3 Newport Pl · Toms River, NJ 08753

$209,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1965 4,791 sqft lot $195/sqft · 13% below area Est $239k · 13% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to sought-after Holiday City Silverton--where comfort, convenience, and community come together! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers easy, low-maintenance living with original wood flooring flowing through the living room, dining area, and both bedrooms. The bright and functional kitchen provides ample cabinet space, making meal prep a breeze, while the spacious front sunroom is the perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind with a good book. Step outside your door and into a vibrant community offering social opportunities and that relaxed lifestyle everyone's looking for. Whether you're downsizing or just ready to enjoy life a little more, this home checks all the boxes. Come see why so many love calling Holiday City Silverton home!

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $636 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $209k).
• Recommended offer: $196k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 424 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $209k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.04%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,334
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: -12.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,767
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $39,202
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08753

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,586 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,454/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $636

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,782

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73 S Shore Dr Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	960	$2,975	$3.10	43d	1	1.06mi
824A Balmoral Ct Unit A Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,200	$2.24	19d	1	1.39mi
1415 Waters Edge Dr #1415 Toms River, NJ	3.0	3.0	1465	$3,000	$2.05	7d	1	1.42mi
1042C Aberdeen Dr Unit C Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,000	$2.04	3d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $209,000 Pending 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $209,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $209,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $209,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $209,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $209,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-05-15
    price $209,000 768-char remark

    Show marketing remark (768 chars)

    Welcome to sought-after Holiday City Silverton--where comfort, convenience, and community come together! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers easy, low-maintenance living with original wood flooring flowing through the living room, dining area, and both bedrooms. The bright and functional kitchen provides ample cabinet space, making meal prep a breeze, while the spacious front sunroom is the perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind with a good book. Step outside your door and into a vibrant community offering social opportunities and that relaxed lifestyle everyone's looking for. Whether you're downsizing or just ready to enjoy life a little more, this home checks all the boxes. Come see why so many love calling Holiday City Silverton home!

11. 2026-04-10
    listed $215,000 Active 768-char remark

    Show marketing remark (768 chars)

    Welcome to sought-after Holiday City Silverton--where comfort, convenience, and community come together! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers easy, low-maintenance living with original wood flooring flowing through the living room, dining area, and both bedrooms. The bright and functional kitchen provides ample cabinet space, making meal prep a breeze, while the spacious front sunroom is the perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind with a good book. Step outside your door and into a vibrant community offering social opportunities and that relaxed lifestyle everyone's looking for. Whether you're downsizing or just ready to enjoy life a little more, this home checks all the boxes. Come see why so many love calling Holiday City Silverton home!

12. 2006-05-05
    soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,454 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,829 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,375/yr (+$115/mo · 56.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,037
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$2,454
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,483
• − Management: −$2,483
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable income: $4,546
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,091
• After-tax cash flow: $6,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 65,448
• Household income: $105,224
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 828.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -527.36%
• Current HPI: 374.5075
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+67.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $209,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $215,000 MOMLS
• 2006-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,454 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.