8838 Mary Fleming Dr · Warrington, FL 32507

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,026 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 2011 3,484 sqft lot $180/sqft · 12% below area Est $209k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY MAY 23 NOON TILL 4PM! COME SEE THIS HOUSE Welcome to 8838 Mary Fleming Dr — a beautifully refreshed home that blends comfort, style, and peace of mind. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath property has been thoughtfully updated and is truly move-in ready. Enjoy the confidence of a brand-new roof (January 2026). Step inside to discover new vinyl flooring that flows throughout the main living areas, creating a clean, modern look. Each bedroom features plush new carpet, adding warmth and comfort where it matters most. Natural light fills the home, highlighting a functional layout designed for everyday living. Whether you're relaxing in the living space or hosting friends and family, this home offers an inviting atmosphere that feels instantly welcoming. Perfect for first-time buyers, downsizing, or investors, this property combines low-maintenance living with fresh updates—so you can spend more time enjoying your home and less time working on it. Don’t miss your opportunity to own a stylish, affordable home with major updates already completed.

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• New carpet
• Modern layout

Tags

• VINYL FLOORING
• NEW CARPET
• MODERN LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.3% in Warrington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#631 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 701 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.41%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,450
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -11.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8801 Camshire Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+11%)	4mo	$208,900	$183	66
8506 Gulf Beach Hwy	0.65mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,025 (-0%)	22mo	$260,000	$254	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-18,189
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,929
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32507

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 701
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,718 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $917/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,422

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $338	-5% $286	+0% $234	+5% $181	+10% $129
Rent	-10% $98	-5% $166	+0% $234	+5% $302	+10% $369
Rate	-1.0pp $327	-0.5pp $281	base $234	+0.5pp $186	+1.0pp $137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8727 Schooner Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,950	$1.52	24d	1	0.41mi
9692 Cobblebrook Dr Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,300	$1.50	24d	1	0.60mi
8527 San Juan Calzada Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	786	$1,150	$1.46	24d	1	0.63mi
2289 Dog Track Rd Unit b Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,850	$1.73	15d	1	0.67mi
9908 Starling Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1354	$2,000	$1.48	24d	1	0.71mi
8584 Alvarado Calzada Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,200	$1.34	24d	1	0.71mi
1076 Antigua Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,400	$1.30	22d	1	0.87mi
2018 Marquesas Ln Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,400	$1.25	24d	1	0.99mi
9219 Gulf Beach Hwy Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1472	$1,249	$0.85	24d	1	1.06mi
2600 S Blue Angel Pkwy Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$2,015	$1.71	15d	18	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $185,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-02-20
    status Active 1086-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1086 chars)

    OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY MAY 23 NOON TILL 4PM! COME SEE THIS HOUSE Welcome to 8838 Mary Fleming Dr — a beautifully refreshed home that blends comfort, style, and peace of mind. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath property has been thoughtfully updated and is truly move-in ready. Enjoy the confidence of a brand-new roof (January 2026). Step inside to discover new vinyl flooring that flows throughout the main living areas, creating a clean, modern look. Each bedroom features plush new carpet, adding warmth and comfort where it matters most. Natural light fills the home, highlighting a functional layout designed for everyday living. Whether you're relaxing in the living space or hosting friends and family, this home offers an inviting atmosphere that feels instantly welcoming. Perfect for first-time buyers, downsizing, or investors, this property combines low-maintenance living with fresh updates—so you can spend more time enjoying your home and less time working on it. Don’t miss your opportunity to own a stylish, affordable home with major updates already completed.

17. 2025-12-15
    historical 1086-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1086 chars)

    OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY MAY 23 NOON TILL 4PM! COME SEE THIS HOUSE Welcome to 8838 Mary Fleming Dr — a beautifully refreshed home that blends comfort, style, and peace of mind. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath property has been thoughtfully updated and is truly move-in ready. Enjoy the confidence of a brand-new roof (January 2026). Step inside to discover new vinyl flooring that flows throughout the main living areas, creating a clean, modern look. Each bedroom features plush new carpet, adding warmth and comfort where it matters most. Natural light fills the home, highlighting a functional layout designed for everyday living. Whether you're relaxing in the living space or hosting friends and family, this home offers an inviting atmosphere that feels instantly welcoming. Perfect for first-time buyers, downsizing, or investors, this property combines low-maintenance living with fresh updates—so you can spend more time enjoying your home and less time working on it. Don’t miss your opportunity to own a stylish, affordable home with major updates already completed.

18. 2025-12-13
    listed $190,000 Active 1086-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1086 chars)

    OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY MAY 23 NOON TILL 4PM! COME SEE THIS HOUSE Welcome to 8838 Mary Fleming Dr — a beautifully refreshed home that blends comfort, style, and peace of mind. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath property has been thoughtfully updated and is truly move-in ready. Enjoy the confidence of a brand-new roof (January 2026). Step inside to discover new vinyl flooring that flows throughout the main living areas, creating a clean, modern look. Each bedroom features plush new carpet, adding warmth and comfort where it matters most. Natural light fills the home, highlighting a functional layout designed for everyday living. Whether you're relaxing in the living space or hosting friends and family, this home offers an inviting atmosphere that feels instantly welcoming. Perfect for first-time buyers, downsizing, or investors, this property combines low-maintenance living with fresh updates—so you can spend more time enjoying your home and less time working on it. Don’t miss your opportunity to own a stylish, affordable home with major updates already completed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $917 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,536 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$619/yr (+$52/mo · 67.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,617
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$917
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,649
• − Management: −$1,649
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$268
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$64
• After-tax cash flow: $2,868/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warrington

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #12396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrington, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,226
• Household income: $73,540
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.23%
• Current HPI: 548.03
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $190,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $917 · +20.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.