5224 Vesta Cir · Stockton, CA 95219

$430,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,665 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 2006 2,492 sqft lot $258/sqft · 21% below area Est $541k · 21% under $180/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience refined living in one of North Stockton's most sought after gated communities near Trinity Parkway Astoria. This beautifully maintained 3 bedroom, 3 bath home offers 1,665 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space, complete with an attached 2-car garage. Enjoy resort-style amenities including a sparkling pool, tennis courts, and clubhouse, all within a well kept HOA community. Ideally located near premier shopping, dining, parks, and commuter routes, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and privacy.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community amenities
• Tennis courts

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITIES
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• TENNIS COURTS
• CLUBHOUSE
• PREMIER SHOPPING
• DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (44.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (41.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (44.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manlio Silva Elementary (math 39% / reading 52%, grade D-, #485 of 1,571 statewide, top 31%, 757 students, 59% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 24% / reading 45%, grade F, #183 of 498 statewide, top 38%, 632 students, 58% FRL); Bear Creek High (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,937 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,846 (44.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.84%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $541,262
• List price: $430,000
• Delta: -20.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5249 Vesta Cir	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,665 (0%)	13mo	$454,900	$273	87
5210 Loki Ln	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,665 (0%)	22mo	$505,000	$303	78
5759 Westchester Cir	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,742 (+5%)	2mo	$502,500	$288	65
6290 Crestview Cir	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,656 (-0%)	8mo	$462,000	$279	61
5758 Westchester Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,614 (-3%)	22mo	$521,000	$323	58
10844 Lakemore Ln	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,772 (+6%)	8mo	$502,500	$284	51
6319 Antler Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+0%)	22mo	$520,000	$311	46
5354 Navarro Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,826 (+10%)	7mo	$505,000	$277	45
6065 Silveroak Cir	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,889 (+14%)	15mo	$535,000	$283	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $167,994
• Equity at exit: $387,378

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.62×
• Total profit: $555,742
• Equity at exit: $835,395

Cash invested: $120,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,523 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax from tax record: −$467 /mo · $5,601/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-1,088

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,900

Max offer price $237,846

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-844	-5% $-966	+0% $-1,088	+5% $-1,209	+10% $-1,331
Rent	-10% $-1,287	-5% $-1,187	+0% $-1,088	+5% $-988	+10% $-888
Rate	-1.0pp $-871	-0.5pp $-978	base $-1,088	+0.5pp $-1,199	+1.0pp $-1,313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,500
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $430,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $430,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $430,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $430,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $430,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $430,000 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $430,000 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $430,000 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $430,000 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $430,000 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $430,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $430,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $430,000 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $430,000 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $430,000 Active 107 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,601 · $467/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,601 · $467/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,275
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,087
• − Property taxes: −$5,601
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,422
• − Management: −$2,422
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$21,075
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,058
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,601 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.