151 Pawnee Trl · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 177 Days on market

Built 2024 4,966 sqft lot $93/sqft · 26% below area Est $187k · 26% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW ROOF REPLACED MAY 2026!! 30 YEAR SHINGLES!! NEVER LIVED IN, SITE BUILT HOME WITH LAKE ACCESS!! Looking for a rental investment property or home for yourself? Cute barndo style site-built home. This NEW HOME has an open floor plan, with a gorgeous modern and neutral color design. It has a great layout and is within walking distance to area boat ramp. Located on a corner lot, small yard for low maintenance. Separate primary bedroom with large on-suite. New stainless-steel appliances in the large kitchen, plenty of counter space for cooking. Lake living at a low price! Take this new home the next level, bring your landscaping ideas, so much potential here if you are looking to be in a lake front neighborhood with super close lake access without breaking the bank! Owner taking a HUGE loss here. Check out that price per square foot, site built for the price of a mobile home.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Close lake access
• Large kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CORNER LOT
• NEW STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE KITCHEN
• LAKE FRONT NEIGHBORHOOD
• CLOSE LAKE ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.39%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,478
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -25.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Cortez St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,554 (+4%)	1mo	$288,000	$185	83
168 Scenic Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,432 (-4%)	0mo	$525,000	$367	80
6104 Chickasaw Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-6%)	0mo	$220,000	$156	64
6112 Ottawa Trl	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-3%)	1mo	$249,999	$172	63
155 Barcelona St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	4mo	$200,000	$139	61
6130 Aztec Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+8%)	2mo	$220,000	$136	59
162 Aztec Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-8%)	4mo	$539,000	$391	58
6105 Chickasaw Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-10%)	2mo	$196,500	$146	54
6147 Inca Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,554 (+4%)	4mo	$325,000	$209	54
113 Nuevo Leon	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-10%)	10mo	$240,000	$178	49
112 Pierce Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	7mo	$149,000	$115	49
111 Lindy Lee Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,702 (+14%)	8mo	$339,000	$199	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-9,927
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,591
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,633 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,657/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,289

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Sierra Madre St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,800	$1.42	43d	1	0.73mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $139,000 Pending 177 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,000 Active Option Contract 177 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $139,000 Active Option Contract 176 DOM
4. 2026-05-07
   price $139,000 886-char remark

   Show marketing remark (886 chars)

   NEW ROOF REPLACED MAY 2026!! 30 YEAR SHINGLES!! NEVER LIVED IN, SITE BUILT HOME WITH LAKE ACCESS!! Looking for a rental investment property or home for yourself? Cute barndo style site-built home. This NEW HOME has an open floor plan, with a gorgeous modern and neutral color design. It has a great layout and is within walking distance to area boat ramp. Located on a corner lot, small yard for low maintenance. Separate primary bedroom with large on-suite. New stainless-steel appliances in the large kitchen, plenty of counter space for cooking. Lake living at a low price! Take this new home the next level, bring your landscaping ideas, so much potential here if you are looking to be in a lake front neighborhood with super close lake access without breaking the bank! Owner taking a HUGE loss here. Check out that price per square foot, site built for the price of a mobile home.

5. 2026-04-20
   price $145,000 886-char remark

   Show marketing remark (886 chars)

   NEW ROOF REPLACED MAY 2026!! 30 YEAR SHINGLES!! NEVER LIVED IN, SITE BUILT HOME WITH LAKE ACCESS!! Looking for a rental investment property or home for yourself? Cute barndo style site-built home. This NEW HOME has an open floor plan, with a gorgeous modern and neutral color design. It has a great layout and is within walking distance to area boat ramp. Located on a corner lot, small yard for low maintenance. Separate primary bedroom with large on-suite. New stainless-steel appliances in the large kitchen, plenty of counter space for cooking. Lake living at a low price! Take this new home the next level, bring your landscaping ideas, so much potential here if you are looking to be in a lake front neighborhood with super close lake access without breaking the bank! Owner taking a HUGE loss here. Check out that price per square foot, site built for the price of a mobile home.

6. 2026-03-10
   price $149,950 886-char remark

   Show marketing remark (886 chars)

   NEW ROOF REPLACED MAY 2026!! 30 YEAR SHINGLES!! NEVER LIVED IN, SITE BUILT HOME WITH LAKE ACCESS!! Looking for a rental investment property or home for yourself? Cute barndo style site-built home. This NEW HOME has an open floor plan, with a gorgeous modern and neutral color design. It has a great layout and is within walking distance to area boat ramp. Located on a corner lot, small yard for low maintenance. Separate primary bedroom with large on-suite. New stainless-steel appliances in the large kitchen, plenty of counter space for cooking. Lake living at a low price! Take this new home the next level, bring your landscaping ideas, so much potential here if you are looking to be in a lake front neighborhood with super close lake access without breaking the bank! Owner taking a HUGE loss here. Check out that price per square foot, site built for the price of a mobile home.

7. 2025-12-05
   listed $150,000 Active 886-char remark

   Show marketing remark (886 chars)

   NEW ROOF REPLACED MAY 2026!! 30 YEAR SHINGLES!! NEVER LIVED IN, SITE BUILT HOME WITH LAKE ACCESS!! Looking for a rental investment property or home for yourself? Cute barndo style site-built home. This NEW HOME has an open floor plan, with a gorgeous modern and neutral color design. It has a great layout and is within walking distance to area boat ramp. Located on a corner lot, small yard for low maintenance. Separate primary bedroom with large on-suite. New stainless-steel appliances in the large kitchen, plenty of counter space for cooking. Lake living at a low price! Take this new home the next level, bring your landscaping ideas, so much potential here if you are looking to be in a lake front neighborhood with super close lake access without breaking the bank! Owner taking a HUGE loss here. Check out that price per square foot, site built for the price of a mobile home.

8. 2025-11-24
   historical
9. 2025-10-24
   price $174,000
10. 2025-10-24
    price $174,000
11. 2025-06-04
    listed $198,000 Active
12. 2025-05-29
    listed $198,000 Active
13. 2024-04-16
    soldstatus
14. 2022-11-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,657 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,657 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,657
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,568
• − Management: −$1,568
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $1,161
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$279
• After-tax cash flow: $2,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-29.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $139,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $149,950 NTREIS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-24 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $174,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $174,000 HCBOR
• 2025-06-04 Listed $198,000 HCBOR
• 2025-05-29 Listed $198,000 NTREIS
• 2024-04-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+50.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,657 · +241.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.