615 S Camden St · Richmond, MO 64085

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,327 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1997 10,803 sqft lot Est $207k · 28% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor Opportunity with Strong Potential in Richmond! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to build equity with a little work. This property has solid bones and a functional layout ready for your vision. The home will require cleanout and cosmetic updates throughout, making it an ideal candidate for renovation. With a spacious living area, sizable bedrooms, and a layout that lends itself well to modern updates, the potential here is clear. Outside, the property features a generous yard with room to enhance curb appeal and outdoor living space. With the right improvements, this home could shine as a primary residence or strong rental inv

Key facts

• Solid bones
• Generous yard
• Curb appeal

Tags

• SOLID BONES
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• GENEROUS YARD
• CURB APPEAL
• OUTDOOR LIVING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($988/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.7% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#198 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Richmond R-XVI (town): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #209 of 324 in MO (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Ray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $443 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Ray County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,018 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.35%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,012
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
623 S Whitmer St	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,450 (+9%)	0mo	$254,900	$176	77
621 S Whitmer St	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,450 (+9%)	1mo	$254,900	$176	77
623 Parnell St	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,237 (-7%)	6mo	$90,000	$73	73
724 S Whitmer St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,348 (+2%)	0mo	$109,000	$81	71
602 W Haven Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+8%)	1mo	$282,500	$198	63
703 W Lexington St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-7%)	4mo	$273,500	$221	63
113 W Royle St	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,145 (-14%)	3mo	$179,000	$156	62
909 W Lexington St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+1%)	7mo	$189,900	$141	62
500 West Haven Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,428 (+8%)	5mo	$279,900	$196	57
302 N Shaw St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,265 (-5%)	6mo	$165,000	$130	53
408 S Shaw St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,131 (-15%)	6mo	$159,900	$141	53
614 S Institute St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,182 (-11%)	5mo	$85,000	$72	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.3% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,961
• Equity at exit: $45,757

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $31,412
• Equity at exit: $56,814

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64085

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,380 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,913/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,276

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $149,900 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   status $149,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   status $149,900 Pending 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
8. 2026-04-13
   price $149,900
9. 2026-04-06
   price $174,500
10. 2026-03-27
    listed $199,897 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,913 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,913 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,913
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,325
• − Management: −$1,325
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,508
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$362
• After-tax cash flow: $1,350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richmond R-XVI
• NCES district ID: 2926480
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $44,070
• Composite: 30.17/100
• National rank: #6321
• State rank: #209 of 324 in MO

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #198
• US rank: #10160

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Richmond, MO
• Population (ZIP): 8,113

Population outlook (Ray County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,420 people
• By 2030: 20,507 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 18,550 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 16,516 · -22.9%
• By 2075: 12,899 · -39.8%
• By 2100: 10,413 · -51.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ray

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.7) · D 25.1% · R 73.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.2pp · 2024: -48.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.7 2020: R+45.0 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+14.9 2008: R+3.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Current HPI: 374.3671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $149,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $174,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $199,897 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,913 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.