510 Wales Ct · Lehman, PA 18324

$189,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,225 sqft · Condo public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1986 $225/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Contemporary 3-bedroom, 2 full-bath townhome located inside the gates of Saw Creek Estates in Bushkill, within The Falls community. Offering approximately 1,425 square feet across three levels, this home provides a functional layout with comfortable living space and modern updates. The main living area features a wood-burning fireplace and sliding glass doors leading to the rear screened porch, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor flow. The updated kitchen showcases quartz countertops, refreshed cabinetry, new flooring, and updated paint throughout. Central air conditioning ensures year-round comfort, and a recently replaced roof adds additional value. Residents of The Falls enjoy access to an outdoor pool, kiddie pool, hot tub, and half tennis/half basketball court. The community provides convenient access to all Pocono Mountain attractions, including skiing at Camelback, Kalahari water park, Bushkill Falls, and over 70,000 acres within the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area. A great opportunity for year-round living, vacation use, or investment.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Sliding glass doors
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• REAR SCREENED PORCH
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• REFRESHED CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $178k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $189k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $177,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.45%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $43,342
• Equity at exit: $90,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $126,872
• Equity at exit: $143,728

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18324

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,432/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$225
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,896

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
272 Stafford Dr Bushkill, PA	3.0	2.0	1218	$2,200	$1.81	1d	1	0.53mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $225 · $2,700/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-18
   price $189,000 1070-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

   Contemporary 3-bedroom, 2 full-bath townhome located inside the gates of Saw Creek Estates in Bushkill, within The Falls community. Offering approximately 1,425 square feet across three levels, this home provides a functional layout with comfortable living space and modern updates. The main living area features a wood-burning fireplace and sliding glass doors leading to the rear screened porch, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor flow. The updated kitchen showcases quartz countertops, refreshed cabinetry, new flooring, and updated paint throughout. Central air conditioning ensures year-round comfort, and a recently replaced roof adds additional value. Residents of The Falls enjoy access to an outdoor pool, kiddie pool, hot tub, and half tennis/half basketball court. The community provides convenient access to all Pocono Mountain attractions, including skiing at Camelback, Kalahari water park, Bushkill Falls, and over 70,000 acres within the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area. A great opportunity for year-round living, vacation use, or investment.

2. 2026-04-26
   price $199,000 1070-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

   Contemporary 3-bedroom, 2 full-bath townhome located inside the gates of Saw Creek Estates in Bushkill, within The Falls community. Offering approximately 1,425 square feet across three levels, this home provides a functional layout with comfortable living space and modern updates. The main living area features a wood-burning fireplace and sliding glass doors leading to the rear screened porch, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor flow. The updated kitchen showcases quartz countertops, refreshed cabinetry, new flooring, and updated paint throughout. Central air conditioning ensures year-round comfort, and a recently replaced roof adds additional value. Residents of The Falls enjoy access to an outdoor pool, kiddie pool, hot tub, and half tennis/half basketball court. The community provides convenient access to all Pocono Mountain attractions, including skiing at Camelback, Kalahari water park, Bushkill Falls, and over 70,000 acres within the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area. A great opportunity for year-round living, vacation use, or investment.

3. 2026-04-15
   price $209,000 1070-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

   Contemporary 3-bedroom, 2 full-bath townhome located inside the gates of Saw Creek Estates in Bushkill, within The Falls community. Offering approximately 1,425 square feet across three levels, this home provides a functional layout with comfortable living space and modern updates. The main living area features a wood-burning fireplace and sliding glass doors leading to the rear screened porch, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor flow. The updated kitchen showcases quartz countertops, refreshed cabinetry, new flooring, and updated paint throughout. Central air conditioning ensures year-round comfort, and a recently replaced roof adds additional value. Residents of The Falls enjoy access to an outdoor pool, kiddie pool, hot tub, and half tennis/half basketball court. The community provides convenient access to all Pocono Mountain attractions, including skiing at Camelback, Kalahari water park, Bushkill Falls, and over 70,000 acres within the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area. A great opportunity for year-round living, vacation use, or investment.

4. 2026-04-02
   price $224,000 1070-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

   Contemporary 3-bedroom, 2 full-bath townhome located inside the gates of Saw Creek Estates in Bushkill, within The Falls community. Offering approximately 1,425 square feet across three levels, this home provides a functional layout with comfortable living space and modern updates. The main living area features a wood-burning fireplace and sliding glass doors leading to the rear screened porch, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor flow. The updated kitchen showcases quartz countertops, refreshed cabinetry, new flooring, and updated paint throughout. Central air conditioning ensures year-round comfort, and a recently replaced roof adds additional value. Residents of The Falls enjoy access to an outdoor pool, kiddie pool, hot tub, and half tennis/half basketball court. The community provides convenient access to all Pocono Mountain attractions, including skiing at Camelback, Kalahari water park, Bushkill Falls, and over 70,000 acres within the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area. A great opportunity for year-round living, vacation use, or investment.

5. 2026-03-09
   historical
6. 2026-03-02
   listed $229,000 Active 1070-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

   Contemporary 3-bedroom, 2 full-bath townhome located inside the gates of Saw Creek Estates in Bushkill, within The Falls community. Offering approximately 1,425 square feet across three levels, this home provides a functional layout with comfortable living space and modern updates. The main living area features a wood-burning fireplace and sliding glass doors leading to the rear screened porch, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor flow. The updated kitchen showcases quartz countertops, refreshed cabinetry, new flooring, and updated paint throughout. Central air conditioning ensures year-round comfort, and a recently replaced roof adds additional value. Residents of The Falls enjoy access to an outdoor pool, kiddie pool, hot tub, and half tennis/half basketball court. The community provides convenient access to all Pocono Mountain attractions, including skiing at Camelback, Kalahari water park, Bushkill Falls, and over 70,000 acres within the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area. A great opportunity for year-round living, vacation use, or investment.

7. 2026-03-02
   listed $229,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

   Contemporary 3-bedroom, 2 full-bath townhome located inside the gates of Saw Creek Estates in Bushkill, within The Falls community. Offering approximately 1,425 square feet across three levels, this home provides a functional layout with comfortable living space and modern updates. The main living area features a wood-burning fireplace and sliding glass doors leading to the rear screened porch, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor flow. The updated kitchen showcases quartz countertops, refreshed cabinetry, new flooring, and updated paint throughout. Central air conditioning ensures year-round comfort, and a recently replaced roof adds additional value. Residents of The Falls enjoy access to an outdoor pool, kiddie pool, hot tub, and half tennis/half basketball court. The community provides convenient access to all Pocono Mountain attractions, including skiing at Camelback, Kalahari water park, Bushkill Falls, and over 70,000 acres within the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area. A great opportunity for year-round living, vacation use, or investment.

8. 2003-08-18
   soldstatus $89,900
9. 2003-08-01
   soldstatus $89,900
10. 2002-10-08
    listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,432 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,709 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$277/yr (+$23/mo · 11.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,432
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − HOA: −$2,700
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $14
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3
• After-tax cash flow: $2,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lehman

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saw Creek, PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,591

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Estonian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.51%
• Current HPI: 243.6754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+110.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $189,000 PMAR
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $199,000 PMAR
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $209,000 PMAR
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $224,000 PMAR
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $229,000 PMAR
• 2026-03-02 Listed $229,000 GLVRMLS
• 2003-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 2003-08-01 Sold (MLS) $89,900 PMAR
• 2002-10-08 Listed $89,900 PMAR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,432 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.