The McGinnis Plan · Owens Cross Roads, AL 35763

$324,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,372 sqft · SingleFamily · 134 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

Key facts

• Access to the yard
• Walk-in closets
• Wide entry

Tags

• WIDE ENTRY
• TRADITIONAL DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN AND FAMILY ROOM
• ACCESS TO THE YARD
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

🏗️ New construction. The $324,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $401,557.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $325k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-957 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 4.4% in Owens Cross Roads — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#65 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Madison County (rural): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #19 of 129 in AL (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Madison County Elementary School (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #331 of 627 statewide, top 57%, 412 students, 59% FRL); Madison County High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #39 of 305 statewide, top 13%, 483 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 29% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 479 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,115 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.22%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $401,557
• List price: $324,900
• Delta: -19.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 Ada Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,305 (-3%)	0mo	$455,000	$197	79
119 Ada Dr SE	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,476 (+4%)	11mo	$489,900	$198	72
3018 Crystal Creek Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,413 (+2%)	11mo	$437,000	$181	69
3002 Watchhill Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,408 (+2%)	12mo	$389,000	$162	68
2413 Habersham Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,557 (+8%)	2mo	$403,000	$158	62
106 Simmons Dr	0.41mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,462 (+4%)	6mo	$535,000	$217	61
136 SE Catherine Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,370 (-0%)	11mo	$459,000	$194	59
3014 Crystal Creek Dr	0.34mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,718 (+15%)	1mo	$399,000	$147	52
3025 Crystal Creek Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,718 (+15%)	10mo	$485,000	$178	47
133 Plainview Dr SE	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,249 (-5%)	9mo	$340,000	$151	46
150 Ada Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,059 (-13%)	7mo	$369,900	$180	44
2508 Caldwell Park Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,194 (-8%)	8mo	$400,000	$182	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-124,740
• Equity at exit: $59,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-181,764
• Equity at exit: $34,719

Cash invested: $112,436 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $347,358 ($142/sqft)
• Median days on market: 29 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +19.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 35763

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 479
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,301 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,106
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$502 /mo · $6,023/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-957

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,513

Max offer price $263,054

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-680	-5% $-818	+0% $-957	+5% $-1,096	+10% $-1,235
Rent	-10% $-1,139	-5% $-1,048	+0% $-957	+5% $-866	+10% $-775
Rate	-1.0pp $-755	-0.5pp $-855	base $-957	+0.5pp $-1,061	+1.0pp $-1,167

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,389
• Closing costs: $12,047
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Simmons Dr SE Owens Cross Roads, AL	3.0	2.0	2000	$1,800	$0.90	5d	1	0.39mi
125 Camp Ground Rd Brownsboro, AL	4.0	2.0	2558	$2,500	$0.98	109d	1	0.52mi
3023 Peevey Creek Ln Owens Cross Roads, AL	3.0	2.0	1903	$2,400	$1.26	119d	1	1.24mi
3029 Peevey Creek Ln Owens Cross Roads, AL	4.0	2.5	1990	$2,200	$1.11	6d	1	1.24mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $324,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric serviceNatural gasCentral air (cooling)
• Home design: Single-family plan (The McGinnis)
• Exterior features: Located on Miller Ln, Owens Cross Roads, AL

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Natural gas, electric, and heat pumpCooling: Central air
• Interior features: Plan: The McGinnis (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-25
   days on market $324,900 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-08-24
   days on market $324,900 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-08-23
   days on market $324,900 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-08-22
   days on market $324,900 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-08-21
   days on market $324,900 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-08-20
   days on market $324,900 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-08-19
   days on market $324,900 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-08-17
   days on market $324,900 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-08-16
   days on market $324,900 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-08-15
    days on market $324,900 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-08-15
    days on market $324,900 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-08-13
    days on market $324,900 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-08-12
    days on market $324,900 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-08-11
    days on market $324,900 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-08-10
    days on market $324,900 Active 119 DOM
16. 2026-08-09
    days on market $324,900 Active 118 DOM
17. 2026-08-08
    days on market $324,900 Active 117 DOM
18. 2026-08-07
    days on market $324,900 Active 116 DOM
19. 2026-08-06
    days on market $324,900 Active 115 DOM
20. 2026-08-05
    days on market $324,900 Active 114 DOM
21. 2026-08-04
    days on market $324,900 Active 113 DOM
22. 2026-07-31
    days on market $324,900 Active 109 DOM
23. 2026-07-29
    days on market $324,900 Active 107 DOM
24. 2026-07-27
    days on market $324,900 Active 105 DOM
25. 2026-07-25
    days on market $324,900 Active 103 DOM
26. 2026-07-23
    days on market $324,900 Active 101 DOM
27. 2026-07-22
    days on market $324,900 Active 100 DOM
28. 2026-07-21
    days on market $324,900 Active 99 DOM
29. 2026-07-18
    days on market $324,900 Active 96 DOM
30. 2026-07-16
    days on market $324,900 Active 94 DOM
31. 2026-07-16
    days on market $324,900 Active 93 DOM
32. 2026-07-14
    days on market $324,900 Active 92 DOM
33. 2026-07-14
    days on market $324,900 Active 91 DOM
34. 2026-07-12
    days on market $324,900 Active 90 DOM
35. 2026-07-10
    days on market $324,900 Active 88 DOM
36. 2026-07-10
    days on market $324,900 Active 87 DOM
37. 2026-07-08
    days on market $324,900 Active 86 DOM
38. 2026-07-07
    days on market $324,900 Active 85 DOM
39. 2026-07-06
    days on market $324,900 Active 84 DOM
40. 2026-07-05
    days on market $324,900 Active 83 DOM
41. 2026-07-04
    days on market $324,900 Active 82 DOM
42. 2026-07-03
    days on market $324,900 Active 81 DOM
43. 2026-07-02
    days on market $324,900 Active 80 DOM
44. 2026-07-01
    days on market $324,900 Active 79 DOM
45. 2026-06-30
    days on market $324,900 Active 78 DOM
46. 2026-06-29
    days on market $324,900 Active 77 DOM
47. 2026-06-28
    days on market $324,900 Active 76 DOM
48. 2026-06-28
    days on market $324,900 Active 75 DOM
49. 2026-06-27
    days on market $324,900 Active 74 DOM
50. 2026-06-25
    days on market $324,900 Active 72 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,493
• − Property taxes: −$6,023
• − Insurance: −$2,008
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,209
• − Management: −$2,209
• − Depreciation: −$11,682
• Taxable loss: −$19,011
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,563
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,923/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The McGinnis Plan is a well-maintained two-story home with good curb appeal and interior condition. Minor updates to the exterior, interior, and systems can further enhance its value and appeal to potential buyers and tenants.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to a broader market. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Madison County Elementary School F AL #331/627 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 High Madison County High School F AL #39/305 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 0102220
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,058
• Composite: 37.15/100
• National rank: #4483
• State rank: #19 of 129 in AL

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Owens Cross Roads

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #65
• US rank: #9303

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Madison County · 392,086 people
• City population: 19,819
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• Population (ZIP): 19,819
• Household income: $123,497
• Rent vs Own: 7.5% rent · 92.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,086 people
• By 2030: 409,788 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 440,557 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 460,990 · +17.6%
• By 2075: 502,872 · +28.3%
• By 2100: 513,623 · +31.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 44.7% · R 53.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.0pp toward D · 2008: -14.9pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+8.0 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+18.7 2008: R+14.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.43%
• Current HPI: 281.0561
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $324,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric serviceNatural gasCentral air (cooling)
• Home design: Single-family plan (The McGinnis)
• Exterior features: Located on Miller Ln, Owens Cross Roads, AL

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Natural gas, electric, and heat pumpCooling: Central air
• Interior features: Plan: The McGinnis (new construction plan)