2312 Reeder Dr · Lake Isabella, CA 93240

$95,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 226 Days on market

Built 1967 6,534 sqft lot $95/sqft · 33% above area Est $71k · 33% over ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on a nice corner lot, this older 2 bedroom, 1-1/2 bath mobile home offers great potential with a few upgrades. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and plenty of space, featuring a charming front-yard gazebo perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Enjoy the extra large garage for parking or storage, and a spacious enclosed awning area with a pellet stove-perfect for those cozy evenings and added ambiance. Whether you are looking for a starter home or a solid rental investment, this property offers both value and versatility.

Key facts

• Front-yard gazebo
• Extra large garage
• Pellet stove

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• FRONT-YARD GAZEBO
• EXTRA LARGE GARAGE
• SPACIOUS ENCLOSED AWNING AREA
• PELLET STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $525 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 7.4% in Lake Isabella — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#999 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 10→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.70%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $71,170
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 33.48%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2348 Sweetwater Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-4%)	3mo	$197,500	$206	70
2013 Kem	0.41mi	2/1.0	926 (-7%)	8mo	$115,000	$124	60
2032 Rainbow Dr	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,128 (+13%)	1mo	$178,500	$158	58
2216 Angler Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0	929 (-7%)	23mo	$150,000	$161	43
2612 Flower St	0.64mi	2/1.0	926 (-7%)	18mo	$186,800	$202	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $58,400
• Equity at exit: $57,041

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.50×
• Total profit: $146,365
• Equity at exit: $101,205

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93240

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,502 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $837

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 226 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 221 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 218 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 209 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 208 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $95,000 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Situated on a nice corner lot, this older 2 bedroom, 1-1/2 bath mobile home offers great potential with a few upgrades. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and plenty of space, featuring a charming front-yard gazebo perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Enjoy the extra large garage for parking or storage, and a spacious enclosed awning area with a pellet stove-perfect for those cozy evenings and added ambiance. Whether you are looking for a starter home or a solid rental investment, this property offers both value and versatility.

17. 2026-03-29
    status Active 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Situated on a nice corner lot, this older 2 bedroom, 1-1/2 bath mobile home offers great potential with a few upgrades. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and plenty of space, featuring a charming front-yard gazebo perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Enjoy the extra large garage for parking or storage, and a spacious enclosed awning area with a pellet stove-perfect for those cozy evenings and added ambiance. Whether you are looking for a starter home or a solid rental investment, this property offers both value and versatility.

18. 2025-12-30
    price $105,000 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Situated on a nice corner lot, this older 2 bedroom, 1-1/2 bath mobile home offers great potential with a few upgrades. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and plenty of space, featuring a charming front-yard gazebo perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Enjoy the extra large garage for parking or storage, and a spacious enclosed awning area with a pellet stove-perfect for those cozy evenings and added ambiance. Whether you are looking for a starter home or a solid rental investment, this property offers both value and versatility.

19. 2025-10-27
    listed $115,000 Active 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Situated on a nice corner lot, this older 2 bedroom, 1-1/2 bath mobile home offers great potential with a few upgrades. The fully fenced yard provides privacy and plenty of space, featuring a charming front-yard gazebo perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Enjoy the extra large garage for parking or storage, and a spacious enclosed awning area with a pellet stove-perfect for those cozy evenings and added ambiance. Whether you are looking for a starter home or a solid rental investment, this property offers both value and versatility.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,485 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,485 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 10 d/yr ≥93°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,029
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,442
• − Management: −$1,442
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $5,100
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,224
• After-tax cash flow: $5,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Isabella

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #999
• US rank: #24814

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Isabella, CA
• City population: 5,622
• Population (ZIP): 5,622

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.55%
• Current HPI: 341.2481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-17.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $95,000 SSMLS
• 2026-03-29 Relisted — SSMLS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $105,000 SSMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listed $115,000 SSMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,485 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.