507 Forest Hill St · Canyon Lake, TX
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 106°F)
- 5 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 73.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Cash flow +6.6/30.0
- Schools +5.0/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.4/5.0
- Appreciation +2.5/10.0
- Rent growth +2.2/5.0
- 1% rule +1.7/10.0
- DSCR +0.9/10.0
- Manufactured-home adj. -3.3
$214,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Welcome to Canyon Lake Home Estates, where space, style, and opportunity come together in this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering nearly 1,900 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. At the heart of the home, a cozy fireplace creates a warm and inviting focal point-perfect for keeping winters toasty while adding charm to the central living area. The open-concept layout flows effortlessly between the living, dining, and kitchen spaces, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining, while the bedrooms are tucked away to provide comfort and privacy.
Key facts
- Community pool
- Cozy fireplace
- Open-concept layout
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $214k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-351 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (23.7% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (33.3% below list).
- Recommended offer: $143k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.5% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
- Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Startzville El (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 465 students, 68% FRL); Mt Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 51%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 808 students, 49% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 31% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1418 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.67% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.33%
- Cash-on-cash
- -7.02%
- DSCR
- 0.69
- GRM
- 12.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $298,291
- List price
- $214,000
- Delta
- -28.26%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1512 Deer Run Pass | 0.64mi | 3/2.0 | 1,790 (-5%) | 14mo | $320,000 | $179 | 51 |
| 125 Queen Anne Cir | 0.53mi | 3/2.0 | 1,568 (-16%) | 10mo | $305,000 | $195 | 42 |
| 4559 Chamberlain | 0.86mi | 3/2.0 | 1,568 (-16%) | 10mo | $150,000 | $96 | 32 |
| 144 Deer Run | 1.00mi | 3/2.0 | 1,577 (-16%) | 12mo | $259,000 | $164 | 30 |
| 340 Sir Winston Dr | 0.80mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 2,032 (+8%) | 21mo | $289,000 | $142 | 29 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -31.9%
- Equity multiple
- -0.02×
- Total profit
- $-61,181
- Equity at exit
- $31,908
- IRR
- -57.4%
- Equity multiple
- -0.64×
- Total profit
- $-98,128
- Equity at exit
- $18,503
Cash invested: $59,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 4 active · 1 under contract
- Months of supply
- 24.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $229,900 ($135/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 235 d
- This list price
- 25% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +17.4% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 78133
- Home prices YoY
- -33.8%
- Rents YoY
- -1.2%
- Active inventory
- 1418
- Price-to-rent
- 12.5×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,428 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,122
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$268 /mo · $3,210/yr
- Insurance
- −$89
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent leased land?
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$300
- Net cashflow
- $-351
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-203 | -5% $-277 | +0% $-351 | +5% $-425 | +10% $-499 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-464 | -5% $-407 | +0% $-351 | +5% $-294 | +10% $-238 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-243 | -0.5pp $-296 | base $-351 | +0.5pp $-406 | +1.0pp $-463 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $53,500
- Closing costs
- $6,420
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 25 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 560 Wickford Way Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1372 | $1,450 | $1.06 | 88d | 1 | 0.19mi |
| 507 Scenic Run Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1276 | $1,650 | $1.29 | 184d | 1 | 0.28mi |
| 101 Cielo Vis Canyon Lake, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2112 | $2,400 | $1.14 | 155d | 1 | 0.34mi |
| 532 Grandview Bnd Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1344 | $1,295 | $0.96 | 31d | 1 | 0.37mi |
| 532 Grandview Bnd Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1344 | $1,295 | $0.96 | 10d | 1 | 0.37mi |
| 252 Sir Winston Dr Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1288 | $1,495 | $1.16 | 184d | 1 | 0.59mi |
| 462 Flatrock Dr Canyon Lake, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2200 | $1,200 | $0.55 | 85d | 1 | 0.61mi |
| 1015 Twin Deer Ln Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1470 | $1,895 | $1.29 | 119d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 1015 Twin Deer Ln Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1470 | $1,995 | $1.36 | 184d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 634 Flatrock Dr Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1250 | $2,400 | $1.92 | 184d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 446 W Overlook Dr Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1392 | $1,825 | $1.31 | 184d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 963 Deer Run Pass Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1470 | $1,750 | $1.19 | 88d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 731 Hillside Loop Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1276 | $1,475 | $1.16 | 3d | 1 | 0.94mi |
| 104 Canteen Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1303 | $1,900 | $1.46 | 51d | 1 | 0.94mi |
| 469 W Clark St Canyon Lake, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1500 | $1,700 | $1.13 | 88d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 104 Canteen Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1303 | $1,900 | $1.46 | 10d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 120 Town View Ln Unit A Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1675 | $1,750 | $1.04 | 55d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 710 Caballo Trl Canyon Lake, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2332 | $2,995 | $1.28 | 10d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 711 La Cresta Dr Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1256 | $1,395 | $1.11 | 2d | 1 | 1.21mi |
| 711 La Cresta Dr Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1256 | $1,395 | $1.11 | 10d | 1 | 1.21mi |
| 1204 Lakeside Dr W Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1662 | $1,780 | $1.07 | 69d | 1 | 1.24mi |
| 705 Firefly Dr Unit 1365728P Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1819 | $4,350 | $2.39 | 7d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 1288 Canyon Springs Dr Unit 1351234P Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1550 | $4,464 | $2.88 | 2d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 924 Scenic Hills Dr Canyon Lake, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1240 | $1,650 | $1.33 | 55d | 1 | 1.44mi |
| 2488 Waterfront Park Dr Canyon Lake, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2134 | $3,250 | $1.52 | 10d | 1 | 1.45mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Financial info
- Down payment assistance not indicated
- HOA & community
- Voluntary HOASubdivision legal name: CANYON LAKE MH EST 1
Exterior
- Parking
- Parking details not provided
- Utilities
- Electric service: CPS EnergySeptic system
- Home design
- Pre-owned homeSubdivision: Canyon Lake Mobile Home
- Construction
- Built approximately 41 years agoBuilder: Kaufman & BroadComposition roofOther foundation (see remarks)
- Exterior features
- Siding exteriorPool in communityPark/playground in communityRecent rehab
Interior
- Kitchen
- Island kitchenStove/RangeDishwasher
- Bedrooms
- Primary bedroom 19 x 12 with walk-in closet, ceiling fan and attached full bathSecond bedroom 11 x 11Third bedroom 11 x 11
- Flooring
- Vinyl flooring
- Bathrooms
- Two full bathroomsPrimary bathroom 12 x 8 with shower onlySecondary bathroom (Bath 2)
- Heating & cooling
- Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
- Interior features
- Ceiling fans throughoutTwo living areas with a combined living/dining layoutKitchen with islandUtility room located insideAll window coverings remainDisposal
- Laundry & utility
- Washer and dryer connections insideUtility room inside
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-11-08days on market $214,000 Active 160 DOM
-
2026-11-07days on market $214,000 Active 159 DOM
-
2026-11-06days on market $214,000 Active 158 DOM
-
2026-11-05days on market $214,000 Active 157 DOM
-
2026-11-04days on market $214,000 Active 156 DOM
-
2026-11-02days on market $214,000 Active 154 DOM
-
2026-11-01days on market $214,000 Active 153 DOM
-
2026-10-31days on market $214,000 Active 152 DOM
-
2026-10-30days on market $214,000 Active 151 DOM
-
2026-10-29days on market $214,000 Active 150 DOM
-
2026-10-28days on market $214,000 Active 149 DOM
-
2026-10-27days on market $214,000 Active 148 DOM
-
2026-10-26days on market $214,000 Active 147 DOM
-
2026-10-26days on market $214,000 Active 146 DOM
-
2026-10-24days on market $214,000 Active 145 DOM
-
2026-10-23days on market $214,000 Active 144 DOM
-
2026-10-22days on market $214,000 Active 143 DOM
-
2026-10-21days on market $214,000 Active 142 DOM
-
2026-10-20days on market $214,000 Active 141 DOM
-
2026-10-19days on market $214,000 Active 140 DOM
-
2026-10-18days on market $214,000 Active 139 DOM
-
2026-10-17days on market $214,000 Active 138 DOM
-
2026-10-16days on market $214,000 Active 137 DOM
-
2026-10-15days on market $214,000 Active 136 DOM
-
2026-10-14days on market $214,000 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-10-13days on market $214,000 Active 134 DOM
-
2026-10-12days on market $214,000 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-10-11days on market $214,000 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-10-10days on market $214,000 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-10-09days on market $214,000 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-10-08days on market $214,000 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-10-07days on market $214,000 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-10-06days on market $214,000 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-10-05days on market $214,000 Active 126 DOM
-
2026-10-04days on market $214,000 Active 125 DOM
-
2026-10-04days on market $214,000 Active 124 DOM
-
2026-10-02days on market $214,000 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-10-01days on market $214,000 Active 122 DOM
-
2026-09-30days on market $214,000 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-09-29statusdays on market $214,000 Active 120 DOM
-
2026-09-28days on market $214,000 Price Change 119 DOM
-
2026-09-27days on market $214,000 Price Change 118 DOM
-
2026-09-25days on market $214,000 Price Change 116 DOM
-
2026-09-24days on market $214,000 Price Change 115 DOM
-
2026-09-23days on market $214,000 Price Change 114 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $214,000 Price Change 113 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $214,000 Price Change 112 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $214,000 Price Change 111 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $214,000 Price Change 110 DOM
-
2026-09-18pricestatusdays on market $214,000 Price Change 109 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $17,136
- − Mortgage interest
- −$11,987
- − Property taxes
- −$3,210
- − Insurance
- −$1,070
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,371
- − Management
- −$1,371
- − Depreciation
- −$6,225
- Taxable loss
- −$8,098
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,944
- After-tax cash flow
- $-2,266/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 22 photos
This beautifully updated home in Canyon Lake Home Estates is move-in ready with fresh paint, updated fixtures, and a well-maintained yard. It offers a cozy fireplace, open-concept layout, and quality finishes throughout.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
- Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Well-maintained yard and landscaping improve curb appeal ↑
- Both Add a small garden or flower bed — Enhances curb appeal and adds aesthetic value ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Comal ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4814730
- Math proficiency
- 57% ▼ -9.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 59% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $74,792
- Composite
- 51.79/100
- National rank
- #1671
- State rank
- #58 of 826 in TX
Livability — Canyon Lake
- Score
- 67/100
- State rank
- #534
- US rank
- #10441
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Canyon Lake, TX
- County
- Comal County · 175,637 people
- City population
- 42,159
- Metro
- San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 21,959
- Household income
- $83,853
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 14% of renters
Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 175,637 people
- By 2030
- 199,911 · +13.8%
- By 2040
- 249,436 · +42.0%
- By 2050
- 299,430 · +70.5%
- By 2075
- 423,857 · +141.3%
- By 2100
- 512,048 · +191.5%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (74%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 15%
- Languages at home
- 91% English-only · Spanish 7%
Political lean MEDSL · Comal
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -111.36%
- Current HPI
- 218.4633
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -1.20%
- Metro
- San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
||
| Technology | 5 | $198B |
|
||
| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
|
||
| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
|
||
| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
|
||
Price history
-1.4% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-07-03 Price Changed $215,000 LERA
- 2026-05-18 Listed $218,000 LERA
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…