9013 Burr Dr · Lake Alfred, FL 33868

$180,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 684 sqft · Manufactured public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1969 0.99 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Mobile home located on a spacious lot in a quiet and private setting, surrounded by nature. The property features a front porch with roof and ample outdoor space, offering great potential for customization or future improvements. Suitable for both owner-occupants seeking space and privacy, as well as investors looking for value and upside potential. Convenient access to main roads and nearby amenities.

Key facts

• Ample outdoor space
• Front porch
• Convenient access

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• FRONT PORCH
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot just under 1 acre (approximately 0.99 acres); Lot dimensions about 101.2 x 433 feet
• Financial info: Homestead exemption applied
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: No specific parking information provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Double-wide; Single-story; Front faces west
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Built on a foundation consistent with manufactured/mobile home construction
• Exterior features: Balcony; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No central heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: No notable interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Outdoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Polk City Elementary School (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,437 of 2,144 statewide, top 68%, 606 students, 58% FRL); Auburndale Senior High School (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,716 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $180k implies a 934% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.07%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-10,325
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $15,084
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33868

• Home prices YoY: -9.3%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,756 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $856/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,380

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $180,000 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-02-05
    listed $180,000 Active
15. 1997-08-13
    soldstatus $17,400
16. 1993-08-10
    soldstatus $11,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $856 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,494 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$638/yr (+$53/mo · 74.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$856
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $625
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$150
• After-tax cash flow: $3,413/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 9,757
• Population (ZIP): 13,676

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 11% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.52%
• Current HPI: 325.6917
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1412.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $17,400 Public Records
• 1993-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $11,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $856 · +50.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.