15 Hamlet Dr · Commack, NY 11725

$1,125,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,943 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 1995 3,920 sqft lot Est $1098k · at est. $503/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Best Value in Hamlet!! This beautifully updated home combines top Hamlet location with exceptional private backyard which includes gas firepit and beautiful waterview of the 18th hole. Updated EIK, large family room with mahogany built-ins, 3 bedrooms, office/loft, formal living room and dining room. Must see!, Additional information: ExterioFeatures:Tennis

Key facts

• Eat in kitchen
• Gas fireplace
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• VIEW OF THE 18TH FAIRWAY
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• GAS FIREPLACE
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• CUSTOM BUILT INS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Condo association with monthly fee of $503; HOA covers common area maintenance, grounds care, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Private garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEG; Cesspool sewer; Natural gas connected; Private trash collection
• Home design: Condominium; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Brick and vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Granite counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Entry level: 1; Additional room: Loft
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; 2 fireplaces
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; Granite countertops; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Open floor plan; Primary bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.12M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $931 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $1.12M).
• Recommended offer: $1.11M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.3% in Commack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#319 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Commack Union Free School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #61 of 590 in NY (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Rolling Hills School (229 students, 20% FRL); Commack Middle School (math 54% / reading 67%, grade B+, #153 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 1,322 students, 16% FRL); Commack High School (math 98% / reading 97%, grade A+, #19 of 1,100 statewide, top 4%, 1,861 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $34k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.11M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $680k; list at $1.12M implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,108,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.55%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,097,739
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Blacksmith Ln	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,946 (+0%)	12mo	$1,100,000	$373	67
108 Wicks Rd	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,800 (-5%)	11mo	$690,000	$246	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-122,365
• Equity at exit: $167,741

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-27,555
• Equity at exit: $97,269

Cash invested: $315,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11725

• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,900
• Tax from tax record: −$1,678 /mo · $20,135/yr
• Insurance: −$469
• HOA: −$503
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $931

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,822

Max offer price $1,125,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,568	-5% $1,249	+0% $931	+5% $612	+10% $294
Rent	-10% $-17	-5% $457	+0% $931	+5% $1,405	+10% $1,879
Rate	-1.0pp $1,497	-0.5pp $1,217	base $931	+0.5pp $639	+1.0pp $343

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $281,250
• Closing costs: $33,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28 McCulloch Dr Dix Hills, NY	4.0	3.5	3800	$12,000	$3.16	44d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $503 · $6,036/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $1,125,000 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,125,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,125,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,125,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,125,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $20,135 · $1,678/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $20,135 · $1,678/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $144,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$63,017
• − Property taxes: −$20,135
• − Insurance: −$5,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,520
• − Management: −$11,520
• − HOA: −$6,036
• − Depreciation: −$32,727
• Taxable loss: −$6,581
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,579
• After-tax cash flow: $12,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Commack Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3608130
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $117,583
• Composite: 69.52/100
• National rank: #306
• State rank: #61 of 590 in NY

Livability — Commack

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #5296

Category grades

Amenities D Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Commack, NY
• City population: 58,941
• Population (ZIP): 29,050

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -795.52%
• Current HPI: 262.3806
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $1,125,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $680,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-31 Sold (MLS) $680,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-31 Sold (MLS) $680,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-18 Listed $719,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-18 Listed $719,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $700,000 Public Records
• 2015-06-22 Sold (MLS) $700,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-22 Sold (MLS) $700,000 MLSLI
• 2015-05-22 Pending — MLSLI
• 2015-03-12 Price Changed $709,000 MLSLI
• 2014-12-05 Listed $729,999 MLSLI
• 2014-12-05 Listed $709,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $854,000 Public Records
• 2003-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $718,500 Public Records
• 1999-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $498,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $337,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $20,135 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.