10435 Ladybug Cv · Ellenton, FL 34219

$277,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,365 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 282 Days on market

Built 2023 4,600 sqft lot Est $308k · 10% under $9/mo HOA ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ACCEPTING BACK UP OFFERS Welcome to your dream home in the idyllic Summerwoods Community. This 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 car garage homes features an open floor plan and high ceilings throughout. It is ideal for entertaining or relishing a quiet evening in. Enjoy cooking in the beautiful kitchen which features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a large island, and ample cabinetry, which is adorned with gorgeous hardware. Step out onto the screened in back patio and relax while gazing out onto the pond. Retreat to the convenience of the primary bedroom boasting a water view, walk in closet and a large, fresh, contemporary bathroom. No detail has been left out of this immaculately kept home, complete with a fenced in back yard, additional garage shelving, stunning landscaping and wood framed windows with plantation shutters. Take full advantage of the Florida sunshine with the community pool, splash pad, playground, walking trails and a dog park for your furry friends. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Walk in closet
• Granite countertops
• 4,600 sq ft lot

Tags

• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SCREENED IN BACK PATIO
• SERENE VIEWS OF THE POND
• WALK IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $277k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-560/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 10980% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.72%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $308,490
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10425 High Noon Trl	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+9%)	2mo	$305,000	$204	76
10714 High Noon Trl	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+9%)	5mo	$337,500	$226	70
10706 High Noon Trl	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+9%)	6mo	$328,000	$220	70
9942 Last Light Gln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+6%)	9mo	$335,000	$233	68
9422 Sandy Bluffs Cir	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,511 (+11%)	9mo	$352,708	$233	64
10941 High Noon Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,509 (+10%)	2mo	$295,000	$195	63
10962 High Noon Trl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,509 (+10%)	6mo	$318,000	$211	62
9216 Westernwoods Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+11%)	5mo	$350,000	$230	61
8724 Starry Night Ter	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+9%)	1mo	$344,900	$231	59
10659 Monarch Wood Gln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+10%)	3mo	$298,595	$199	55
9833 Zennia Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+12%)	0mo	$325,000	$212	55
10106 Zennia Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,549 (+14%)	8mo	$349,990	$226	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-55,321
• Equity at exit: $41,302

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-80,805
• Equity at exit: $23,950

Cash invested: $77,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,598 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,453
• Tax from tax record: −$522 /mo · $6,264/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$9
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,657

Max offer price $268,749

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $32	+0% $-47	+5% $-125	+10% $-204
Rent	-10% $-252	-5% $-149	+0% $-47	+5% $56	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $24	base $-47	+0.5pp $-118	+1.0pp $-192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,250
• Closing costs: $8,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10416 High Noon Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,400	$1.70	5d	1	0.16mi
10455 Wet Marsh Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	12d	1	0.27mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	5d	1	0.33mi
11230 82nd St E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,495	$1.42	17d	1	0.74mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,056	$1.30	3d	32	0.94mi
11454 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,575	$1.57	17d	1	0.96mi
11567 84th Street Cir E #105 Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,999	$1.41	5d	1	1.02mi
11880 Little River Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	25d	1	1.06mi
11523 84th Street Cir E #105 Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1588	$1,950	$1.23	5d	1	1.07mi
11522 84th Street Cir E #105 Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1588	$2,300	$1.45	25d	1	1.08mi
8544 Canyon Creek Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1822	$2,300	$1.26	13d	1	1.21mi
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	17d	1	1.21mi
8522 Canyon Creek Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1822	$2,000	$1.10	25d	1	1.22mi
8423 Canyon Creek Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1823	$2,400	$1.32	25d	1	1.32mi
9224 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1799	$2,290	$1.27	25d	1	1.41mi
9207 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,275	$1.37	25d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $9 · $108/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-05
   price $277,000
3. 2026-01-02
   status Active
4. 2025-12-20
   status Pending
5. 2025-11-18
   status Active
6. 2025-09-17
   status Pending
7. 2025-08-27
   status Active
8. 2025-08-13
   status Pending
9. 2025-07-15
   price $297,200
10. 2025-06-10
    price $317,000
11. 2025-05-27
    status Active
12. 2025-04-09
    status Pending
13. 2025-03-22
    historical $2,500
14. 2025-03-13
    price $340,700
15. 2025-02-14
    listed $2,500
16. 2025-01-16
    listed $370,000 Active
17. 2024-04-29
    soldstatus $355,000 Closed 1015-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1015 chars)

    ACCEPTING BACK UP OFFERS Welcome to your dream home in the idyllic Summerwoods Community. This 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 car garage homes features an open floor plan and high ceilings throughout. It is ideal for entertaining or relishing a quiet evening in. Enjoy cooking in the beautiful kitchen which features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a large island, and ample cabinetry, which is adorned with gorgeous hardware. Step out onto the screened in back patio and relax while gazing out onto the pond. Retreat to the convenience of the primary bedroom boasting a water view, walk in closet and a large, fresh, contemporary bathroom. No detail has been left out of this immaculately kept home, complete with a fenced in back yard, additional garage shelving, stunning landscaping and wood framed windows with plantation shutters. Take full advantage of the Florida sunshine with the community pool, splash pad, playground, walking trails and a dog park for your furry friends. Schedule your showing today!

18. 2024-02-27
    status Pending 1015-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1015 chars)

    ACCEPTING BACK UP OFFERS Welcome to your dream home in the idyllic Summerwoods Community. This 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 car garage homes features an open floor plan and high ceilings throughout. It is ideal for entertaining or relishing a quiet evening in. Enjoy cooking in the beautiful kitchen which features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a large island, and ample cabinetry, which is adorned with gorgeous hardware. Step out onto the screened in back patio and relax while gazing out onto the pond. Retreat to the convenience of the primary bedroom boasting a water view, walk in closet and a large, fresh, contemporary bathroom. No detail has been left out of this immaculately kept home, complete with a fenced in back yard, additional garage shelving, stunning landscaping and wood framed windows with plantation shutters. Take full advantage of the Florida sunshine with the community pool, splash pad, playground, walking trails and a dog park for your furry friends. Schedule your showing today!

19. 2024-02-15
    price $350,000 1015-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1015 chars)

    ACCEPTING BACK UP OFFERS Welcome to your dream home in the idyllic Summerwoods Community. This 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 car garage homes features an open floor plan and high ceilings throughout. It is ideal for entertaining or relishing a quiet evening in. Enjoy cooking in the beautiful kitchen which features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a large island, and ample cabinetry, which is adorned with gorgeous hardware. Step out onto the screened in back patio and relax while gazing out onto the pond. Retreat to the convenience of the primary bedroom boasting a water view, walk in closet and a large, fresh, contemporary bathroom. No detail has been left out of this immaculately kept home, complete with a fenced in back yard, additional garage shelving, stunning landscaping and wood framed windows with plantation shutters. Take full advantage of the Florida sunshine with the community pool, splash pad, playground, walking trails and a dog park for your furry friends. Schedule your showing today!

20. 2023-12-15
    listed $355,000 Active 1015-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1015 chars)

    ACCEPTING BACK UP OFFERS Welcome to your dream home in the idyllic Summerwoods Community. This 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 car garage homes features an open floor plan and high ceilings throughout. It is ideal for entertaining or relishing a quiet evening in. Enjoy cooking in the beautiful kitchen which features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a large island, and ample cabinetry, which is adorned with gorgeous hardware. Step out onto the screened in back patio and relax while gazing out onto the pond. Retreat to the convenience of the primary bedroom boasting a water view, walk in closet and a large, fresh, contemporary bathroom. No detail has been left out of this immaculately kept home, complete with a fenced in back yard, additional garage shelving, stunning landscaping and wood framed windows with plantation shutters. Take full advantage of the Florida sunshine with the community pool, splash pad, playground, walking trails and a dog park for your furry friends. Schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,264 · $522/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,264 · $522/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,516
• − Property taxes: −$6,264
• − Insurance: −$1,385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,494
• − Management: −$2,494
• − HOA: −$108
• − Depreciation: −$8,058
• Taxable loss: −$5,145
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,235
• After-tax cash flow: $674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-22.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $277,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $297,200 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $317,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-22 Rental Removed $2,500 STELLARMLS
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $340,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-14 Listed for Rent $2,500 STELLARMLS
• 2025-01-16 Listed $370,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-29 Sold (MLS) $355,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-15 Price Changed $350,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-15 Listed $355,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+56.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,264 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.