411 Rollingwood Rd · Hudson, TX 75904

$89,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1998 0.46 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The property belongs to the Heir of the Estate of Steven Hively

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 1998
• Listed 52 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential mobile home
• Exterior features: Located in Rollingwood Subdivision

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $429 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 3.0% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#791 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hudson ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #85 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.47%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $12,763
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $46,256
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75904

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,254 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $626/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $710

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $480	-5% $455	+0% $429	+5% $404	+10% $379
Rent	-10% $330	-5% $380	+0% $429	+5% $479	+10% $528
Rate	-1.0pp $475	-0.5pp $452	base $429	+0.5pp $406	+1.0pp $382

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
861 Mount Carmel Rd Lufkin, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,045	$0.86	44d	4	0.48mi
3011 Ted Trout Dr Lot 11 Lufkin, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,095	$0.90	44d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $89,900 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $97,500 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,500 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $97,500 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $97,500 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $97,500 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,500 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,500 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,500 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $97,500 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-01-22
    listed $97,500 Active 63-char remark
18. 2011-09-27
    soldstatus
19. 1968-08-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $626 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,645 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,019/yr (+$85/mo · 162.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$626
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,204
• − Management: −$1,204
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $3,911
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$939
• After-tax cash flow: $4,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hudson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823790
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,047
• Composite: 49.4/100
• National rank: #2012
• State rank: #85 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #791
• US rank: #14441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hudson, TX
• County: Angelina County · 62,696 people
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,462
• Household income: $60,205
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1159.0

Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.71%
• Current HPI: 213.4236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $89,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $97,500 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2011-09-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1968-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $626 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.