70 Lewis Ave · Atlantic Beach, NY 11509

$2,950,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,390 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2006 5,950 sqft lot $870/sqft · 78% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful and spacious custom-built Center Hall Colonial offering 4 bedrooms and 4.5 baths, perfectly situated in a prime location of Atlantic Beach. This one-of-a-kind home blends Mediterranean and contemporary design, creating a bright, open, and inviting atmosphere throughout. The home features a grand foyer, a formal living room with a fireplace, a formal dining room, and a comfortable den, creating inviting spaces for entertaining. The dual kitchen is designed for everyday living, complete with granite countertops, a center island, and top-of-the-line appliances. The oversized primary suite is a true retreat, boasting vaulted ceilings, custom moldings, a luxurious spa-like bath with jacuzzi tub and separate shower, and a Juliet balcony. Hardwood floors, high ceilings, detailed moldings, recessed lighting, central vacuum, and in-ground sprinklers enhance the home’s exceptional quality and craftsmanship. The full finished basement provides a huge additional living and recreational space with a full bath—ideal for guests or activities. Outdoor living is equally impressive, featuring a beautifully landscaped yard, patio, garage, and room for a pool. Additional highlights include 2-zone heating and central air conditioning. Located a short distance from the private resident-only beach, boardwalk, and houses of worship, this home is move-in ready and perfect for year-round or summer living.

Key facts

• Juliet balcony
• Grand foyer
• Spa like bath

Tags

• CUSTOM BUILT
• GRAND FOYER
• SPA LIKE BATH
• JULIET BALCONY
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• LANDSCAPED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $2.95M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($29k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.75M (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.75M (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#376 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Lawrence Union Free School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #399 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $315k of equity ($20k loan paydown + $295k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $826k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$507k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.77M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $725k; list at $2.95M implies a 307% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,754,667 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.13%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,661,821
• List price: $2,950,000
• Delta: 77.52%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1590 Beech St	0.42mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,300 (-3%)	6mo	$1,325,000	$402	64
113 Dutchess Blvd	0.38mi	4/4.5	3,530 (+4%)	19mo	$3,400,000	$963	60
1830 Bay Blvd	0.15mi	5/5.0 (+1)	3,602 (+6%)	20mo	$3,700,000	$1,027	59
1482 Park St	0.60mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,500 (+3%)	12mo	$1,532,000	$438	46
1515 Park St	0.55mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,600 (+6%)	17mo	$1,350,000	$375	43
139 Coronado St	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,957 (-13%)	6mo	$1,668,000	$564	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $1,758,128
• Equity at exit: $2,657,594

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.12×
• Total profit: $5,057,711
• Equity at exit: $5,731,201

Cash invested: $826,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11509

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $27,547 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$15,470
• Tax from tax record: −$2,221 /mo · $26,647/yr
• Insurance: −$1,229
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,785
• Net cashflow: $2,382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $24,532

Max offer price $2,950,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $737,500
• Closing costs: $88,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1701 Bay Blvd Atlantic Beach, NY	4.0	3.0	2730	$25,000	$9.16	24d	1	0.21mi
77 Tioga Ave Atlantic Beach, NY	4.0	2.5	2800	$5,800	$2.07	24d	1	0.30mi
29 Cayuga Ave Atlantic Beach, NY	3.0	3.0	2424	$30,000	$12.38	43d	1	0.41mi
49 Harborview W Lawrence, NY	4.0	4.5	3877	$35,000	$9.03	43d	1	1.20mi
40 Trenton Ave East Atlantic Beach, NY	4.0	3.0	2400	$10,000	$4.17	1d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-04-07
    listed $2,950,000 Active 1424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1424 chars)

    Beautiful and spacious custom-built Center Hall Colonial offering 4 bedrooms and 4.5 baths, perfectly situated in a prime location of Atlantic Beach. This one-of-a-kind home blends Mediterranean and contemporary design, creating a bright, open, and inviting atmosphere throughout. The home features a grand foyer, a formal living room with a fireplace, a formal dining room, and a comfortable den, creating inviting spaces for entertaining. The dual kitchen is designed for everyday living, complete with granite countertops, a center island, and top-of-the-line appliances. The oversized primary suite is a true retreat, boasting vaulted ceilings, custom moldings, a luxurious spa-like bath with jacuzzi tub and separate shower, and a Juliet balcony. Hardwood floors, high ceilings, detailed moldings, recessed lighting, central vacuum, and in-ground sprinklers enhance the home’s exceptional quality and craftsmanship. The full finished basement provides a huge additional living and recreational space with a full bath—ideal for guests or activities. Outdoor living is equally impressive, featuring a beautifully landscaped yard, patio, garage, and room for a pool. Additional highlights include 2-zone heating and central air conditioning. Located a short distance from the private resident-only beach, boardwalk, and houses of worship, this home is move-in ready and perfect for year-round or summer living.

16. 2015-09-30
    historical
17. 2015-06-16
    listed $1,799,000
18. 2013-10-14
    historical
19. 2013-03-29
    listed $1,950,000
20. 2006-03-31
    soldstatus $725,000
21. 2005-03-29
    soldstatus $660,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $26,647 · $2,221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $38,251 · $3,188/mo
• Expected delta: +$11,604/yr (+$967/mo · 43.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $330,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$165,246
• − Property taxes: −$26,647
• − Insurance: −$20,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$26,445
• − Management: −$26,445
• − Depreciation: −$85,818
• Taxable loss: −$20,316
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,876
• After-tax cash flow: $33,454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616830
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $91,008
• Composite: 42.14/100
• National rank: #3307
• State rank: #399 of 590 in NY

Livability — Atlantic Beach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #376
• US rank: #6459

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atlantic Beach, NY
• City population: 1,747
• Population (ZIP): 1,747

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 8% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.04%
• Current HPI: 392.2777
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+347.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $2,950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-16 Listed $1,799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-14 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-29 Listed $1,950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $725,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $660,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $26,647 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.