15509 SE Mill Plain Blvd #10 · Vancouver, WA 98684

$65,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,169 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1970 $56/sqft · 36% below area Est $102k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This manufactured home is located in a well-established 55+ community with a fantastic location. The home features a comfortable living area with big windows, nice kitchen with updated appliances, two bedrooms, and two bathroom. Covered front deck area, your own yard space, a one-car carport, two shed/storage spaces. Space rent includes management, common areas, garbage, septic, water. Sale is subject to park approval. Buyer to verify all information to their satisfaction. Cash sale only.

Key facts

• Covered front deck
• One car carport
• Yard space

Tags

• COVERED FRONT DECK
• YARD SPACE
• ONE CAR CARPORT
• TWO SHED STORAGE SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly lot rent: $850
• HOA & community: Park name: Fran-Mar; Community services include sewer, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Shared septic; Electric service
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single-story (one level); No notable view
• Construction: Built in 1970; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Porch; Tool shed; Yard; Aluminum exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main level); Second bedroom (main level)
• Flooring: Wall-to-wall carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Laundry area; Wall-to-wall carpet; Double pane windows with vinyl frames; Accessible approach with ramp; One-level living; Walk-in shower; Hot water: electric
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.6% vs local median 2.7% in Vancouver — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#62 in WA, #1,133 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Evergreen School District (Clark) (urban): math 41% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #164 of 291 in WA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 299 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,547 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (1,361 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clark County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.98%
• DSCR: 4.07
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,187
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -36.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15509 SE Mill Plain Blvd #98	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-14%)	13mo	$130,000	$130	65
15411 SE Mill Plain Blvd Unit C-12	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,331 (+14%)	23mo	$119,000	$89	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $52,775
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.52×
• Total profit: $118,618
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98684

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,823 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $313/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $1,046

Break-even live

Break-even rent $499

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,083	-5% $1,065	+0% $1,046	+5% $1,028	+10% $1,009
Rent	-10% $902	-5% $974	+0% $1,046	+5% $1,118	+10% $1,190
Rate	-1.0pp $1,079	-0.5pp $1,063	base $1,046	+0.5pp $1,029	+1.0pp $1,012

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1000 SE 160th Ave Unit RR-336 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	906	$1,600	$1.77	17d	1	0.14mi
1000 SE 160th Ave Unit RR-342 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	906	$1,600	$1.77	24d	1	0.14mi
1000 SE 160th Ave Apt DD238 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	906	$1,600	$1.77	44d	1	0.14mi
1000 SE 160th Ave Unit C-015 Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0	860	$1,550	$1.80	44d	1	0.14mi
1000 SE 160th Ave Apt M104 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	906	$1,600	$1.77	8d	1	0.14mi
1000 SE 160th Ave Apt FF257 Vancouver, WA	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,950	$1.86	44d	1	0.14mi
1000 SE 160th Ave Apt N116 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	906	$1,600	$1.77	18d	1	0.14mi
1020 SE Park Crest Ave Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0	792	$1,300	$1.64	13d	1	0.19mi
510 SE 157th Ave #35 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,895	$1.79	24d	1	0.25mi
900 SE Park Crest Ave Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,730	$2.31	2d	9	0.37mi
14913 SE Mill Plain Blvd Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	939	$2,000	$2.13	3d	4	0.38mi
112 SE 158th Ave Vancouver, WA	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,995	$1.70	24d	1	0.46mi
14600 SE 7th Way Vancouver, WA	3.0	2.5	1476	$2,345	$1.59	44d	1	0.54mi
16410 SE 5th St Unit G-61 Vancouver, WA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,350	$1.93	20d	1	0.55mi
15501 NE 2nd St Vancouver, WA	3.0	2.0	1264	$2,750	$2.18	2d	1	0.56mi
1600 SE 168th Ave Vancouver, WA	3.0	1.5	1210	$2,350	$1.94	5d	1	0.67mi
301 SE 166th Ave Vancouver, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	883	$1,827	$2.07	8d	15	0.68mi
1707 SE 145th Ct Unit 1707 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,795	$1.77	24d	1	0.68mi
14616 SE 1st St Vancouver, WA	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,975	$1.65	44d	1	0.69mi
Chase LNDG Gresham, OR	3.0	2.5	1389	$2,200	$1.58	13d	3	0.72mi
621 SE 168th Ave Vancouver, WA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$1,649	$1.47	3d	9	0.73mi
621 SE 168th Ave Vancouver, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	869	$2,079	$2.39	15d	7	0.73mi
16801 SE 1st St Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,608	$1.68	24d	1	0.74mi
14111 SE 6th St Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.5	1201	$2,104	$1.75	24d	1	0.76mi
2404 SE 161st Ct Unit X182 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,495	$1.66	20d	1	0.78mi
16807 SE 19th St Vancouver, WA	1.0	1.0	850	$1,800	$2.12	3d	1	0.79mi
701 SE 139th Ave Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	806	$1,600	$1.99	3d	6	0.82mi
2610 SE 164th Ave Unit G12 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	1130	$2,265	$2.00	44d	1	0.84mi
905 SE 136th Ave Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0	945	$1,810	$1.92	3d	2	0.94mi
16900 SE 26th Dr Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	1043	$1,926	$1.85	2d	5	0.97mi
600 SE 177th Ave Vancouver, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	931	$2,030	$2.18	2d	20	0.97mi
16202 NE 8th St Unit B Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,150	$1.43	44d	1	0.99mi
17775 SE Mill Plain Blvd Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	732	$2,353	$3.21	5d	1	1.02mi
16506 SE 29th St Vancouver, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,962	$1.85	2d	13	1.03mi
812 SE 136th Ave Vancouver, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	931	$1,805	$1.94	3d	10	1.10mi
13601 SE 19th St Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	965	$2,224	$2.30	8d	6	1.10mi
13307 SE McGillivray Blvd Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	962	$1,895	$1.97	3d	1	1.13mi
13314 SE 19th St Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	899	$2,274	$2.53	3d	10	1.13mi
13213 SE 7th St Vancouver, WA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$1,500	$1.37	3d	2	1.18mi
3100 SE 168th Ave Vancouver, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1040	$2,205	$2.12	2d	14	1.18mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $65,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $65,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $65,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-05-11
    price $75,000 493-char remark
12. 2026-04-23
    listed $95,000 Active 493-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $313 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $637 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$324/yr (+$27/mo · 103.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$313
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,750
• − Management: −$1,750
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $12,206
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,929
• After-tax cash flow: $9,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Evergreen School District (Clark)
• NCES district ID: 5302700
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,418
• Composite: 42.53/100
• National rank: #6859
• State rank: #164 of 291 in WA

Livability — Vancouver

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #1133

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vancouver, WA
• County: Clark County · 513,189 people
• City population: 360,195
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 37,298
• Household income: $90,620
• Rent vs Own: 46.6% rent · 53.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1481.0

Population outlook (Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 529,610 people
• By 2030: 563,242 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 625,905 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 681,558 · +28.7%
• By 2075: 805,967 · +52.2%
• By 2100: 877,450 · +65.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Pacific Islander 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Clark

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.0) · D 52.1% · R 45.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.9pp no change · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 7.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.0 2020: D+5.1 2016: D+0.1 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -237.93%
• Current HPI: 290.416
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Property tax history

+21.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $313 · +66.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.