1934 Arcadia Rd · Holiday, FL 34690

$44,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1967 Est $71k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

?? INVESTOR SPECIAL & acirc; & euro; & ldquo; HOLIDAY, FL ?? 1934 Arcadia Rd, Holiday, FL 34690 Price: $44,500 2BR / 1BA mobile home 720 Sq Ft Needs full renovation Great wholesale opportunity! No HOA & acirc; & euro; & ldquo; you own the land! Perfect for investors, flippers, landlords, or handyman buyers. Property being sold AS-IS. Cash buyers preferred. Message for details or showing.

Key facts

• Full renovation
• Sold as is
• No hoa

Tags

• FULL RENOVATION
• WHOLESALE OPPORTUNITY
• NO HOA
• YOU OWN THE LAND
• SOLD AS IS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No additional financial or community details provided
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: HOA or community fee details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Utility details not provided
• Home design: Built in 1967; Single-family property (specific stories and entry level not provided); Facing direction not provided
• Construction: 720 square feet of living area; Construction materials, roof, and foundation details not provided
• Exterior features: Located in the Dixie Groves Estates subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details not provided
• Bedrooms: Bedroom count not provided
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: Bathroom count not provided
• Heating & cooling: Heating and cooling details not provided
• Interior features: No interior feature details provided
• Laundry & utility: Laundry and utility details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $711 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.5% vs local median 4.5% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sunray Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,969 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 382 students, 92% FRL); Paul R. Smith Middle School (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Anclote High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,205 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $308 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,832 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.49%
• DSCR: 4.05
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $71,280
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1939 Dixie Ln	0.05mi	2/1.0	728 (+1%)	10mo	$70,000	$96	84
2453 Santiago Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0	660 (-8%)	2mo	$53,000	$80	59
5200 Darlington Rd	0.57mi	2/2.0	672 (-7%)	18mo	$86,600	$129	47
1702 Holiday Dr	0.67mi	2/1.5	624 (-13%)	3mo	$51,000	$82	42
1831 Melody Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	780 (+8%)	8mo	$79,000	$101	36
2045 Melody Dr	0.72mi	2/1.5	624 (-13%)	9mo	$61,500	$99	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $34,262
• Equity at exit: $6,635

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.89×
• Total profit: $73,397
• Equity at exit: $3,848

Cash invested: $12,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34690

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,315 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$233
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $910/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $711

Break-even live

Break-even rent $415

Max offer price $44,500

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $736	-5% $724	+0% $711	+5% $699	+10% $686
Rent	-10% $607	-5% $659	+0% $711	+5% $763	+10% $815
Rate	-1.0pp $734	-0.5pp $722	base $711	+0.5pp $700	+1.0pp $688

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,125
• Closing costs: $1,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5409 Oceanic Rd Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,225	$1.96	26d	1	0.40mi
5419 Oceanic Rd Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,200	$1.92	14d	1	0.41mi
2122 Ranchita Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	648	$1,399	$2.16	26d	1	0.44mi
5441 Oceanic Rd Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,100	$1.83	26d	1	0.46mi
2117 Calusa Trl Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,195	$1.69	0d	1	0.49mi
5633 Golden Nugget Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,175	$1.96	26d	1	0.69mi
5603 Cheyenne Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	525	$1,100	$2.10	26d	1	0.70mi
5709 Silver Spur Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	727	$1,095	$1.51	16d	1	0.76mi
5709 Silver Spur Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	727	$1,095	$1.51	1d	1	0.76mi
2133 Melody Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	510	$1,078	$2.11	16d	1	0.78mi
1525 Swordbill Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,090	$1.56	22d	1	0.80mi
1525 Swordbill Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,090	$1.56	1d	1	0.80mi
4318 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,200	$2.08	26d	1	0.84mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit G Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	26d	1	0.85mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	16d	1	0.85mi
2051 Pleasure Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	26d	1	0.92mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,404	$1.37	4d	13	1.14mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	1d	7	1.15mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $44,500 Under Contract 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,500 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,500 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,500 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,500 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,500 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $44,500 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $44,500 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $44,500 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    remarks 404-char remark
11. 2026-06-02
    listed $44,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $910 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $910 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,493
• − Property taxes: −$910
• − Insurance: −$222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,262
• − Management: −$1,262
• − Depreciation: −$1,295
• Taxable income: $8,336
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,001
• After-tax cash flow: $6,533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,498
• Household income: $49,401
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 625.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.40%
• Current HPI: 316.5846
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.49%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $44,500 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $910 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.