1117 Martin Luther King Jr St · Natchez, MS 39120

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,708 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 308 Days on market

Built 1940 0.47 ac lot $56/sqft · 35% above area Est $70k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Investment Property! 3 Bedroom 1 Bathroom Property being sold in ''AS IS'' condition. There is plenty of parking space available with the accommodation of a spacious yard. All measurements are estimates and should be verified by an appropriate professional.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Parking space
• 0.47 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS YARD
• PARKING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $831 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 4.4% in Natchez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#156 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Joseph L Frazier Elementary (math 5% / reading 13%); Morgantown Middle (math 7% / reading 12%); Natchez High School (math 5% / reading 12%, grade F, #183 of 197 statewide, top 93%, 665 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 308 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 308 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.47%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,478
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 34.79%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 Florida Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,609 (-6%)	4mo	$157,000	$98	58
1 Spruce St	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,733 (+2%)	10mo	$64,600	$37	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $37,489
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $100,702
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,797 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $619/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $831

Break-even live

Break-even rent $746

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $884	-5% $857	+0% $831	+5% $804	+10% $777
Rent	-10% $689	-5% $760	+0% $831	+5% $902	+10% $973
Rate	-1.0pp $878	-0.5pp $855	base $831	+0.5pp $806	+1.0pp $781

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1152 N Dr M L King St Natchez, MS	4.0	2.0	1881	$1,838	$0.98	46d	1	0.11mi
305 N Rankin St Unit A Natchez, MS	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,300	$1.00	46d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $95,000 Active 308 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 307 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 306 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 304 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 303 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 302 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 301 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 299 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 298 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $95,000 Active 295 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 294 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 293 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 292 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 289 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 288 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 287 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 286 DOM
18. 2026-03-25
    price $95,000 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    Great Investment Property! 3 Bedroom 1 Bathroom Property being sold in ''AS IS'' condition. There is plenty of parking space available with the accommodation of a spacious yard. All measurements are estimates and should be verified by an appropriate professional.

19. 2026-02-17
    price $89,900 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    Great Investment Property! 3 Bedroom 1 Bathroom Property being sold in ''AS IS'' condition. There is plenty of parking space available with the accommodation of a spacious yard. All measurements are estimates and should be verified by an appropriate professional.

20. 2026-02-17
    status Active 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    Great Investment Property! 3 Bedroom 1 Bathroom Property being sold in ''AS IS'' condition. There is plenty of parking space available with the accommodation of a spacious yard. All measurements are estimates and should be verified by an appropriate professional.

21. 2026-02-04
    historical 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    Great Investment Property! 3 Bedroom 1 Bathroom Property being sold in ''AS IS'' condition. There is plenty of parking space available with the accommodation of a spacious yard. All measurements are estimates and should be verified by an appropriate professional.

22. 2025-08-04
    listed $89,000 Active 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    Great Investment Property! 3 Bedroom 1 Bathroom Property being sold in ''AS IS'' condition. There is plenty of parking space available with the accommodation of a spacious yard. All measurements are estimates and should be verified by an appropriate professional.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $619 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $751 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$132/yr (+$11/mo · 21.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,568
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$619
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,725
• − Management: −$1,725
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $8,938
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,145
• After-tax cash flow: $7,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Natchez

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #15334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natchez, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+6.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $95,000 MLSU
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $89,900 MLSU
• 2026-02-17 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-02-04 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-08-04 Listed $89,000 MLSU

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $619 · +17.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.