4820 Connella Dr · Alexandria, LA 71302

$94,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 895 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1965 0.47 ac lot $106/sqft · 95% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away at the end of the street, this well-kept home on a large lot offers peace and privacy! Featuring a recently updated roof and heating system, this property is move-in ready with major improvements already handled. Currently tenant-occupied with a long-term renter in place, it presents an excellent opportunity for investors looking for immediate income. Prefer to make it your own? This home also has great potential as a primary residence!

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Large lot
• Heating system

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• RECENTLY UPDATED ROOF
• HEATING SYSTEM
• MOVE-IN READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $541 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 4.9% in Alexandria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#160 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rapides Parish (urban): math 29% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #31 of 98 in LA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 239 units permitted in Rapides Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $653 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rapides County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,830 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.51%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $51,766
• List price: $94,500
• Delta: 82.55%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4707 Joseph St	0.65mi	2/1.0	876 (-2%)	2mo	$14,250	$16	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $19,112
• Equity at exit: $14,090

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $60,967
• Equity at exit: $8,171

Cash invested: $26,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71302

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $954/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $778

Max offer price $94,500

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,625
• Closing costs: $2,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $94,500 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,500 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,500 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,500 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,500 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $94,500 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,500 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $94,500 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,500 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,500 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,500 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,500 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,500 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,500 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,500 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $94,500 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    price $94,500 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    Tucked away at the end of the street, this well-kept home on a large lot offers peace and privacy! Featuring a recently updated roof and heating system, this property is move-in ready with major improvements already handled. Currently tenant-occupied with a long-term renter in place, it presents an excellent opportunity for investors looking for immediate income. Prefer to make it your own? This home also has great potential as a primary residence!

18. 2026-04-13
    listed $99,500 Active 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    Tucked away at the end of the street, this well-kept home on a large lot offers peace and privacy! Featuring a recently updated roof and heating system, this property is move-in ready with major improvements already handled. Currently tenant-occupied with a long-term renter in place, it presents an excellent opportunity for investors looking for immediate income. Prefer to make it your own? This home also has great potential as a primary residence!

19. 2021-10-01
    soldstatus $78,500
20. 2021-03-19
    listed $78,500
21. 2013-10-14
    listed $79,000
22. 2012-11-09
    listed $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $954 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $954 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,293
• − Property taxes: −$954
• − Insurance: −$472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,404
• − Management: −$1,404
• − Depreciation: −$2,749
• Taxable income: $5,268
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,264
• After-tax cash flow: $5,222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rapides Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201290
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -29.00%
• Median HH income: $41,057
• Composite: 30.68/100
• National rank: #6179
• State rank: #31 of 98 in LA

Livability — Alexandria

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #13698

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alexandria, LA
• City population: 25,138
• Population (ZIP): 14,128

Population outlook (Rapides County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 133,047 people
• By 2030: 132,333 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 129,355 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 124,535 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 110,338 · -17.1%
• By 2100: 88,641 · -33.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 83% White 14% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rapides

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.8) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -28.7pp · 2024: -36.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.8 2020: R+32.1 2016: R+32.5 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.36%
• Current HPI: 195.3699
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+142.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $94,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $99,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2021-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $78,500 Public Records
• 2021-03-19 Listed $78,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2013-10-14 Listed $79,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2012-11-09 Listed $39,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $954 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.