257 County Road 2142c · Big Thicket Lake Estates, TX 77327

$105,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,126 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 143 Days on market

Built 1975 1.12 ac lot $93/sqft · 24% below area Est $137k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming cabin-style home situated on 1.1183 acres across two lots, located near a creek. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath brick home offers a quiet, nature-surrounded setting ideal for those seeking space and privacy outside the city. The property features mature trees and a rustic cabin feel with solid brick construction and unique character. The home needs some TLC, providing an excellent opportunity for a new owner to renovate and customize to their own ideas. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this property offers room to grow and the chance to create something truly your own.

Key facts

• Cabin style home
• Mature trees
• 1.12 acre lot

Tags

• CABIN STYLE HOME
• NATURE SURROUNDED SETTING
• MATURE TREES
• SOLID BRICK CONSTRUCTION
• OPPORTUNITY TO RENOVATE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.0% in Big Thicket Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,532 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hardin ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #354 of 826 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hardin El (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 607 students, 67% FRL); Hardin J H (math 28% / reading 44%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 316 students, 60% FRL); Hardin H S (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 394 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.30%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,353
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -23.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
291 County Road 2142c	0.03mi	2/1.0	960 (-15%)	11mo	$139,900	$146	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $11,333
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $50,304
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $664/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $822

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $483	-5% $454	+0% $424	+5% $394	+10% $364
Rent	-10% $316	-5% $370	+0% $424	+5% $477	+10% $531
Rate	-1.0pp $477	-0.5pp $451	base $424	+0.5pp $397	+1.0pp $369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $105,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $105,000 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $105,000 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    Charming cabin-style home situated on 1.1183 acres across two lots, located near a creek. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath brick home offers a quiet, nature-surrounded setting ideal for those seeking space and privacy outside the city. The property features mature trees and a rustic cabin feel with solid brick construction and unique character. The home needs some TLC, providing an excellent opportunity for a new owner to renovate and customize to their own ideas. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this property offers room to grow and the chance to create something truly your own.

16. 2026-01-29
    listed $112,000 Active 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    Charming cabin-style home situated on 1.1183 acres across two lots, located near a creek. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath brick home offers a quiet, nature-surrounded setting ideal for those seeking space and privacy outside the city. The property features mature trees and a rustic cabin feel with solid brick construction and unique character. The home needs some TLC, providing an excellent opportunity for a new owner to renovate and customize to their own ideas. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this property offers room to grow and the chance to create something truly your own.

17. 2020-06-01
    soldstatus
18. 2020-06-01
    soldstatus
19. 2020-05-29
    soldstatus Sold 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Beautiful lot in wooded area of Rye, Texas. There is a house on the property which was flooded during Harvey, has been cleared out and is a shell of a home. A perfect opportunity for someone who would like to get away for the weekend and relax. Menard Creek runs behind the house and the property extends all of the way to the creek.

20. 2020-05-18
    status Pending 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Beautiful lot in wooded area of Rye, Texas. There is a house on the property which was flooded during Harvey, has been cleared out and is a shell of a home. A perfect opportunity for someone who would like to get away for the weekend and relax. Menard Creek runs behind the house and the property extends all of the way to the creek.

21. 2020-05-07
    status Option Pending 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Beautiful lot in wooded area of Rye, Texas. There is a house on the property which was flooded during Harvey, has been cleared out and is a shell of a home. A perfect opportunity for someone who would like to get away for the weekend and relax. Menard Creek runs behind the house and the property extends all of the way to the creek.

22. 2020-04-20
    price $40,000 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Beautiful lot in wooded area of Rye, Texas. There is a house on the property which was flooded during Harvey, has been cleared out and is a shell of a home. A perfect opportunity for someone who would like to get away for the weekend and relax. Menard Creek runs behind the house and the property extends all of the way to the creek.

23. 2019-10-13
    listed $47,000 Active 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Beautiful lot in wooded area of Rye, Texas. There is a house on the property which was flooded during Harvey, has been cleared out and is a shell of a home. A perfect opportunity for someone who would like to get away for the weekend and relax. Menard Creek runs behind the house and the property extends all of the way to the creek.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $664 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,258/yr (+$105/mo · 189.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$664
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,305
• − Management: −$1,305
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $3,573
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$857
• After-tax cash flow: $4,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822380
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $48,099
• Composite: 35.54/100
• National rank: #4907
• State rank: #354 of 826 in TX

Livability — Big Thicket Lake Estates

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1532
• US rank: #26123

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+123.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $112,000 HARMLS
• 2020-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-05-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-04-20 Price Changed $40,000 HARMLS
• 2019-10-13 Listed $47,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $664 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.