3130 Winchester Estates Loop · Kathleen, FL 33810

$268,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,252 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2010 8,581 sqft lot $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great home available in Winchester Estates. This 2010 home is very well maintained and it has many upgrades . This open split floor plan features a new roof (2026), new water heater (2026), Newer AC (2022), and paint (2024). Make your appointment today to view this great property.

Key facts

• Newer ac
• New water heater
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEWER AC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; No lease restrictions reported
• HOA & community: Winchester Estates HOA (annual fee $375; $31.25/month equivalent); HOA fee required; Community street lights; Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; South-facing; Residential property
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.2-acre lot
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open floorplan; Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom floorplan; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in garage; Irrigation equipment

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $268k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($34/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#752 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Socrum Elementary School (math 44% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 546 students, 65% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $268k implies a 1118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,648 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-43,785
• Equity at exit: $39,960

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-40,088
• Equity at exit: $23,172

Cash invested: $75,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 504
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,156 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,833/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,153

Max offer price $268,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,000
• Closing costs: $8,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3382 Winchester Estates Cir Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,999	$1.34	3d	1	0.23mi
3616 Tom Bryan Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,800	$1.76	23d	1	0.50mi
8755 Fort Socrum Village Way Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,000	$1.32	10d	1	0.64mi
8179 Woodvine Cir Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1463	$2,085	$1.43	3d	1	0.98mi
8426 Greystone Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,350	$1.51	23d	1	1.09mi
3923 Ward Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,595	$1.93	10d	1	1.20mi
3366 Mahogany Pointe Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,125	$1.36	3d	1	1.45mi
2132 Sabal Palm Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$1,550	$1.66	23d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $268,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $275,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
7. 2026-05-08
   price $275,000
8. 2026-04-23
   listed $280,000 Active
9. 2018-09-11
   historical
10. 2018-09-10
    status Active
11. 2018-09-07
    status Pending
12. 2018-08-30
    listed $149,900 Active
13. 2010-04-19
    soldstatus $22,000
14. 2009-01-08
    soldstatus $810,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,833 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,224 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: +$392/yr (+$33/mo · 21.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,012
• − Property taxes: −$1,833
• − Insurance: −$1,340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,070
• − Management: −$2,070
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$7,796
• Taxable loss: −$4,616
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,108
• After-tax cash flow: $1,142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kathleen

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #752
• US rank: #16450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 52,734
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-66.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-30 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 2009-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $810,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,833 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.