206 Hub Dr · Mission, TX 78574

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Manufactured public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1991 5,502 sqft lot $127/sqft · 45% above area Est $90k · 45% over $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Texas Winter Retreat, enjoy warm Texas winter in Wagon City North, and all its amenities, such as outdoor swimming pool, shuffleboard, and clubhouse, all conveniently located near shopping, grocery stores and medical services. This delightful 2-bedroom, 2 full bath with metal roof and carport, comes furnished with front-facing living room to enjoy natural sunlight, spacious equipped kitchen with all the appliances including dishwasher, dining area for your home cooked meals, oversized master bedroom for your relaxation, with walk in closet, plus indoor laundry room. Enjoy the warm days and cool nights on your covered deck, plus 1 car garage with a storage/workshop for your hobbies. Great for those seeking a quiet and low-cost maintenance lifestyle year-round! A must see!

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Walk in closet
• Indoor laundry room

Tags

• OUTDOOR SWIMMING POOL
• SPACIOUS EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED MASTER BEDROOM
• WALK IN CLOSET
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• COVERED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.46%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,900
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: 44.61%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 Chuck Wagon Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+3%)	2mo	$99,900	$95	79
201 Hub Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (+6%)	3mo	$105,900	$97	76
113 Chuck Wagon Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	990 (-3%)	7mo	$120,000	$121	69
107 Axle Dr	0.15mi	2/1.5 (-1)	924 (-10%)	5mo	$75,000	$81	66
2703 Tack Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,074 (+5%)	5mo	$89,900	$84	64
2611 Tack Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	988 (-4%)	6mo	$89,900	$91	64
107 Wheel Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	972 (-5%)	18mo	$89,000	$92	63
217 Covered Wagon Dr	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-10%)	4mo	$74,500	$81	55
115 Bundle Wagon Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+3%)	16mo	$99,900	$95	54
202 Stage Coach Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	900 (-12%)	9mo	$142,500	$158	51
2601 Tack Dr	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	948 (-7%)	23mo	$119,000	$126	41
105 Covered Wagon Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+12%)	20mo	$89,900	$78	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-4,658
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $17,257
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78574

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,551 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,340/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,226

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
502 Thornwood St Mission, TX	4.0	2.0	1260	$1,600	$1.27	14d	1	0.54mi
702 W 25th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,650	$1.20	19d	1	0.61mi
707 Palmer Rd Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	760	$1,200	$1.58	14d	1	0.76mi
707 Palmer Rd Unit 3 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	960	$1,350	$1.41	14d	1	0.76mi
3401 N Mayberry Rd Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$961	$0.84	43d	1	0.78mi
712 Palmer Rd Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$1,100	$1.15	14d	1	0.81mi
2008 N Cummings Ave Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,300	$1.28	43d	1	0.84mi
3108 Highland Park Ave Mission, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	19d	1	0.88mi
2002 Thornton St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,300	$0.95	43d	1	0.90mi
1811 Perkins Ave Unit 7 Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$750	$0.88	14d	1	0.97mi
1809 Ramirez St Unit 2 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1033	$1,300	$1.26	43d	1	1.06mi
3006 Gabriel St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,600	$1.12	43d	1	1.28mi
3102 Gabriel St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,800	$1.31	43d	1	1.28mi
221 W 14th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,100	$0.85	43d	1	1.30mi
2903 Estevan St #4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,399	$1.32	19d	1	1.30mi
2903 Estevan St #3 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,400	$1.34	14d	1	1.30mi
2905 Estevan St #3 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1044	$1,300	$1.25	23d	1	1.30mi
2905 Estevan St #4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,300	$1.25	43d	1	1.30mi
1400 N Dunlap Ave Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	1068	$800	$0.75	19d	1	1.31mi
1827 Highland Park Ave Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	43d	1	1.31mi
1805 Ramirez St Unit 4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,095	$1.07	43d	1	1.36mi
1801 Highland Park Ave Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1173	$1,500	$1.28	19d	1	1.36mi
1804 Ramirez St Unit 1 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,250	$1.23	23d	1	1.38mi
1707 Highland Park Ave Unit 4-B Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1336	$1,200	$0.90	14d	1	1.38mi
1006 Fairway Dr Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,100	$1.03	43d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-02-05
    listed $130,000 Active 783-char remark

    Show marketing remark (783 chars)

    Texas Winter Retreat, enjoy warm Texas winter in Wagon City North, and all its amenities, such as outdoor swimming pool, shuffleboard, and clubhouse, all conveniently located near shopping, grocery stores and medical services. This delightful 2-bedroom, 2 full bath with metal roof and carport, comes furnished with front-facing living room to enjoy natural sunlight, spacious equipped kitchen with all the appliances including dishwasher, dining area for your home cooked meals, oversized master bedroom for your relaxation, with walk in closet, plus indoor laundry room. Enjoy the warm days and cool nights on your covered deck, plus 1 car garage with a storage/workshop for your hobbies. Great for those seeking a quiet and low-cost maintenance lifestyle year-round! A must see!

16. 2010-03-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,340 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,379 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$39/yr (+$3/mo · 1.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,340
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,489
• − Management: −$1,489
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $1,127
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$270
• After-tax cash flow: $2,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,456
• Household income: $52,393
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 62% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 87%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 230.3323
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $130,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2010-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,340 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.