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507 Forest Hill St
D- Composite 37.94
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +6.6/30.0
  • Schools +5.0/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.4/5.0
  • Appreciation +2.5/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.2/5.0
  • 1% rule +1.7/10.0
  • DSCR +0.9/10.0
  • Manufactured-home adj. -3.3

$214,000

507 Forest Hill St · Canyon Lake, TX 78133
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,876 sqft · Manufactured · 160 Days on market
Manufactured home Built 1985 Good condition 7,405 sqft lot $114/sqft · 28% below area Est $298k · 28% under ↓ 1% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to Canyon Lake Home Estates, where space, style, and opportunity come together in this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering nearly 1,900 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. At the heart of the home, a cozy fireplace creates a warm and inviting focal point-perfect for keeping winters toasty while adding charm to the central living area. The open-concept layout flows effortlessly between the living, dining, and kitchen spaces, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining, while the bedrooms are tucked away to provide comfort and privacy.

Key facts

  • Community pool
  • Cozy fireplace
  • Open-concept layout

Tags

COZY FIREPLACEOPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUTCOMMUNITY POOLCANYON LAKE RECREATIONSUCCESSFUL SHORT-TERM RENTAL

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $214k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-351 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (23.7% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (33.3% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $143k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.5% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Startzville El (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 465 students, 68% FRL); Mt Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 51%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 808 students, 49% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 31% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1418 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $142,803 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.67% ✗
Cap rate
4.33%
Cash-on-cash
-7.02%
DSCR
0.69
GRM
12.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$298,291
List price
$214,000
Delta
-28.26%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
1512 Deer Run Pass 0.64mi 3/2.0 1,790 (-5%) 14mo $320,000 $179 51
125 Queen Anne Cir 0.53mi 3/2.0 1,568 (-16%) 10mo $305,000 $195 42
4559 Chamberlain 0.86mi 3/2.0 1,568 (-16%) 10mo $150,000 $96 32
144 Deer Run 1.00mi 3/2.0 1,577 (-16%) 12mo $259,000 $164 30
340 Sir Winston Dr 0.80mi 4/2.0 (+1) 2,032 (+8%) 21mo $289,000 $142 29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-31.9%
Equity multiple
-0.02×
Total profit
$-61,181
Equity at exit
$31,908
10-year hold
IRR
-57.4%
Equity multiple
-0.64×
Total profit
$-98,128
Equity at exit
$18,503

Cash invested: $59,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
4 active · 1 under contract
Months of supply
24.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$229,900 ($135/sqft)
Median days on market
235 d
This list price
25% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+17.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78133

Home prices YoY
-33.8%
Rents YoY
-1.2%
Active inventory
1418
Price-to-rent
12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,428 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,122
Tax est. 1.5%
−$268 /mo · $3,210/yr
Insurance
−$89
HOA
−$0
Lot rent leased land?
−$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
−$300
Net cashflow
$-351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,872
Max offer price $163,244
Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-203 -5% $-277 +0% $-351 +5% $-425 +10% $-499
Rent -10% $-464 -5% $-407 +0% $-351 +5% $-294 +10% $-238
Rate -1.0pp $-243 -0.5pp $-296 base $-351 +0.5pp $-406 +1.0pp $-463

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$53,500
Closing costs
$6,420
Reserves months
—
Total cash needed
—

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 25 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
560 Wickford Way Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1372 $1,450 $1.06 88d 1 0.19mi
507 Scenic Run Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1276 $1,650 $1.29 184d 1 0.28mi
101 Cielo Vis Canyon Lake, TX 4.0 3.0 2112 $2,400 $1.14 155d 1 0.34mi
532 Grandview Bnd Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1344 $1,295 $0.96 31d 1 0.37mi
532 Grandview Bnd Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1344 $1,295 $0.96 10d 1 0.37mi
252 Sir Winston Dr Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1288 $1,495 $1.16 184d 1 0.59mi
462 Flatrock Dr Canyon Lake, TX 4.0 3.0 2200 $1,200 $0.55 85d 1 0.61mi
1015 Twin Deer Ln Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1470 $1,895 $1.29 119d 1 0.62mi
1015 Twin Deer Ln Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1470 $1,995 $1.36 184d 1 0.62mi
634 Flatrock Dr Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1250 $2,400 $1.92 184d 1 0.69mi
446 W Overlook Dr Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1392 $1,825 $1.31 184d 1 0.82mi
963 Deer Run Pass Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1470 $1,750 $1.19 88d 1 0.82mi
731 Hillside Loop Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1276 $1,475 $1.16 3d 1 0.94mi
104 Canteen Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1303 $1,900 $1.46 51d 1 0.94mi
469 W Clark St Canyon Lake, TX 4.0 2.5 1500 $1,700 $1.13 88d 1 0.95mi
104 Canteen Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1303 $1,900 $1.46 10d 1 0.95mi
120 Town View Ln Unit A Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1675 $1,750 $1.04 55d 1 0.96mi
710 Caballo Trl Canyon Lake, TX 4.0 2.5 2332 $2,995 $1.28 10d 1 1.10mi
711 La Cresta Dr Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1256 $1,395 $1.11 2d 1 1.21mi
711 La Cresta Dr Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1256 $1,395 $1.11 10d 1 1.21mi
1204 Lakeside Dr W Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1662 $1,780 $1.07 69d 1 1.24mi
705 Firefly Dr Unit 1365728P Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1819 $4,350 $2.39 7d 1 1.29mi
1288 Canyon Springs Dr Unit 1351234P Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1550 $4,464 $2.88 2d 1 1.35mi
924 Scenic Hills Dr Canyon Lake, TX 3.0 2.0 1240 $1,650 $1.33 55d 1 1.44mi
2488 Waterfront Park Dr Canyon Lake, TX 4.0 3.0 2134 $3,250 $1.52 10d 1 1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info
Down payment assistance not indicated
HOA & community
Voluntary HOASubdivision legal name: CANYON LAKE MH EST 1

Exterior

Parking
Parking details not provided
Utilities
Electric service: CPS EnergySeptic system
Home design
Pre-owned homeSubdivision: Canyon Lake Mobile Home
Construction
Built approximately 41 years agoBuilder: Kaufman & BroadComposition roofOther foundation (see remarks)
Exterior features
Siding exteriorPool in communityPark/playground in communityRecent rehab

Interior

Kitchen
Island kitchenStove/RangeDishwasher
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom 19 x 12 with walk-in closet, ceiling fan and attached full bathSecond bedroom 11 x 11Third bedroom 11 x 11
Flooring
Vinyl flooring
Bathrooms
Two full bathroomsPrimary bathroom 12 x 8 with shower onlySecondary bathroom (Bath 2)
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
Interior features
Ceiling fans throughoutTwo living areas with a combined living/dining layoutKitchen with islandUtility room located insideAll window coverings remainDisposal
Laundry & utility
Washer and dryer connections insideUtility room inside

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-11-08
    days on market $214,000 Active 160 DOM
  2. 2026-11-07
    days on market $214,000 Active 159 DOM
  3. 2026-11-06
    days on market $214,000 Active 158 DOM
  4. 2026-11-05
    days on market $214,000 Active 157 DOM
  5. 2026-11-04
    days on market $214,000 Active 156 DOM
  6. 2026-11-02
    days on market $214,000 Active 154 DOM
  7. 2026-11-01
    days on market $214,000 Active 153 DOM
  8. 2026-10-31
    days on market $214,000 Active 152 DOM
  9. 2026-10-30
    days on market $214,000 Active 151 DOM
  10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $214,000 Active 150 DOM
  11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $214,000 Active 149 DOM
  12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $214,000 Active 148 DOM
  13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $214,000 Active 147 DOM
  14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $214,000 Active 146 DOM
  15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $214,000 Active 145 DOM
  16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $214,000 Active 144 DOM
  17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $214,000 Active 143 DOM
  18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $214,000 Active 142 DOM
  19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $214,000 Active 141 DOM
  20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $214,000 Active 140 DOM
  21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $214,000 Active 139 DOM
  22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $214,000 Active 138 DOM
  23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $214,000 Active 137 DOM
  24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $214,000 Active 136 DOM
  25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $214,000 Active 135 DOM
  26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $214,000 Active 134 DOM
  27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $214,000 Active 133 DOM
  28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $214,000 Active 132 DOM
  29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $214,000 Active 131 DOM
  30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $214,000 Active 130 DOM
  31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $214,000 Active 129 DOM
  32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $214,000 Active 128 DOM
  33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $214,000 Active 127 DOM
  34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $214,000 Active 126 DOM
  35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $214,000 Active 125 DOM
  36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $214,000 Active 124 DOM
  37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $214,000 Active 123 DOM
  38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $214,000 Active 122 DOM
  39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $214,000 Active 121 DOM
  40. 2026-09-29
    statusdays on market $214,000 Active 120 DOM
  41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $214,000 Price Change 119 DOM
  42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $214,000 Price Change 118 DOM
  43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $214,000 Price Change 116 DOM
  44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $214,000 Price Change 115 DOM
  45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $214,000 Price Change 114 DOM
  46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $214,000 Price Change 113 DOM
  47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $214,000 Price Change 112 DOM
  48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $214,000 Price Change 111 DOM
  49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $214,000 Price Change 110 DOM
  50. 2026-09-18
    pricestatusdays on market $214,000 Price Change 109 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$17,136
− Mortgage interest
−$11,987
− Property taxes
−$3,210
− Insurance
−$1,070
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,371
− Management
−$1,371
− Depreciation
−$6,225
Taxable loss
−$8,098
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,944
After-tax cash flow
$-2,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 22 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,380–$28,140 screening

This beautifully updated home in Canyon Lake Home Estates is move-in ready with fresh paint, updated fixtures, and a well-maintained yard. It offers a cozy fireplace, open-concept layout, and quality finishes throughout.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
  • Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Well-maintained yard and landscaping improve curb appeal ↑
  • Both Add a small garden or flower bed — Enhances curb appeal and adds aesthetic value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Startzville El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Mt Valley Middle C+ TX #281/1,662 Nat'l #2,873/14,009 High Canyon Lake H S D+ TX #482/1,632 Nat'l #5,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Comal ISD
NCES district ID
4814730
Math proficiency
57% ▼ -9.00%
Reading proficiency
59% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income
$74,792
Composite
51.79/100
National rank
#1671
State rank
#58 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Canyon Lake

Score
67/100
State rank
#534
US rank
#10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Canyon Lake, TX
County
Comal County · 175,637 people
City population
42,159
Metro
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP)
21,959
Household income
$83,853
Rent vs Own
15.2% rent · 84.8% own
Severe rent burden
14% of renters

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
175,637 people
By 2030
199,911 · +13.8%
By 2040
249,436 · +42.0%
By 2050
299,430 · +70.5%
By 2075
423,857 · +141.3%
By 2100
512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (74%)
Race & ethnicity
White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 15%
Languages at home
91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

2024 margin
Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
2008→2024 swing
+1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

Civics
—

Price history

-1.4% since first listed
2 events — show timeline
  • 2026-07-03 Price Changed $215,000 LERA
  • 2026-05-18 Listed $218,000 LERA

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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