4 Dogwood Road #29 · Ocean Acres, NJ 08050

$247,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,126 sqft · Condo public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1980 $200/mo HOA · 9% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully renovated, single-family home for sale nestled within the desirable 55+ community of Fawn Lakes located in Manahawkin! This 1,126 square foot home boasts brand new white shaker kitchen cabinets with bright granite counters, larger 36'' uppers, upgraded trim package, and new stainless steel appliances, updated flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, fully updated bathrooms, a 1-car integral garage, and a roof covered with tasteful architectural shingles. What are you waiting for? Schedule your showing today for your chance to tour this home for yourself!

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Built 1980

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Quarterly HOA fee (includes exterior building maintenance, lawn care, pool, snow removal, trash and other services); One-time condo/co-op fee; Owner/self-managed association; Community amenities: club house, community center, exercise room, billiard room, library, meeting room, picnic area, walking/jogging paths, lake, shuffleboard, outdoor pool and other shared facilities; Retirement community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space); Driveway parking; On-street parking; Garage with front and rear entry, door opener, and additional storage area
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water; Municipal trash service
• Home design: Detached condominium; Above-grade living; Estimated year built; Designed for seniors (55+ community)
• Construction: Brick and aluminum siding with masonry and stick-built construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Community pool; No tidal water

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen modifications for accessibility
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Modified flooring (accessibility)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Wall unit cooling and other cooling types (electric)
• Interior features: Accessible switches and outlets; Flooring modified for accessibility; Grab bars installed; Kitchen modified for accessibility; Level entry with no stairs; Estimated living area
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $248k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($243/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.1% in Ocean Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#425 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southern Regional School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #251 of 472 in NJ (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ocean Acres Elementary School (665 students, 21% FRL); Southern Regional Middle School (math 21% / reading 53%, grade F, #221 of 431 statewide, top 52%, 905 students, 22% FRL); Southern Regional High School (math 23% / reading 51%, grade F, #217 of 399 statewide, top 57%, 1,845 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 20% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,126 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.35%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-38,796
• Equity at exit: $36,963

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-31,772
• Equity at exit: $21,434

Cash invested: $69,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08050

• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,301 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,300
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,334/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,276

Max offer price $247,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $90	+0% $20	+5% $-50	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-162	-5% $-71	+0% $20	+5% $111	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $83	base $20	+0.5pp $-44	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,975
• Closing costs: $7,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $247,900 Pending 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $247,900 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $247,900 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $247,900 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $247,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $247,900 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $247,900 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $247,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $247,900 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $247,900 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $247,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $247,900 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $247,900 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $247,900 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    listed $247,900 Active
16. 2024-07-26
    price $245,000
17. 2024-07-26
    status Active
18. 2024-04-23
    listed $225,000 Active
19. 2022-12-20
    soldstatus $190,000 Sold 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Beautifully renovated, single-family home for sale nestled within the desirable 55+ community of Fawn Lakes located in Manahawkin! This 1,126 square foot home boasts brand new white shaker kitchen cabinets with bright granite counters, larger 36'' uppers, upgraded trim package, and new stainless steel appliances, updated flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, fully updated bathrooms, a 1-car integral garage, and a roof covered with tasteful architectural shingles. What are you waiting for? Schedule your showing today for your chance to tour this home for yourself!

20. 2022-11-07
    historical Active/Under Contract 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Beautifully renovated, single-family home for sale nestled within the desirable 55+ community of Fawn Lakes located in Manahawkin! This 1,126 square foot home boasts brand new white shaker kitchen cabinets with bright granite counters, larger 36'' uppers, upgraded trim package, and new stainless steel appliances, updated flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, fully updated bathrooms, a 1-car integral garage, and a roof covered with tasteful architectural shingles. What are you waiting for? Schedule your showing today for your chance to tour this home for yourself!

21. 2022-10-28
    price $194,900 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Beautifully renovated, single-family home for sale nestled within the desirable 55+ community of Fawn Lakes located in Manahawkin! This 1,126 square foot home boasts brand new white shaker kitchen cabinets with bright granite counters, larger 36'' uppers, upgraded trim package, and new stainless steel appliances, updated flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, fully updated bathrooms, a 1-car integral garage, and a roof covered with tasteful architectural shingles. What are you waiting for? Schedule your showing today for your chance to tour this home for yourself!

22. 2022-10-22
    price $199,900 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Beautifully renovated, single-family home for sale nestled within the desirable 55+ community of Fawn Lakes located in Manahawkin! This 1,126 square foot home boasts brand new white shaker kitchen cabinets with bright granite counters, larger 36'' uppers, upgraded trim package, and new stainless steel appliances, updated flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, fully updated bathrooms, a 1-car integral garage, and a roof covered with tasteful architectural shingles. What are you waiting for? Schedule your showing today for your chance to tour this home for yourself!

23. 2022-10-07
    price $209,900 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Beautifully renovated, single-family home for sale nestled within the desirable 55+ community of Fawn Lakes located in Manahawkin! This 1,126 square foot home boasts brand new white shaker kitchen cabinets with bright granite counters, larger 36'' uppers, upgraded trim package, and new stainless steel appliances, updated flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, fully updated bathrooms, a 1-car integral garage, and a roof covered with tasteful architectural shingles. What are you waiting for? Schedule your showing today for your chance to tour this home for yourself!

24. 2022-09-23
    price $219,900 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Beautifully renovated, single-family home for sale nestled within the desirable 55+ community of Fawn Lakes located in Manahawkin! This 1,126 square foot home boasts brand new white shaker kitchen cabinets with bright granite counters, larger 36'' uppers, upgraded trim package, and new stainless steel appliances, updated flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, fully updated bathrooms, a 1-car integral garage, and a roof covered with tasteful architectural shingles. What are you waiting for? Schedule your showing today for your chance to tour this home for yourself!

25. 2022-08-25
    price $239,900 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Beautifully renovated, single-family home for sale nestled within the desirable 55+ community of Fawn Lakes located in Manahawkin! This 1,126 square foot home boasts brand new white shaker kitchen cabinets with bright granite counters, larger 36'' uppers, upgraded trim package, and new stainless steel appliances, updated flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, fully updated bathrooms, a 1-car integral garage, and a roof covered with tasteful architectural shingles. What are you waiting for? Schedule your showing today for your chance to tour this home for yourself!

26. 2022-08-12
    price $249,900 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Beautifully renovated, single-family home for sale nestled within the desirable 55+ community of Fawn Lakes located in Manahawkin! This 1,126 square foot home boasts brand new white shaker kitchen cabinets with bright granite counters, larger 36'' uppers, upgraded trim package, and new stainless steel appliances, updated flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, fully updated bathrooms, a 1-car integral garage, and a roof covered with tasteful architectural shingles. What are you waiting for? Schedule your showing today for your chance to tour this home for yourself!

27. 2022-07-29
    price $259,900 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Beautifully renovated, single-family home for sale nestled within the desirable 55+ community of Fawn Lakes located in Manahawkin! This 1,126 square foot home boasts brand new white shaker kitchen cabinets with bright granite counters, larger 36'' uppers, upgraded trim package, and new stainless steel appliances, updated flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, fully updated bathrooms, a 1-car integral garage, and a roof covered with tasteful architectural shingles. What are you waiting for? Schedule your showing today for your chance to tour this home for yourself!

28. 2022-07-08
    price $269,900 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Beautifully renovated, single-family home for sale nestled within the desirable 55+ community of Fawn Lakes located in Manahawkin! This 1,126 square foot home boasts brand new white shaker kitchen cabinets with bright granite counters, larger 36'' uppers, upgraded trim package, and new stainless steel appliances, updated flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, fully updated bathrooms, a 1-car integral garage, and a roof covered with tasteful architectural shingles. What are you waiting for? Schedule your showing today for your chance to tour this home for yourself!

29. 2022-06-24
    price $279,900 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Beautifully renovated, single-family home for sale nestled within the desirable 55+ community of Fawn Lakes located in Manahawkin! This 1,126 square foot home boasts brand new white shaker kitchen cabinets with bright granite counters, larger 36'' uppers, upgraded trim package, and new stainless steel appliances, updated flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, fully updated bathrooms, a 1-car integral garage, and a roof covered with tasteful architectural shingles. What are you waiting for? Schedule your showing today for your chance to tour this home for yourself!

30. 2022-06-10
    price $289,900 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Beautifully renovated, single-family home for sale nestled within the desirable 55+ community of Fawn Lakes located in Manahawkin! This 1,126 square foot home boasts brand new white shaker kitchen cabinets with bright granite counters, larger 36'' uppers, upgraded trim package, and new stainless steel appliances, updated flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, fully updated bathrooms, a 1-car integral garage, and a roof covered with tasteful architectural shingles. What are you waiting for? Schedule your showing today for your chance to tour this home for yourself!

31. 2022-05-23
    listed $299,900 Active 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Beautifully renovated, single-family home for sale nestled within the desirable 55+ community of Fawn Lakes located in Manahawkin! This 1,126 square foot home boasts brand new white shaker kitchen cabinets with bright granite counters, larger 36'' uppers, upgraded trim package, and new stainless steel appliances, updated flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, fully updated bathrooms, a 1-car integral garage, and a roof covered with tasteful architectural shingles. What are you waiting for? Schedule your showing today for your chance to tour this home for yourself!

32. 2002-01-09
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,334 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,253 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,920/yr (+$160/mo · 82.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,886
• − Property taxes: −$2,334
• − Insurance: −$1,240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,209
• − Management: −$2,209
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$7,212
• Taxable loss: −$3,874
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$930
• After-tax cash flow: $1,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3415480
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $70,588
• Composite: 33.85/100
• National rank: #5355
• State rank: #251 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Ocean Acres

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #15187

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Acres, NJ
• City population: 25,936
• Population (ZIP): 27,599

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -404.12%
• Current HPI: 369.8706
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+209.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $247,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-26 Price Changed $245,000 MOMLS
• 2024-07-26 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2024-04-23 Listed $225,000 MOMLS
• 2022-12-20 Sold (MLS) $190,000 MOMLS
• 2022-11-07 Contingent — MOMLS
• 2022-10-28 Price Changed $194,900 MOMLS
• 2022-10-22 Price Changed $199,900 MOMLS
• 2022-10-07 Price Changed $209,900 MOMLS
• 2022-09-23 Price Changed $219,900 MOMLS
• 2022-08-25 Price Changed $239,900 MOMLS
• 2022-08-12 Price Changed $249,900 MOMLS
• 2022-07-29 Price Changed $259,900 MOMLS
• 2022-07-08 Price Changed $269,900 MOMLS
• 2022-06-24 Price Changed $279,900 MOMLS
• 2022-06-10 Price Changed $289,900 MOMLS
• 2022-05-23 Listed $299,900 MOMLS
• 2002-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $2,334 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.