2805 S 15th St · Springfield, IL 62703

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · Other · 2 Days on market

0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home Is Being Sold To Settle Estate. Motivated Sellers. Tenants Need 24 Hour Notice To Show. Double Lot.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Garage
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Shingle roof
• Construction: Building area about 1150 (living area); Year built not specified
• Exterior features: Level lot; Extra lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (approx. 11' x 13')
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (two main-level bedrooms, each about 10' x 12'); Additional bedroom levels noted: upper level, lower level, basement, third floor/other
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms; Vinyl in kitchen
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Full unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.44%
• DSCR: 2.62
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $24,643
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.88×
• Total profit: $82,188
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62703

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,068 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,640/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $531

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $453	-5% $438	+0% $424	+5% $410	+10% $396
Rent	-10% $340	-5% $382	+0% $424	+5% $466	+10% $509
Rate	-1.0pp $449	-0.5pp $437	base $424	+0.5pp $411	+1.0pp $398

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2949 Fox Bridge Rd Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$960	$1.07	22d	1	0.31mi
6 Ridge Ct Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	905	$1,350	$1.49	45d	1	0.56mi
604 Bryn Mawr Blvd Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	45d	1	0.77mi
2473 Ladley Ct Unit 2108-2 B Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	700	$825	$1.18	45d	1	0.77mi
2473 Ladley Ct Unit 2412-1 L Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	700	$725	$1.04	45d	1	0.77mi
2328 S 10th St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	45d	1	0.81mi
2257 S 10th St Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	45d	1	0.90mi
110 W Lake Shore Dr Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$799	$1.00	22d	1	1.11mi
1908 S 4th St Springfield, IL	1.0	1.0	800	$850	$1.06	22d	1	1.40mi
2005 E Laurel St Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	1.42mi
1929 E Spruce St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 769-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $49,900 Active 769-char remark
3. 1997-02-24
   soldstatus $25,000 104-char remark

   Show marketing remark (104 chars)

   Home Is Being Sold To Settle Estate. Motivated Sellers. Tenants Need 24 Hour Notice To Show. Double Lot.

4. 1996-10-11
   listed $32,500 104-char remark

   Show marketing remark (104 chars)

   Home Is Being Sold To Settle Estate. Motivated Sellers. Tenants Need 24 Hour Notice To Show. Double Lot.

5. 1992-11-24
   soldstatus $15,330

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,640 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,640 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$1,640
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,025
• − Management: −$1,025
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $4,626
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,110
• After-tax cash flow: $3,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• City population: 59,955
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 28,922
• Household income: $45,009
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1626.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 35% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.69%
• Current HPI: 147.0877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.19%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+225.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Sold (MLS) $49,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $49,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-02-24 Sold (MLS) $25,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-10-11 Listed $32,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $15,330 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,640 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.