445 Orchid Rd · Birmingham, AL 35215

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,103 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1956 0.26 ac lot $109/sqft · 5% below area Est $127k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own a charming home on a quiet street in the Roebuck area! Perfect for first-time buyers or investors looking for their next rental opportunity. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home features hardwood floors and a comfortable living and dining space that flows into the eat-in kitchen. Step outside to enjoy the open deck and patio area overlooking the fenced backyard. The yard is level in both the front and back, offering great usable outdoor space. A one-car carport adds convenience, and the home is clean and move-in ready for its next owners.

Key facts

• Open deck
• Level yard
• Patio area

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• OPEN DECK
• PATIO AREA
• FENCED BACKYARD
• LEVEL YARD
• ONE-CAR CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.31%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,582
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -5.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
421 Wedgeworth Rd	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,092 (-1%)	2mo	$116,400	$107	82
424 13th Ct NW	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,118 (+1%)	1mo	$92,500	$83	76
1317 5th Pl NW	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,086 (-2%)	1mo	$92,500	$85	75
308 13th Ave NW	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,144 (+4%)	7mo	$87,500	$76	70
409 13th Ct NW	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,118 (+1%)	6mo	$98,672	$88	70
508 Camellia Rd	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,048 (-5%)	6mo	$20,000	$19	67
1209 Rose Lynn Ln	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-2%)	0mo	$150,000	$139	66
1360 5th Pl NW	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,220 (+11%)	1mo	$92,500	$76	54
940 Meadowbrook Dr	0.68mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,149 (+4%)	6mo	$108,000	$94	51
1128 Cardwell Ln	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,225 (+11%)	4mo	$93,500	$76	51
217 Killough Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,212 (+10%)	5mo	$100,000	$83	46
1240 Lynn Acres Dr	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,224 (+11%)	6mo	$168,000	$137	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-6,352
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $11,502
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,289 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,617/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,030

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
433 Orchid Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1162	$1,255	$1.08	16d	1	0.07mi
1112 Violet Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,600	$1.13	11d	1	0.18mi
120 Shawnee Ln NW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,075	$0.96	43d	1	0.28mi
1153 Linwood St Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,295	$1.04	3d	1	0.29mi
1225 Birchwood St Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,175	$1.08	3d	1	0.35mi
1232 Oakwood St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1301	$1,223	$0.94	23d	1	0.36mi
520 Camellia Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,100	$1.04	3d	1	0.36mi
1237 Linwood St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1066	$995	$0.93	43d	1	0.40mi
1301 5th Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,100	$0.94	3d	1	0.43mi
400 13th Ave NW Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1100	$890	$0.81	43d	1	0.43mi
1305 5th Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,200	$1.10	43d	1	0.45mi
405 13th Ct NW Center Point, AL	4.0	1.5	1248	$1,415	$1.13	21d	1	0.47mi
1328 5th Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,050	$0.84	16d	1	0.52mi
108 13th Ave NW Center Point, AL	4.0	2.0	1444	$1,265	$0.88	23d	1	0.52mi
1333 5th Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,275	$1.21	43d	1	0.54mi
324 13th Ter NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.5	1418	$1,295	$0.91	23d	1	0.54mi
1356 5th Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,105	$1.04	43d	1	0.61mi
217 Killough Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,200	$0.99	14d	1	0.65mi
940 Meadowbrook Dr Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	1149	$1,300	$1.13	43d	1	0.65mi
932 Five Mile Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,175	$0.98	19d	1	0.74mi
912 Meadowbrook Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1178	$1,100	$0.93	43d	1	0.75mi
945 Elizabeth Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1227	$1,125	$0.92	3d	1	0.75mi
500 15th Ave NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1079	$1,050	$0.97	3d	1	0.78mi
621 15th Ave NW Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1070	$1,200	$1.12	16d	1	0.80mi
241 Mamie Ln Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,495	$1.20	3d	1	0.80mi
832 Meadowbrook Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,225	$1.00	23d	1	0.82mi
208 Sam Pate Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	988	$1,385	$1.40	2d	1	0.83mi
818 Sunset Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	992	$1,000	$1.01	43d	1	0.86mi
837 Wear Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	936	$1,295	$1.38	2d	1	0.89mi
434 15th Ter NW Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,200	$1.14	43d	1	0.91mi
1612 Glenwood St NW Center Point, AL	4.0	3.0	1344	$1,480	$1.10	23d	1	0.96mi
925 Eldorado Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1312	$1,231	$0.94	43d	1	0.96mi
848 Old Trail Rd Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	930	$925	$0.99	23d	1	0.97mi
957 Hickory Cir Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,195	$0.88	3d	1	0.98mi
224 13th Ave NE Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1213	$1,273	$1.05	21d	1	1.01mi
1541 Charter East Cir NE Birmingham, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	807	$1,095	$1.36	2d	8	1.07mi
1617 3rd Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,150	$0.82	23d	1	1.07mi
769 15th Ct NW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1130	$1,310	$1.16	11d	1	1.07mi
628 Annie Laura Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	844	$1,195	$1.42	43d	1	1.15mi
239 Lake Drive Cir NE Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1159	$1,125	$0.97	3d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $120,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $120,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $120,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-05-07
   price $120,000 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   Great opportunity to own a charming home on a quiet street in the Roebuck area! Perfect for first-time buyers or investors looking for their next rental opportunity. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home features hardwood floors and a comfortable living and dining space that flows into the eat-in kitchen. Step outside to enjoy the open deck and patio area overlooking the fenced backyard. The yard is level in both the front and back, offering great usable outdoor space. A one-car carport adds convenience, and the home is clean and move-in ready for its next owners.

6. 2026-03-12
   listed $125,900 Active 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   Great opportunity to own a charming home on a quiet street in the Roebuck area! Perfect for first-time buyers or investors looking for their next rental opportunity. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home features hardwood floors and a comfortable living and dining space that flows into the eat-in kitchen. Step outside to enjoy the open deck and patio area overlooking the fenced backyard. The yard is level in both the front and back, offering great usable outdoor space. A one-car carport adds convenience, and the home is clean and move-in ready for its next owners.

7. 2021-11-03
   soldstatus $115,000
8. 2021-09-30
   soldstatus $115,000 Sold 323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (323 chars)

   This home has been RENOVATED with FRESH PAINT, NEW APPLIANCES. This low maintenance home has ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS throughout. Nice size backyard that yields privacy. Newly installed BLINDS. The large parking pad is ideal for entertaining. This home is situated on a quiet street with minimal traffic flow. WELCOME HOME!

9. 2021-09-17
   historical 323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (323 chars)

   This home has been RENOVATED with FRESH PAINT, NEW APPLIANCES. This low maintenance home has ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS throughout. Nice size backyard that yields privacy. Newly installed BLINDS. The large parking pad is ideal for entertaining. This home is situated on a quiet street with minimal traffic flow. WELCOME HOME!

10. 2021-08-16
    listed $115,000 Active 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    This home has been RENOVATED with FRESH PAINT, NEW APPLIANCES. This low maintenance home has ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS throughout. Nice size backyard that yields privacy. Newly installed BLINDS. The large parking pad is ideal for entertaining. This home is situated on a quiet street with minimal traffic flow. WELCOME HOME!

11. 2000-03-15
    soldstatus $61,390
12. 1996-10-10
    soldstatus $42,000
13. 1990-05-01
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,617 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,617 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,617
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,238
• − Management: −$1,238
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $568
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$136
• After-tax cash flow: $2,319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 43,903
• Household income: $52,793
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1729.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.97%
• Current HPI: 215.0607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+380.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $120,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $125,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-30 Sold (MLS) $115,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-09-17 Delisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-08-16 Listed $115,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2000-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $61,390 Public Records
• 1996-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1990-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,617 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.