1553 Hilltown Rd · Hilltown, VA 24330

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily · 281 Days on market

Built 1957 0.85 ac lot Est $142k · 30% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in Fries with convenience. Featuring durable vinyl siding, hardwood flooring, and a low-maintenance metal roof. Located just minutes from the scenic New River, the New River Trail, and the expansive Jefferson National Forest, outdoor enthusiasts will love the endless opportunities for hiking, biking, kayaking, and more. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment property, this cozy home puts you right in the heart of Virginia's natural beauty. Call today!

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Metal roof
• New river

Tags

• VINYL SIDING
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• METAL ROOF
• NEW RIVER
• NEW RIVER TRAIL
• JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($880/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carroll County Public School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #46 of 131 in VA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Carroll County Middle (math 54% / reading 72%, grade B+, #134 of 342 statewide, top 40%, 756 students, 84% FRL); Carroll County High (math 64% / reading 67%, grade B, #204 of 319 statewide, top 65%, 1,069 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,967 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.15%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $142,464
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
647 Eagle Bottom Rd	0.45mi	2/1.0	768 (-14%)	5mo	$122,500	$160	51
788 Eagle Bottom Rd	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+2%)	18mo	$119,900	$131	51
1839 Ivanhoe Rd	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+7%)	16mo	$114,000	$119	42
884 Eagle Bottom Rd	0.63mi	2/1.0	784 (-12%)	11mo	$124,900	$159	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $46,776
• Equity at exit: $76,956

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $132,201
• Equity at exit: $153,777

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24330

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $389/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $757

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 281 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 280 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 279 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 278 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 277 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 275 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 274 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 271 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 270 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 269 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 266 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 264 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 263 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 262 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 261 DOM
16. 2026-01-11
    price $99,900
17. 2025-09-10
    listed $124,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $389 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $819 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$431/yr (+$36/mo · 110.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$389
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$816
• − Management: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$826
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$198
• After-tax cash flow: $1,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100690
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $36,359
• Composite: 53.88/100
• National rank: #1406
• State rank: #46 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hilltown

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hilltown, VA
• Population (ZIP): 2,870

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,768 people
• By 2030: 27,909 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 25,788 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 23,522 · -18.2%
• By 2075: 19,045 · -33.8%
• By 2100: 14,801 · -48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.1% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.4pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+62.7 2016: R+59.6 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+32.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.16%
• Current HPI: 213.619
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $99,900 SWVAR
• 2025-09-10 Listed $124,900 SWVAR

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $389 · +41.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.