-01-07 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2018-09-21 Listed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2018-07-27 Price Changed $298,000 Galveston MLS
• 2007-08-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,064 · -21.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.