2397 Millvalley Dr · Florissant, MO 63031

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1976 7,440 sqft lot Est $176k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this income-producing investment property in the heart of Florissant! This solid 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers immediate cash flow potential with a strong rental history — previously leased at $1,700/month. Featuring four well-sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms, this home provides the space and functionality that tenants demand, making it an easy-to-rent asset in a consistently sought-after rental market. Whether you're a seasoned investor looking to expand your portfolio or a first-time buyer ready to enter the rental market, this property checks all the boxes.

Key facts

• 7,440 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1976

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (0.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 6.3% in Florissant — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#82 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lusher Elem. (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #967 of 1,115 statewide, top 88%, 379 students, 64% FRL); Hazelwood West High (math 16% / reading 42%, grade F, #407 of 521 statewide, top 78%, 2,042 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $115k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $168,590 (0.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.77%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2397 Millvalley Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (0%)	1mo	$169,900	$154	94
2377 Farflung Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,100 (0%)	2mo	$204,900	$186	90
2334 White Ash Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,189 (+8%)	2mo	$189,900	$160	77
2171 Farthing Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,189 (+8%)	3mo	$195,000	$164	72
2216 Foggy Bottom Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,189 (+8%)	2mo	$130,000	$109	70
2572 Auburnhill Ct	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,189 (+8%)	2mo	$185,000	$156	66
2543 Saddle Ridge Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,189 (+8%)	3mo	$190,000	$160	63
1315 Thrush Ln	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-1%)	3mo	$159,900	$146	60
1721 Saddle Ridge Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,189 (+8%)	3mo	$165,000	$139	59
1610 Jackson Ln	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,025 (-7%)	4mo	$174,900	$171	51
1910 Flamingo Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,025 (-7%)	1mo	$199,500	$195	51
2490 Mullanphy Ln	0.72mi	3/1.0	952 (-14%)	2mo	$167,500	$176	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-13,290
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $13,159
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63031

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,686 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,170/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,446

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2316 Millvalley Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	3.0	1189	$1,696	$1.43	15d	1	0.13mi
1545 Swan Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,590	$1.49	7d	1	0.47mi
1315 Bobolink Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1025	$1,700	$1.66	12d	1	0.74mi
2160 Splendor Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	3d	1	0.78mi
1095 Cedar Pl Florissant, MO	3.0	1.5	1107	$1,710	$1.54	2d	1	0.85mi
2400 Teakwood Manor Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,725	$1.25	44d	1	0.86mi
2245 Lindsay Ln Florissant, MO	4.0	2.0	1466	$1,800	$1.23	16d	1	0.95mi
3015 Matlock Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	1.0	950	$1,475	$1.55	44d	1	1.00mi
1395 Bluebird Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,599	$1.37	16d	1	1.11mi
1540 Aspen Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	912	$1,395	$1.53	7d	1	1.12mi
2485 Jenkee Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,376	$1.43	2d	1	1.18mi
1095 Humes Ln Florissant, MO	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,650	$1.50	4d	1	1.19mi
2857 Dawnview Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	1.0	890	$1,325	$1.49	7d	1	1.27mi
1145 Swallow Ln Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,645	$1.28	3d	1	1.31mi
840 Dawnview Ct Florissant, MO	3.0	1.5	750	$900	$1.20	24d	1	1.40mi
775 Sherwood Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	1.0	1023	$1,690	$1.65	44d	1	1.47mi
2942 Chance Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,700	$1.86	12d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   listed $169,900 Active
3. 2004-12-13
   soldstatus $114,900
4. 2004-12-13
   soldstatus $114,900
5. 1989-10-01
   soldstatus
6. 1984-06-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,170 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,170 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,170
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,618
• − Management: −$1,618
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$485
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$116
• After-tax cash flow: $2,388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Florissant

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #5406

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 69,104
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 50,196
• Household income: $70,811
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1279.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 41% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Swedish 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.57%
• Current HPI: 202.7192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+47.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $169,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $114,900 Public Records
• 2004-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $114,900 Public Records
• 1989-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,170 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.